Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 221857
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/1800 UTC IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
JUST OFFSHORE OR W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19.3N 92.1W OR
ABOUT 96 NM W-SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY
MOVING E AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED WITH INTENSE SHEAR AND DRY
AIR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIVING S-SE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN SO...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED
MAXIMUM SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.

MEANWHILE...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
HAS ENTERED THE FAR NE GULF AND WILL SOON OVERTAKE THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT. RECENT IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN OUTSIDE
OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPRESSION. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT E OF 87W AND
4-7 FT W OF 87W.

THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING TO A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY 00Z THIS EVENING JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...THEN WEAKENING BACK TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FROM
27N82W TO 25N87W TO 25N94W THIS EVENING...THEN FROM 25N81W TO
23.5N87W TO 21N91W BY THU MORNING BEFORE STALLING THROUGH EARLY
FRI. THE FRONT WILL THEN FINALLY PUSH SE OF THE BASIN BY LATE FRI
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT BEHIND
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BASIN-WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
N OF 26N AND 3-5 FT S OF 26N BY SUN...EXCEPT TO 6 FT STILL NEAR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT
AVAILABLE). HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS
E OF 74W AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS W OF
74W...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 19N W OF 80W UNDER
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CURRENTLY IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO JUST
W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAY STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND OVER THE PENINSULA BY EARLY THU...
THEN WILL WEAKEN BACK TO A DEPRESSION AND EMERGE E OF THE YUCATAN
IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY STALL
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
BOTH THE DEPRESSION AND THE COLD FRONT LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT AND THE DEPRESSION...GENTLE
TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE SEAS REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 18N WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN
THU...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND W CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THE WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
TROUGH SUN. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT
AVAILABLE). HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS ALONG 30N79W SW TO
30N81W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS
REMAINS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED MORNING...STALLING WESTWARD TO NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT JUST NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU MORNING. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THU NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN SUCH STATUS WHEN IT MOVES TO NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS/S OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY/RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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