Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 050703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
303 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR
WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PRIMARILY S OF
26N AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NE
GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GFS FORECAST AND THE NWPS WAVE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR
WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA
ALIGNED ALONG 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THU...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...SHIFTING THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FARTHER N AWAY FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COMPROMISED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA
WEAKENS AS IT MIGRATES W ACROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N
ATLC TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W WILL REACH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC MON...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT AND EXIT
THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS/NWPS FORECASTS LOOK REASONABLE OVER
THE AREA AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS AND
12 EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
ALLOW MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 27N AND GENTLE SE TO S WINDS N
OF 27N TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WELL NE OF THE AREA WILL SEND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER PINCHED OFF NEAR BERMUDA LATE MON WSW TUE THROUGH
THU...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT TRAVELS TO NEAR 30N70W. THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREFERENCE TO
ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE FORECAST AS IT GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH
SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC. BOTH MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WITH THE AREA OF WIND SHRINKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST MON THROUGH THU AS THE RIDGE TO THE N
WEAKENS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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