Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 031043
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
643 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 03/06
UTC: THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT
LIFTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY/EARLY ON THURSDAY
MORNING. DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY...WITH A MORE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN
TO ESTABLISH ON WEDNESDAY. TREND IS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. AT LOW LEVELS EXPECTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO VEER TO THE SOUTH LATER IN
THE WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS ENHANCED BY THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MOST INTENSE TO CLUSTER ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF/NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. IN THIS AREA HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES
TODAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS THEN PROJECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE POLAR TROUGH IS TO SIMULTANEOUSLY DEEPEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/CUBA TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS
BOUNDARY TO THEN STALL AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN HISPANIOLA DURING
THE WEEKEND...WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AS
MOISTURE/CONVECTION BUILDS TO THE WEST...THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT
THE SPREAD/INTENSITY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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