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000
AGXX40 KNHC 110709
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
209 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1031 mb high over northern Mexico continues to expand E-SE
across the basin in the wake of a strong cold front, now well SE
of the area. Winds and seas have continued the diminishing trend
with moderate to locally fresh winds, except fresh to strong
offshore of Veracruz. Seas of 4-7 ft in residual NW swell
continue to subside across the SE half of the basin with 1-3 ft
seas across the NW half of the basin.

The high will drift E-NE to near the S TX coast through this
coming evening with narrow ridging developing across across the
basin, producing only gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas
across the waters, except 4-5 ft in lingering N swell in the far
SE part. The next cold front will move into the northern waters
by early Tue morning, pushing SE of the basin by early Wed
morning. Winds are now forecast to shift to W-NW and increase to
fresh to strong in the N central and NE Gulf in the wake of the
front, with seas building to 6-8 ft. Marine conditions will then
improve Wed and Wed night with new high pres building across the
area, ushering in light and variable winds and 1-3 ft seas. Yet
another cold front will likely move into the NW and N central
waters Thu night through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A stationary front extends from near the Windward Passage to
across Jamaica to western Panama. Active convection remains near
the boundary S of 16N and W of the front. A recent scatterometer
pass measured northerly gale force winds S of 16N and W of the
front, with moderate to fresh northerly winds elsewhere behind
the boundary. Seas are up to 12-17 ft S of 18N and W of the
front, with 7-11 ft seas N of 18N. Moderate to fresh trades and
4-7 ft seas prevail E of the front.

The front will remain nearly stationary through the early part of
the week, gradually dissipating Tue through Wed, becoming a
remnant trough by Thu. Gale force winds offshore of Nicaragua
will diminish by this coming evening with fresh to strong
northerly flow then remaining S of 18N and W of the front to 84W
through Wed night before finally diminishing by early Thu as the
front becomes a trough. Meanwhile, NE flow downwind of the
Windward Passage will increase to fresh to strong Wed night
through Thu morning before diminishing. Also, trades will
increase to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean Wed night
through the end of the week, reaching 30 kt NW of the coast of
Colombia by Fri night with seas building to 12 ft.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A stalling cold front extends from just E of Bermuda to near the
Windward Passage. A recent scatterometer pass showed lingering
fresh to strong N-NE flow S of 27N within 180 nm NW of the front
where seas are also 7-9 ft. High pres continues to build W of the
front with only moderate winds elsewhere W of the front and
mainly 4-7 ft subsiding seas. E of the front, moderate E-SE flow
and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

The front will completely stall from near 27N65W to near the
Windward Passage by this evening. The lingering fresh to strong
winds and 7-9 ft seas will finally diminish and subside by early
Tue. Meanwhile, the next cold front will be approaching the NW
portion with winds becoming SW and increasing to fresh to strong
offshore of NE Florida Tue morning. The front will sweep across
the waters Tue evening through Thu morning. SW flow ahead of the
front will increase to near gale force Tue night with shifting
W-NW strong to near gale force winds behind the front. These
winds will spread across the entire waters N of 27N with seas
rapidly building to 8-16 ft through Thu, quickly subsiding
thereafter. Yet another strong cold front may move across the
waters Fri into the coming weekend with another round of fresh to
near gale force winds across the waters N of 27N.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W...
     Gale Warning today.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.


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