Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 310759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS...THEN MOVE INTO THE SW GULF
WATERS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH GENERALLY WILL BE
MODERATE TO FRESH. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST WIND-SPEED EVENT
IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 6 OR 7 FT.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
WED NIGHT. S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW
PRIMARILY IN THE W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE FL STRAITS EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY
EVENINGS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. WAVE
HEIGHTS THAT RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET ARE BEING INDICATED BY
ALTIMETER DATA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE WILL REACH PUERTO RICO IN 24 HOURS...
NEAR JAMAICA IN 48 HOURS...AND NEAR NW CUBA IN 72 HOURS. STRONG
NE-E WINDS WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 15N E OF
THE LEEWARDS AND THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING TODAY...AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF
PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. COMBINED
SEAS WITH THE TRADES WILL PEAK TO 10 FT ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON
WED AS LARGE FETCH BEHIND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR
SEAS TO BUILD BACK TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS
SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS LATEST MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 28N78W.
THE GRADIENT S OF THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE MOVE W ACROSS THE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS BEGINNING
TODAY ON SUNDAY S OF 21N E OF 58W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT
W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W BY SUN
EVENING...AND TO S OF 24N W OF 70W BY MON EVENING. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH SEAS SUBSIDING.

FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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