Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 281844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE NE THROUGHOUT EXCEPT IN THE NE AND SE GULF PORTIONS
WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING LOW PRES MOVEING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL NEAR
THE LOWER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASE SOME THIS
MORNING AROUND THE LOW PRIMARILY IN THE E AND SE QUADRANTS. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SE GULF ON MON...AND CONTINUE INTO
THE SE GULF THROUGH TUE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER. THE GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN
THE EASTERN GULF THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE SE U.S. OR NORTHERN FL.
THE FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW CERTAINTY
OF THE INTENSITY WINDS WERE CAPPED AT 25-30 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE STRAITS OF FL TO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND THEN SPREAD TO THE N CENTRAL
AND NE GULF WATERS WED THROUGH MOST OF FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HURRICANE WARNING GASTON NE OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC
IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
MAINLY MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AS GASTON MOVES N
AND RECURVES...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 24N. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADES OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON-WED. BY EARLY TUE... FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PERSISTING
LATE INTO THE WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MON-FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORMED AT 15 UTC NEAR 31.5N 70.0W WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM BY MON EVENING WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED FROM IT IN THE TAFB FORECAST AREA. LOW PRES IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR THE FL KEYS WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MON WHERE IT HAS A POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND WRN CUBA
THROUGH RN TERN MON. LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WARNING
GASTON WILL PERSIST IN NORTHEASTERN WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG SE-S WINDS WILL IMPACT THE THE NW WATERS THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH RESPECT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXPECTED
TO TRACK NE TO ACROSS NRN FL AND POSSIBLY TO OFF NE FL COAST ON
FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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