Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 270700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS
FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W AS
CAPTURED BY A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW
DOMINATES THE BASIN BASED ON SCATTEROMETER PASSES EXCEPT NEAR THE
HIGH ITSELF...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN
THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST.
SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...2-4 FT IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 90W...AND 4-7 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SAT NIGHT MAINTAINING THE PRIMARILY MODERATE TO
FRESH RETURN FLOW. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE DISRUPTED BY
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW N ATLC
AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NW. NEW HIGH PRES WILL
FORM IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA SUN
AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT NW OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHERE DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING
SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THIS AREA
AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS
FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL WAVES ARE CONCERNED...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N. THIS
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 49W WILL APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND NORTHERN S AMERICA SUN THROUGH MON...THEN INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE.

A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TROUGHING LOCATED IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO DISRUPT CENTRAL
ATLC RIDGING. LOW PRES TYPICALLY FOUND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL
ALSO BE WEAKER THAN NORMAL FURTHER HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK PATTERN.
AS A RESULT...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 4-7 FT IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE...AND 1-3 FT IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WEAKEST WINDS WILL BE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS
FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED LATEST TAFB-NWPS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NNE-SSW THROUGH THE LOW. RECENT WINDSAT...ASCAT AND
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALL WENT OVER THE LOW AND INDICATED
THAT IT WAS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE S THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT ON THE N-NE SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANTICIPATED ON THIS
SIDE OF LOW DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE N AND NE. MODEL GUIDANCE MAYBE
SLIGHTLY UNDER FORECASTING WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND A GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
LATER THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
INITIALIZE THE BEST...AND A TINY AREA OF 34 KT WINDS IS DEPICTED
FOR 1-2 HOURS. THIS LOW ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

A BUOY LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER ALSO HAS BEEN
REPORTING SEAS UP TO 11 FT WHICH IS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN ANY
AVAILABLE WAVE GUIDANCE. WAVE GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP ACCORDINGLY FOR
THE SHORT TERM WITH THE TAFB-NWPS 03Z RUN USED THEREAFTER. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W-NW AND THEN NW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL SHIFT N OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WATERS E OF 70W MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG IT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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