Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FNUS73 KLMK 211318
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Spot Forecast for Taylorsville Lake WMA...KDFWR
National Weather Service Louisville, KY
818 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Unseasonably warm weather will continue today...with moisture
increasing as an upper-level disturbance passes south of the region. Dispersion
will be good during the heat of the afternoon in spite of plenty of cloud cover.
Rain chances will increase late in the afternoon...with numerous light showers
expected this evening.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...
                    max 2600-3500 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....good this afternoon (42100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 increasing to 21.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........57     76     88     94     91
Weather cov.....                     CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............58     65     69     71     69
RH..............67     58     55     53     59
20 ft wind......S 5    S 7    SW 7   S 6    S 3
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1400   2600   3500   2700
Transport wind..S 9    S 13   S 15   S 14   S 10
Dispersion......2      2      2      2      2
LVORI...........3      2      2      2      2
ADI.............9      15     14     23     16
VRate kt-ft/10004      15     34     42     24

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the evening, then chance of rain showers after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......decreasing to 500 ft AGL after sunset.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................4.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........94     98     96     94     95     97
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............67     63     61     59     57     57
RH..............63     75     84     87     90     90
20 ft wind......SE 2   SE 2   SE 3   S 2    S 3    S 2
20 ft wind gust.10     5      10     10     5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   500    700    500    500    800
Transport wind..S 7    S 6    S 10   SE 9   SE 9   SE 10
Dispersion......2      2      2      2      2      2
LVORI...........3      4      5      6      8      9
ADI.............2      1      5      4      6      5
VRate kt-ft/100010     3      7      4      4      7

$$
Forecaster...RAS
Requested by...Josh Lilllpop
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702544.0/LMK
.EMAIL josh.lillpop@ky.gov



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