Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 221140
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Allen...USFWS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
740 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0800 EDT on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
For the fire area today, warm and humid conditions despite
widespread mid clouds. There is a threat for some isolated
showers or storms this afternoon as a mid level low pressure area
moves through the region. Some isolated showers will linger into
the evening hours though storms should diminish with loss of
heating.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 5300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 78545 mph-ft.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)         8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............57  55  53  51  53  56  57  60  66  69
Weather cov........                        SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.......                        RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp...............77  80  83  85  86  87  88  88  88  87
RH.................85  79  74  70  65  63  59  59  61  63
20 FT wind dir.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd.....5   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust....                        10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)......0.9 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3
Transp wind dir....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd....9   9   8   8   8   9   10  13  14  15
Haines index.......5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..8   16  24  30  36  44  54  64  74  79

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then a slight chance of showers in the late
                    evening and early morning.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 1150 mph-ft.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)         6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)............70     73     76     79     88     90
Weather cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........S CHC  S CHC
Temp...............86     83     80     78     77     76
RH.................65     72     77     82     85     87
20 ft wind.........SW 7   SW 7   SW 6   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust....10     10
Mix hgt (ft).......4700   3500   2100   1000   300    300
Transport wind.....SW 14  SW 10  SW 8   SW 7   SW 6   SW 5
Haines index.......4      3      4      4      3      4
VRate mph-ft/1000..66     36     16     6      1      1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......Max 6000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 10 mph, increasing to 16 to 21
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 124544 mph-ft.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............89     85     86     86     87     68
Weather cov........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type.......NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp...............76     78     83     87     90     92
RH.................90     85     74     65     62     56
20 ft wind.........SW 6   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust....       15     15     15     20     20
Mix hgt (ft).......600    1400   3400   4700   5400   5800
Transport wind.....SW 3   SW 5   SW 16  W 21   W 16   SW 20
Haines index.......4      3      4      4      3      4
VRate mph-ft/1000..2      7      54     95     87     116

$$
Forecaster...Lonka
Requested by...Gregg Buckalew
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711417.0/MHX
.EMAIL gregg_buckalew@fws.gov


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