Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 210720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES LOCATED S
OF MOBILE BAY NEAR 29N87W TO 25N93W TO NEAR POZA RICA MEXICO.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT BASED ON BUOYS
OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS TODAY AND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT N. BY LATE MON...SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS
AROUND NOONTIME ON TUE. CURRENTLY...THE GEFS PROBABILITIES OF GALE
FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE GULF WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES REACH 20-30
PERCENT...AND CONFIDENCE THUS IS HIGH ON OCCURRENCE. THE GFS
MODEL SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS ZONES GMZ011 AND
GMZ017 BY TUE EVENING...AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES TUE EVENING THROUGH LATE WED MORNING.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA
LATE WED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN AND SW
WATERS W OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REGION. PEAK SEAS LIKELY 10-13 FT BEHIND FRONT WITH MAX AROUND
15 FT SW PORTIONS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY
INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF
25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 0600-1200
UTC WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S ALONG
87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT W AND INLAND
TODAY REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING THEN WILL DISSIPATE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WED EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED
NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THU MORNING...AND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 9 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE ON TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS
INCREASE SOME S OF 22N WHERE MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER THERE
THROUGH TONIGHT... BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA MON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WED. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO W CUBA THU MORNING...AND FROM
31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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