Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FNUS71 KRLX 260119
FWSRLX

Spot Forecast for Buckhorn...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Charleston WV
919 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2200 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a stout
cold front through the bulk of the day Sunday. While the chances for
rain begin in the morning, the higher chances begin around the
11 AM to Noon time frame where wetting rains will likely occur.
Dewpoints will rise into the 50s, yielding higher RH values than
seen in the past few days.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........SE 3
 Slope/valley.......Light winds...becoming south around 5 mph late.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL...decreasing to 0-1700 ft AGL late
                    in the evening...then increasing to 2300 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph...increasing to around 14 mph
                    late.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73  75  77  80  82  80  76  74
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Cch of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............66  64  64  63  63  62  62  61
RH..............61  65  66  68  68  69  70  72
SL/VL wind dir..E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   S
SL/VL wind spd..4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
SL/VL wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   5   3   3   5   8   12  14
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers. Thunderstorms
                    likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent...increasing to 90 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300...then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400...then 9-15 strikes until 1600...then
                    16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........SE 8
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500-2300 ft AGL...increasing to 4200 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon...then increasing to
                    6000-7300 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon...decreasing to 3700 ft AGL
                    late...decreasing to 1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 20 mph...increasing to 21 to 27 mph
                    early in the afternoon...then decreasing to 7
                    to 14 mph late.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  90  90  91  98  99  98  95  93  94  95  96
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY
CWR.............20  30  40  50  60  70  80  80  90  90  90  90
Cch of pcpn (%).20  30  40  50  60  70  80  80  90  90  90  90
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   3   3   4   4
Temp............60  60  60  59  61  62  63  64  65  65  64  63
RH..............73  74  75  78  75  71  72  73  73  76  79  83
SL/VL wind dir..S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
SL/VL wind spd..5   6   6   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
SL/VL wind gust.        10      10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.3 4.2 6.3 7.3 6.0 3.7 1.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  13  12  12  13  15  20  24  25  21  14  7
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Thunderstorms
                    likely in the evening. Showers. A chance of
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................80 percent...decreasing to 30 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900...then 9-15 strikes
                    until 0200...then 1-8 strikes until 0300...then
                    No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........SW 3
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms until early morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......100-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 6 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........91  86  78  76  73  71  70  67  65  66  67  67
Weather cov.....DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............80  70  60  60  60  60  60  50  50  40  30  30
Cch of pcpn (%).80  70  60  60  60  60  60  50  50  40  30  30
LAL.............4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   1   1   1
Temp............65  67  63  61  60  58  56  56  56  56  55  54
RH..............76  67  76  78  82  86  93  90  90  90  90  93
SL/VL wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
SL/VL wind spd..6   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
SL/VL wind gust.15  10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...26
Requested by...Scottie Kiser
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704923.4/RLX



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