Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 211808
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
208 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh SE winds over Gulf waters will become light SE
to S to the east of a prefrontal trough that will progress
eastward across the Gulf on Sun just ahead of a cold front
arriving on the Texas coast Sun evening. Winds on the west side
of the prefrontal trough will be light to moderate from the
north. The front is expected to move off the Texas coast Sun
evening and reach from near Apalachicola Florida to the NW corner
of the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday afternoon, then from Sarasota
Florida to NW Cuba by Tuesday afternoon. Strong high pressure
will build southeastward across the area in the wake of the front
could produce gale force winds over the SW Gulf near Veracruz on
Mon and Mon night. Have gone slightly above the GFS solution
which calls for winds barely to gale threshold around 18Z on Mon,
as a tropical wave approaching from the western Caribbean should
increase the pressure gradient in the neighborhood of the front
as it follows the Sierra Madre Oriental southward through the SW
Gulf. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf should subside by Thu
morning as surface high pres builds over the NW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

The tropical wave currently passing south of Cuba appears to be
the more vigorous of the 2 tropical waves currently over the
Caribbean. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
associated with this wave covers the western Caribbean S of Cuba
between 10N and 20N. The tropical wave currently passing from the
far W Caribbean into the Yucatan Peninsula has limited
convection associated with it in the vicinity of Belize.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany
the stronger wave is it moves west. Fresh to locally strong
trades following in the wake of the stronger wave will cover the
central Caribbean until around midday on Monday, when an
approaching cold front weakens the high to the north of the
Caribbean. The same cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on
Wednesday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Strong high pres building over the W Atlc will maintain fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds, especially S of 22N through
Monday. A cold front is forecast to move off the SE Coast after
sunset on Tuesday night. Strong S winds and seas building to 8 ft
can be expected N of 30N on Mon night and Tue morning. The cold
front will move E from Florida on Wednesday and produce fresh to
locally strong NW winds over the waters W of 77W. The front could
be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms capable of producing
strong gusty winds and rough seas. The front will weaken as it
heads SE Thu and Thu night. High pressure will slide ENE from The
Gulf of mexico on Fri morning to near 30N76W on Fri morning and
support light to moderate winds over the region.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Tue.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.


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