Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
000
AGXX40 KNHC 160804
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
404 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature continues to be the western extension of
the Atlantic sub-tropical ridge that reaches across the central
Gulf, with a 1017 mb center at 27N84W. The associated
anticyclonic flow consists of light to gentle winds in the basin
as confirmed by current buoy observations and by an Ascat pass
from 0246Z last night.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds being observed over the far
western Gulf will diminish this afternoon, then briefly
materialize tonight before diminishing again on Thursday. Seas
to 6 ft associated with these winds will lower to around 4 ft
on Thursday. The ridge will lift northward to the northern Gulf
on Friday, and remain nearly stationary through the weekend.
Moderate NE to E winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche will
pulse to fresh to strong at night through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 81W at 06Z, moving westward at
20-25 kt. The wave will move across the remainder of the western
Caribbean through Thursday. A broad tropical wave approaching
the Lesser Antilles at 06Z is moving westward near 25 kt. This
wave will move quickly through the Tropical N Atlantic waters
early this morning, then pass across the eastern Caribbean later
this morning and through Thursday afternoon, across the central
Caribbean Thursday beginning late Thursday afternoon through
Friday afternoon, and the western Caribbean Friday night through
Saturday evening. The next tropical wave or low pressure system
will move across the eastern Tropical N Atlantic waters Thursday
afternoon, and the rest of the Tropical N Atlantic through Friday
morning, then across the eastern Caribbean Friday afternoon
through Saturday night and the central Caribbean Sunday and
Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds, locally gusty at times,
will accompany this system along with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the far SW Caribbean will
continue to pulse from time to time through the forecast period.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Now with Hurricane Gert well to the north of the forecast waters,
winds and seas over the NE portion of zone AMZ 113W will continue
to subside through today. A trailing band of mostly low to middle
level clouds is noted over much of the waters between 70W-76W
and N of 26N. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are present over the northern portion of zone AMZ 113 to the
east of 75W. This activity should linger through the afternoon
and possibly the evening.

In the wake of Gert, the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge will become
established along along 27N through tonight. It will then shift
N to near 28N Thursday through Friday, and shift N to 29N on
Saturday and to along 31N on Sunday. The northern portion of a
broad tropical wave is passing across the far SE portion of the
area. Associated scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
cover most of that zone. The wave will quickly move into the
eastern Caribbean later this morning, but the pressure gradient
between it and the Atlantic ridge will increase the winds and
wave heights over the far southern waters tonight through at
least early Friday afternoon, with easterly winds reaching the
fresh to locally strong range and seas expected to build to
around 6 or 7 ft.

Guidance indicates that easterly winds begin to increase again
beginning Saturday evening over these same waters as another
broad large tropical wave or tropical low pressure system moves
through the Tropical N Atlantic waters. Expect similar winds and
seas with this wave or low pressure system, but may be
significantly larger if it is a stronger system. Stay tuned to
future updated text forecasts as well as updated NDFD forecast
data.

E winds will pulse to fresh, maybe with brief instances to
strong, between the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola in the afternoons
and at night through the forecast period.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.