Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 042355
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKST WEDNESDAY 4 MARCH 2015

FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 9 MARCH 2015

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING
SEA...AS WELL AS THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH
MONDAY...WHILE A LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ185-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE ALASKA COAST NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM TO
59.5N 162.1W TO 59.1N 170.3W TO 61.3N 173.7W TO 62.1N 178.2E AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE RUSSIAN COAST. LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF ICE ARE
ALSO PRESENT IN SHALLOW BAYS WITHIN BRISTOL BAY. THE ICE EDGE IS
MAINLY OPEN WATER TO 3 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG SEA ICE.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE ICE EDGE THROUGH MONDAY. THE
OVERALL ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST 25 TO 40
NM BY MONDAY.

-COOK INLET-
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR WITH
IT.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE COAST NEAR 60.5N 151.3W TO 60.7N
151.4W TO 60.3N 151.8W TO 60.3N 152.4W. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER.
LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF ICE ARE ALSO PRESENT IN SHALLOW BAYS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF LOWER COOK INLET.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET THROUGH MONDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL ICE PACK WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THICKNESS AND CONCENTRATION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL STRIPS OF ICE MAY BE CAUGHT IN THE RIP NEAR THE
WEST FORELAND DAILY WITH THE TIDE CHANGE.

PLEASE NOTE...COOK INLET SEA ICE CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
TIDES.

$$



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