Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 210823
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
323 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIB WITH
STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AS HIGH IS NOW
ACROSS SW ALABAMA. RECENT 02-03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SOLID AREA
OF 25 KT THROUGH STRAITS WHERE SEAS MUST BE 8 OR 9 FT AGAINST
CURRENT ATTM AND HAVE ADJUSTED UP IN EXCESS OF GUIDANCE THERE.
ELSEWHERE...RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED FRESHENING SLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY GFS.
FRONT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN THE
LIFT N AS HIGH SHIFTS NE...AND LLVL FLOW OPENS UP TO NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH GREAT PLAINS. FRESH TO STRONG FLOW FORECAST
TO PERSIST N OF THE N DRIFTING BOUNDARY SAT AND SUN AND EXPECTED
TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS NE COASTAL WATERS AND FL PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AS LOW PRES SWEEPS ACROSS MS VALLEY AND FRONT LIFTS N AND
INTO SE U.S. AS WARM FRONT. FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
TO REACH TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY MON WITH REINFORCING FRONT
BLASTING SE MON...MERGING WITH FIRST FRONT AND REACHING TAMPA TO
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON THEN SWEEPING SE OF GULF
AND INTO NW CARIB EARLY WED. GFS SUGGESTS BRIEF OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED GALES OFF VERACRUZ TUE BEHIND FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO BAY
OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT. GFS PARALLEL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
AND WILL HOLD OFF ON POSSIBLE GALES FOR THE MOMENT...BUT LATEST
ECMWF NOW IN WITH GALES BEHIND SECONDARY PUSH BEHIND FRONT TUE
NIGHT...AND LOOKING MORE LIKELY.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND

WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN LIKELY INLAND ACROSS FAR ERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RECENT SCAT PASSES MISSED FAR NW CARIB BUT FEW OBS
AVAILABLE ATTM SUGGEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THERE TO 15-20
KT...AND BUOY 42056 NOW DOWN TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY STILL
AROUND 20 KT AND 6-7 OR 8 FT ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. WEAK LLVL
PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS E CARIB AND NOW APPROACHING 70W
REFLECTED IN RECENT ASCAT PASS WITH 20 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS.
STRONG WIND SURGE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWELL MOVING THROUGH
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM AND BLEEDING INTO E CARIB WATERS WHERE
BUOY 42060 REMAINS 7 FT IN 6-7 SEC WAVES...AND 41099 FLUCTUATING
9-10 FT RECENT HOURS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
THROUGH BAHAMAS AND STRAITS VEER TO ELY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH N OF
FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO MID ATLC STATES. STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT
THEN SHIFTS INTO SW ATLC AND BAHAMAS N OF N DRIFTING FRONTAL
REMNANTS SAT AND SUN...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS N CENTRAL
CARIB WHERE MAX WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8-9 FT ARE FORECAST
OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA. MEANWHILE...HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC TO
SLIDE E-NE AND REDUCE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH SUN...ONLY
FOR PRES GRADIENT TO BE REINFORCED AGAIN MON AND TUE FROM HIGH
SLIDING NE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. TRADITIONAL STRONG TRADES AND
BUILDING SEAS TO RETURN OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON.

NEXT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED AND INTO NW
CARIB WED...SIMILAR TO THIS RECENT FRONT. GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING
NLY GALES BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW CARIB WED..AS DOES
ECMWF. GRIDS PRESENTLY 30 KT AND LESS THERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N63W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
NW CUBA. RECENT SCAT PASSES INDICATING STRONG ENE FLOW N OF
BOUNDARY THROUGH BAHAMAS AND INTO STRAITS...WHERE WINDS ARE
BLOWING AGAINST CURRENT AND SEAS WILL RUN ABOVE GUIDANCE. ISOLATED
TSTMS CONTINUE EMBEDDED WITHIN BAND TO N OF FRONT. RECENT
ALTIMETER PASS ALSO DEPICTED SEAS TO 8 FT N OF THE FRONT AND JUST
E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE WAVE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE. SFC HIGH
NW OF FRONT WILL SHIFT NE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REALIGN STRONG PRES
GRADIENT THROUGH STRAITS AND ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC
AS WEAK FRONTAL REMNANTS PERSIST. HIGH TO SLIDE E OFF OF CAROLINAS
SAT AND SUN AND MAINTAIN STRONG GRADIENT FLOW N OF NORTHWARD
DRIFTING BOUNDARY ACROSS NW BAHAMAS...ADJACENT ATLC W OF 70W AND
INTO NE FLORIDA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SE TO S SUN AND MON
AS DEEP LAYERED LOW LIFTS NE THROUGH MS VALLEY AND INTO NE U.S.
AND SFC HIGH SLIDES FARTHER NE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. ASSOCIATED NEW
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS MON NIGHT WITH WINDS INITIALLY
N TO NNE 15-20 KT BEHIND FRONT. SECONDARY FRONT TO MERGE WITH
STALLING FIRST FRONT BY TUE NIGHT TO REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT AND
PUSH FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA AND REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO 31N73W BY WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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