Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 301608
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1206 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS ENTERING LAKE
MICHIGAN.
:
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN STALL BY MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FOCUS AREA WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH. HOWEVER
LOCALLY HIGHER POINT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK STATE ARE RUNNING ON AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF AUGUST EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WHERE THEY AVERAGE BELOW TO IN SOME CASES
MUCH BELOW NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS ARE LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WHERE
MANY GAUGED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE PASSING FLOWS IN THE LOWEST 10
PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR 30 AUGUST. IN FACT...THE
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RHODE ISLAND WAS REPORTING A RECORD LOW
FLOW FOR TODAY WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE SINCE RECORDS GO BACK 74
YEARS.
:
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN NEW YORK STATE AND INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. RISES COULD POSSIBLY BE A LITTLE GREATER OVER SOME OF OUR
FLASHY HEADWATER RIVERS IF THEY ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL. NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                RON HORWOOD




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