Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FNUS73 KMPX 221100
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Beaver Pile Burn...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
600 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on September 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Today will be a hot and windy one, but dew points in the
70s will limit the low end of RH, staying above 50%.  Gusts will begin
developing mid morning and increase to around 25-30MPH by this afternoon.
10 day precip estimate is for about 2-3" of rainfall over the next 10 days.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    precipitation 30 percent.
Temperature.........74 at ignition...Max 91.
RH..................87 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise South winds 11 to 16 mph.
                    Gusts up to 30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 400-2200 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2800-4000 ft AGL in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph increasing to 37 to 38 mph.
Mixing winds........South 16 to 24 mph increasing to 37 to 38 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /27600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /55900 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (71000
                    knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............74  77  80  83  85  88  90  91  90  88
RH..............87  82  74  70  65  61  58  56  56  61
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  11  13  13  13  16  16  15
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  25  25  25  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  21  23  24  26  29  32  35  37  38
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixing wind spd.20  21  23  24  26  29  32  35  37  38
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100028  40  56  71  91  96  104 108 111 110

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    precipitation 20 percent.
Temperature.........Min 70.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    until early morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1600-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1200 ft AGL
                    late in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 31 to 39 mph becoming southwest 9 to 16
                    mph.
Mixing winds........South 31 to 39 mph becoming southwest 9 to 16
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (63400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    good (5300-47300 knot-ft) in the late evening
                    and overnight.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM      10 PM     1 AM      4 AM
Temp............86        80        77        75
RH..............63        69        71        79
20 FT wind......S 13G25   S 13G25   S 12G20   S 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....3200      2000      800       700
Transport wind..S 39      S 37      S 29      S 16
Mixing wind.....S 39      S 37      S 29      S 16
Haines index....3         4         5         5
SDspl kt-ft/1000109       63        19        10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 40
                    percent.
Temperature.........Max 83.
RH..................Min 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph until late afternoon
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL increasing to 1700-3200 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    700-1200 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph decreasing to 8 to 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........South 7 to 16 mph decreasing to 8 to 10 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3900-44900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    poor to good (5200-55100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to or moderate.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
Temp............70        75        81        83
RH..............90        82        69        65
20 FT wind......S 5       S 6G10    S 6G10    S 5
Mix hgt (ft)....600       1900      3200      1700
Transport wind..SW 7      S 13      S 20      S 14
Mixing wind.....SW 7      S 13      S 20      S 14
Haines index....5         5         5         4
SDspl kt-ft/10004         21        55        21

$$
Forecaster...DEVINNY
Requested by...Ross Meyer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716122.0/MPX
.EMAIL Ross.meyer@state.mn.us



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.