Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 261934
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

NEW COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF TODAY...NOW
CLEARLY EXTENDING FROM FL KEYS ARCHING W-SW TO NEAR 23.5N96W.
MORNING SHIP AND RIG OBS SUGGESTED WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS
IN LOW 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT...WHILE
LARGE AREA OF SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
FROM NE PORTIONS WWD TO 42001...WHICH BRIEFLY ROSE TO 12 FT AT
14Z...WHILE 42003 AND 42099 NOW AT 12 FT. NWPS OUTPUT CLOSEST OF
WAVE MODELS TO THIS SOLUTION BUT STILL DID NOT CAPTURE W EXTEND OF
THESE 12 FT SEAS...WHILE WW3 WAS 1-4 FT LOW. FRONT TO CONTINUE
QUICKLY SE ACROSS FL STRAITS AND REMAINDER OF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH SFC HIGH FORECAST TO SHIFT SE AND INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF GULF ALONG 95-96W FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE
RESIDUAL NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE HIGH IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WILL LINGER IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. ANOTHER DRY AND BENIGN COLD
FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE N AND CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF BY WED AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE E OF 86W...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-7 FT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE
WED WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BY WED NIGHT ALONG WITH 1-3
FT SEAS...EXCEPT UP TO 4-5 FT IN THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT REACHING FROM
APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY 12Z FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE MOVING S ACROSS
FL AND E PORTIONS THROUGH SAT. ONLY MODERATE NELY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT UNLIKE THE PRECEDING FRONTAL PASSAGES.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS NW PORTIONS BUT
HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY SE IN PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS CUBA AND N
PORTIONS WHILE SE PORTION OF BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NE HONDURAS. NLY
FLOW BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SPILLING INTO HONDURAS AND W PORTIONS WHERE
SEAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 FT IN GULF OF HONDURAS. MORNING SCAT PASSES
SHOWED STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA 25-30 KT EXTENDING N TO 13N
WHERE SEAS WERE ASSUMED TO HAVE PEAKED THIS MORNING AT 10 FT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN PULSE TO 25 KT NEAR
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH WED...THEN WILL INCREASE
BACK TO 20-30 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS YET AGAIN. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED
ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN.

GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO WEATHER. HOWEVER...HIGH PRES MOVING INTO W GULF
WILL INDUCE A VERY SHARP PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS HONDURAS...WHICH WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO THE SW CARIB BY TUE...WHERE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN 90-120 NM OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA THROUGH THU
MORNING...BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

OLD FRONT STALLED THIS MORNING BUT HAS SINCE BEGUN TO DRIFT NW
AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS E OF 75W...WHILE W OF
75W...NEW FRONT NUDGING OLD FRONT SE ATTM. NEW FRONT HAS SHIFTED
OFFSHORE OF FL THIS MORNING AND MOVING QUICKLY E-SE. MID MORNING
PARTIAL SCAT PASSES DEPICTED GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS FAR S AS
26.5N AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND GALE WARNING WAS
INITIATED AT 15Z...IN LINE WITH FL COASTAL WFO`S. GOOD CALL JAX
AND MLB! FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR BUOY 41002 TO 28N76W TO JUST
OFFSHORE OF FL KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS...WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WLY FLOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF FL BEHIND FRONT. BUOY
41010 NOW UP TO 11 FT...AS IS 41002. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE E-SE
THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE SLOWING...AND GRADUALLY MOVE TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY 72 HRS. NEW FRONT TO
REACH FROM 31N70W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN NW CUBA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...30N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY 12Z TUE MORNING...THEN VERY
NEAR PREVIOUS BOUNDARY FROM 30N61.5W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY WED
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL BRIEFLY...THEN PUSH SE THU AND FRI
WITH W PORTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE ALONG 21.5N
EXTENDING INTO CUBA. GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT
BY THIS EVENING WHILE GALES INCREASE TO 40 KT AHEAD OF FRONT. A
DRY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION TUE
MORNING...TO SUSTAIN WLY GALES BETWEEN FRONTS...WHILE GALES
CONTINUE ACROSS NE PORTIONS E OF FIRST FRONT. GALES ON BOTH SIDES
OF BOUNDARIES LIFT N OF AREA BY 00Z WED. HIGH SEAS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS N PORTIONS NEXT 24-36 HRS...BUILDING TO UP TO 18 FT
TONIGHT...AND UP TO 20 FT BY SUNRISE TUE. FRONT TO MERGE AS THEY
EXIT TO THE E OF 65W BY THU MORNING.

THESE ACTIVE CONDITIONS FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
THU MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HILTON HEAD SOUTH CAROLINA TO 23N65W BY
12 UTC THU. THIS HIGH WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SE TO NEAR 28N75W BY
FRI MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE NW PORTION AS
IT REACHES FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA FRI EVENING...
THEN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 28N THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REMAINING N OF 30.5N.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...STORMY E COAST PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH
TWO MORE DEEP LOWS FORECAST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND
NEXT WORK WEEK. THESE LOWS ARE SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM E COAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
REAL ESTATE AND NW FETCH BEHIND THEIR FRONTS...AND LIKELY TO
PROVIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND LONGER LASTING NW SWELL EVENTS ACROSS
THE AREA ATLANTIC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TUE.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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