Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FNUS71 KPHI 222000
FWSPHI

Spot Forecast for Longwood Gardens Prescribed Fire...Longwood Gardens
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Large high pressure across the upper Great Lakes region this
afternoon will slide southeast and crest over our region Thursday. A
warm front will lift to our northwest Friday, while a backdoor cold
front pushes through the area Saturday. This front is forecast to
stall near the southern portions of the area or just to our south
into early next week. A couple of low pressure systems may form
along the boundary and move eastward as well.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind shift..........Winds will become light and variable
                    through the afternoon
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 5100-5700 ft
                    AGL.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   6   6   5   5   5   7   9   11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............26  30  34  36  39  41  42  43  43
RH..............44  35  30  27  23  21  20  20  21
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   NW  NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 2.2 3.4 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.1

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........66 percent.
Wind shift..........Winds will be light and variable through the
                    overnight hours.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......1600-3500 ft AGL...decreasing to 0 ft AGL early
                    in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13  15  17  21  25  29  34  38  42  47  52  57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  40  38  36  35  35  34  33  33  32  32  31
RH..............23  26  29  33  38  40  43  49  51  56  58  66
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10                                      10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of freezing rain and sleet in the morning. A
                    chance of rain.
CWR.................0 percent...increasing to 20 percent through
                    the morning and afternoon...decreasing to
                    10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind shift..........None expected.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL...increasing to 1400-2400 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........62  67  72  74  76  79  81  83  85  82  79  76
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....        FZR RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   20  20  20  30  30  30  20  20  20  10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   20  20  20  30  30  30  20  20  20  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............31  32  32  36  39  42  45  47  48  49  51  51
RH..............69  69  72  64  59  55  51  49  49  50  48  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   8   9   10  10  12  12  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.4

$$
Forecaster...Johnson
Requested by...Erik Stefferud
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704941.0/PHI
.EMAIL estefferud@longwoodgardens.org


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