Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 040737
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. A RIDGE IS NOW
BUILDING W ACROSS THE GULF REGION ALONG 26N. A HIGH PRES CENTER
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND
SHIFT N THROUGH THU BEFORE MERGING AGAIN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ON
FRI. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
WINDS UP TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS
WILL AGAIN PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N. SEAS OF 12-14 FT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED MORNING. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAS ALREADY EXPANDED EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALSO IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED
THROUGH FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH BUILDS N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 78W/79W IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND EXIT THE AREA THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED NIGHT...REACHING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT AND
SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NW WATERS BETWEEN THE ATLC
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO PALM BEACH AND A SURFACE LOW THAT
HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO W WATERS
WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE WED AND WILL
PERSIST ON THU BEFORE MERGING BACK INTO THE WEAKENED RIDGE AXIS
BY FRI. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BUILD OVER E WATERS WED THROUGH
FRI AS THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY S OF 22N BETWEEN
69W AND 72W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE THE
WEAKENED RIDGE DIMINISHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO WED.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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