Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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827
FNUS74 KMOB 191300
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Eglin Rx F-9...E.N.R.
National Weather Service Mobile AL
800 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
develop today with high rain chances expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday, especially closer to the coast.  Fair dispersion values
prevail each day through Wednesday, except for generally good
dispersion values near the coast Tuesday and Wednesday.  Afternoon
relative humidities will be well above critical levels.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1300, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300-3100 ft AGL increasing to 3700-4900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height (m)...396-945 meters AGL increasing to 1128-1494
                    meters AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 3 to 5 meters/second.
Dispersion index....15 increasing to 30 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  55  59  62  68  71  74  80  83  84
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............78  83  86  88  89  89  88  87  86  85
RH..............88  74  65  61  59  59  61  63  65  67
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   7   7   8   10  10  10  8
20 FT wind gust.5   10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.2 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.7
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  12
Trans wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Trans spd (m/s).3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5
Dispersion idx..12  18  25  28  33  34  32  30  30  33
LVORI...........4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 0100, then 16-25 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200-3700 ft AGL decreasing to 1200-1600 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height (m)...671-1128 meters AGL decreasing to 366-488
                    meters AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 13 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 4 to 6 meters/second.
Dispersion index....35 decreasing to 16.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........86  87  85  80  78  78  79  79  80  82  83  86
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  50  50  50  50  50  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............84  82  80  77  76  75  75  76  76  76  76  76
RH..............70  74  79  87  90  90  90  87  87  87  87  87
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3
Mix hgt (km)....1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
Transp wind spd.13  13  12  12  10  12  12  13  13  12  12  13
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
Trans spd (m/s).6   6   5   5   4   5   5   6   6   5   5   6
Dispersion idx..35  17  15  14  14  14  14  15  15  16  16  17
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   4   4   5   4   4   5   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 0700, then >25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200-1700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...366-518 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 18 mph.
Transport winds m/s.East 7 to 8 meters/second.
Dispersion index....18 increasing to 35.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........91  94  94  94  94  94  94  94  94  94  94  94
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).60  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Temp............76  76  81  74  75  74  73  73  73  74  75  75
RH..............87  87  74  93  90  93  97  100 100 97  94  90
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   10  10  10  11  11  11  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.15  16  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  17  18
Trans wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Trans spd (m/s).7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Dispersion idx..18  32  33  34  35  35  35  35  35  36  36  37
LVORI...........4   4   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...29
Requested by...Brett Williams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711265.0/MOB
.EMAIL brett.williams.4@us.af.mil



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