Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 271834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING FROM W
ATLC SW...AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS PARENT HIGH IS SHIFTING NE
ATTM. MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND SE TEXAS THAT HAS
INTERACTED WITH A WEAK S/W MOVING E ACROSS TEXAS AND COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING FOR ANOTHER SQUALL LINE AGAIN MOVING SE ACROSS SE
TEXAS AND LA COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
E TO SE WIND FLOW DEPICTED BY RECENT OBS AND SCAT PASS. YUCATAN
TROUGH PROVIDED SUFFICIENT WIND FIELD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
TO RAISE SEAS ACROSS SW PORTIONS TO 7 FT PER BUOY 42055. ELSEWHERE
SEAS GENERALLY 4-5 FT ATTM.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILING
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH
EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN...DRIFT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND A DECREASE IN OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS SAT AND SUN. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
S/W TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND EXTREME NW PORTIONS FRI FOR ROUND OF
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THERE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

LATEST DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALBEIT GRADUALLY SHRINKING IN AREAL
COVERAGE...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXPECT
FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN...4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS BROAD CENTRAL TROUGH SHIFTS
GRADUALLY WWD AND WEAKENS THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WATERS AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD SWD INTO
THE AREA...TO THE E OF THE WWD SHIFTING BROAD ATLC TROUGH. SEAS
ACROSS S HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT
FRI...AND PEAK AT 7-9 FT SAT EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

BROAD INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE...WITH SURFACE TROUGHING
NOW TAKING ON MORE CURVED CONFIGURATION. A 1333 UTC ASCAT PASS
SUGGESTED LLVL CYCLONIC SWIRL HAS LIKELY WORKED DOWN TO THE
SFC...WITH SFC LOW ESTIMATED NEAR 27N64.5W ATTM. SURFACE RIDGE IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT
PRES GRADIENT FOR STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW OUT
TO ABOUT 68-70W...AND STRONG SE WINDS WELL TO THE E OF TROUGH E
OF 60W. SEAS ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS OF THIS CIRCULATION 7-10 FT
WITH POSSIBLE PEAK TO 11 FT JUST N OF OUR WATERS AT 12Z. WIND
SURGE HAS PUSHED OLD BOUNDARY AND AREA OF MOISTURE SW ACROSS
BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND NOW MOVING INTO ATLC COASTS
OF GREATER ANTILLES...WITH NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ACROSS BAHAMAS INTO
CLOUD BAND. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO E PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH SOME LLVL TROFFING
CONTINUING TO SHIFT WWD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVING W
OF 70W. CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN BUT REORGANIZE ALONG ABOUT
60W THROUGH SAT BEFORE FILLING AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ESE SUN. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A LLVL TROF BETWEEN 60W AND 65W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN A VERY WEAK YET BROAD INVERTED
TROUGH FROM EXTREME SE BAHAMAS NE ACROSS E PORTIONS...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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