Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
AGXX40 KNHC 221941
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
241 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Gale force winds follow a powerful cold front currently reaching
from Pensacola Florida to Veracruz Mexico. The front will sweep
east of the Gulf through tonight, with gale force winds and seas
as high as 19 ft spreading over much of the region north of 22N.
Winds will eventually diminish to below gale force over the
eastern Gulf early Monday morning. Conditions will greatly
improve Monday and Monday night from west to east as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high will move from
northern Mexico this evening to the Bay of Campeche Monday
evening, to near the Straits of Florida Tuesday evening before
exiting east of the area by mid-week as the next cold front
approaches the basin from the northwest.

The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Wednesday
morning, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the southwest
Gulf by Thursday morning, pushing southeast of the basin by
Friday morning. A surge of fresh to strong southerly winds is
likely ahead of the front west of 94W Tuesday and Tuesday night,
with fresh to strong northwest flow possible behind the front
across the western and central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong southerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted in a band
from near Swan Island to the Yucatan Channel in the northwest
Caribbean. These winds and seas are active ahead of a strong cold
front in the Gulf of Mexico approaching the region. The front
will move through the Yucatan Channel tonight, and continue
eastward eventually reaching from central Cuba to eastern
Honduras midday Monday. A few thunderstorms and strong winds
will accompany the front over the area north of 20N, within 150
nm either side of the front. Seas will reach 12 ft in the Yucatan
Channel due in part to northwest swell. Winds and seas will
diminish through Monday night as the front reaches a position
from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua, with the
southern portion of the front weakening. A much weaker fragment
of the front will pass the Mona Passage Tuesday night, then east
of the Leewards through mid week leaving mainly gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the basin.

The next cold front will approach the northwest Caribbean by the
end of the week.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft to continue through the
forecast period. The only change will be the decaying southerly
portion of the cold front which will move by north of 15N
Thursday causing winds to briefly shift near the boundary.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Ridging along 23N/24N is weakening and shifting east ahead of a
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The front will
enter the Atlantic waters off northeast Florida tonight.
Southerly winds ahead of the front will reach gale force north of
26N tonight and tomorrow, with strong northwest winds following
the front. Seas will reach as high as 18 ft just ahead of the
front north of 28N tonight and early Monday, with 12 to 16 ft
over a broad area north of the Bahamas and east of northeast
Florida following the front Monday. Winds and seas will be
gradually diminishing by late Tuesday as the front reaches from
Bermuda to Dominican Republic. A broad area of 8 to 13 ft seas
and strong northwest winds covering the area east of Bahamas will
subside from west to east through Wednesday night as high
pressure builds behind eastward the front.

The next cold front will move off the southeast coast of the
United States early Thursday, moving across the waters off
northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas through the end of
the week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     Gale Warning today into Mon.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning today.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Mon.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Mon night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning Mon night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     Gale Warning tonight into Mon.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     Gale Warning Mon into Mon night.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning Mon night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. National Hurricane
Center.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.