Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FNUS71 KPHI 032116 AAA
FWSPHI

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRESCO COMPLEX FIRE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
516 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1619 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 5 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1000 FT AGL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS....NONE.

TIME (EDT)          4PM  5PM
SKY (%).............100  100
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51   52
RH..................89   85
20 FT WIND DIR......E    E
20 FT WIND SPD......5    5
20 FT WIND GUST.....
MIX HGT (FT)........800  1000
CWR.................10   10
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10   10
LAL.................1    1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
                    THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-800 FT AGL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS....ONE-TENTH INCH OR LESS.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............96     94     96     98     100    100
WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51     50     48     47     47     46
RH..................85     89     95     98     100    100
20 FT WIND..........E 3    E 3    E 2    SE 2   SE 2   SE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........800    600    400    300    200    100
CWR.................20     20     30     30     30     40
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20     20     30     30     30     40
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS....ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............100    100    99     99     99     98
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................46     48     51     54     55     55
RH..................100    95     85     79     77     75
20 FT WIND..........E 2    E 2    E 3    E 5    E 6    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      7      10     12
MIX HGT (FT)........300    600   900   1200   1600   2000
CWR.................40     40     50     50     50     50
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40     40     50     50     50     50
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...KLEIN
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160503.CRESC.01/PHI


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