Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 241149
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Glade Mtn. Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
649 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low pressure was over Missouri with a cold front trailing into
the Southern Plains. Winds today ahead of the front will start
from the southwest and will gradually turn to the south-southeast
this afternoon. Wind speeds will increase at higher elevations
overnight, with gusts of 20-25 mph possible.

By Saturday morning the low will be in the Great Lakes with front
extending into western Virginia. The cold front moves east across our
region Saturday and will be east of the burn site by 11AM. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front.

In the wake of the front, expect gusty northwest winds Saturday night
and Sunday morning. High pressure returns to the area on Sunday with
winds becoming light by Sunday late afternoon.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 8 to 17 mph...increasing to 18 to 23 mph
                    late.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7...increasing to 36.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  20  20  19  19  24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............60  61  62  63  64  63
RH..............66  63  61  59  57  59
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.7
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..14  16  17  18  20  23
LVORI...........3   3   1   1   1   1
ADI.............20  28  32  35  39  40
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A chance of showers
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms late.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent...increasing to 30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 17 to 26 mph...becoming southwest 25 to
                    32 mph after midnight.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................20...decreasing to 15 late in the
                    evening...then increasing to 26 after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........33     42     54     55     61     73
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     20
Temp............61     59     57     56     55     54
RH..............61     65     70     71     74     78
20 ft wind......S 9    S 10   S 11   S 12   S 13   S 15
20 ft wind gust.15     15     20     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   700    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind......S 25   S 23   S 15   S 25   S 32   SW 30
LVORI...........3      3      4      3      3      3
ADI.............23     20     13     23     29     26
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent)...then becoming
                    partly sunny (45-55 percent). Showers likely
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    morning...then a chance of showers in the
                    afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......60 percent in the morning...then decreasing to
                    30 percent in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 17 mph with gusts up to 35
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL...increasing to 3000 ft AGL late.
Mixing winds........West 24 to 28 mph.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................32...increasing to 65.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     79     83     72     50     54
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
CWR.............50     60     50     50     30     20
Temp............52     51     48     45     43     41
RH..............85     86     83     73     67     62
20 ft wind......SW 14  SW 13  W 14   W 16   W 17   W 17
20 ft wind gust.25     25     30     30     35     35
Mix hgt (ft)....300    600    1300   1300   1900   3000
Mixing wind......SW 28  SW 25  W 24   W 26   W 28   W 26
LVORI...........4      4      3      3      1      1
ADI.............30     27     36     40     52     65
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2      3

$$
Forecaster...Silverman
Requested by...Harold Sutherland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702500.1/RNK


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