Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 291815
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
215 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations indicate fresh
to strong southeast flow across much of the Gulf waters and in the
Straits of Florida. A few buoys over the NW Gulf are reporting
minimal gale force winds at times. These winds are currently
building seas to near 10 ft. Seas will build to 12-13 ft over
much of the northwest and north central Gulf through tonight
given the long duration of strong southeast winds. These winds
are the result of a tight pressure gradient between a ridge
across the western Atlantic and Florida into the eastern Gulf and
a low pressure developing over Texas. The low pressure will move
into the central Plains through tonight, with a trailing cold
front moving off the Texas coast early Sunday. Strong to near
gale force winds will follow the front along the coast of Mexico
through Sunday, likely reaching minimal gale force for brief
periods off Tamaulipas and Veracruz on Sunday with seas to 10 ft.
The 12Z run of the GFS model suggests that minimal gale conditions
will occur across forecast zone GMZ017 early Sunday morning, and
across forecast zone GMZ023 early Sunday afternoon. The low
pressure will lift farther north of the area through Sunday,
allowing winds and seas to diminish through early Monday. The
front will stall from the western Panhandle to the southwest Gulf
early Monday and lift north through early Tuesday. High pressure
will build across the northern Gulf allowing moderate to fresh
southerly return flow to set up across the Gulf into mid week.
Looking ahead, another cold front may enter the NW Gulf late
Wednesday night also followed by gale force winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A ridge located north of the area will continue to support
overnight pulses of fresh to strong E-SE winds near the Gulf of
Honduras, and easterly trade winds off Colombia and northwest
Venezuela and a smaller area south of Cabo Beata in southern
Dominican Republic through Sunday night. Fesh trade winds and
seas 6 to 8 ft are expected over the central Caribbean through
late Sunday as high pressure builds north of the area. Similarly,
fresh northeast winds are likely into the Windward Passage by
late Sunday. Winds and seas diminish from Monday through the
middle of next week as the high pressure weakens and shifts east.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A 1031 mb high pressure situated near 35N42W extends a ridge
across the SW N Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
This ridge is supporting fresh to strong southeast flow across
the south waters, particularly from the north coast of Hispaniola
through the southern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. The
pattern will persist through late Sunday, with fresh to strong
winds likely near the approaches to the Windward Passage.
Generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will persist
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Southeast to south return flow
will increase off the coast of northeast Florida through late
Monday as a weakening cold front approaches the area from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall along the Florida
coast by early Tuesday then become diffuse. Winds and seas
diminish late Tuesday through Wednesday as weak high pressure
builds west along roughly 28N.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning Sun.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning Sun into Sun night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.



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