Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 021550
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1149 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 05 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 09 2015

TODAYS WPC MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 3-7 SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500
MB PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF
QUITE COMPATABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC
NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OVERALL FLOW OFFERS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PATTERN  PREDICTABILITY...BUT DECIDED TO EXCLUDE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL INPUT INTO THE SOLUTION AGAIN TODAY AFTER
CONSIDERATION OF RUN TO RUN SYSTEM VARIANCE.

A MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
VORTS OVER MID-LATITUDES FROM THE CENTRAL TO ERN US THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTES A LINGERING WAVY FRONT CENTERED
AROUND 35-40N. THIS MAY FOCUS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR REPEAT HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. EXPECT GENERALLY LESS ORGANIZED
WARM SECTOR SRN US CONVECTION UNDERNEATH...BUT WITH SOME FOCUS
OVER THE SERN US. MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD ALSO FUEL SOME DEFINED
PERIODS OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION SPREAD AROUND A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS
THE SW US AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THIS PATTERN.

MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS GRADUALLY
ESEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND TO S-CENTRAL
CANADA/N-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ENERGY
EJECTION/REINFORCEMENT DAYS 6/7. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAIN WELL
INTO CANADA...BUT TRANSLATION SHOULD DRIVE A COOLING AND
CONVECTION FOCUSING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM UNDERNEATH THOUGH
THE N-CENTRAL US THROUGH ERN US WHILE ACTING TO PULL MOISTURE AND
ADDITIONAL AMPLE CONVECTIVE AND LEADING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL FOCUS
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH  PAST NEXT MIDWEEK. OUT WEST...GUIDANCE
REMAINS SOMEHWAT MIXED BUT SUSPECT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR THAT AN ERN
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW MAY PROVE QUITE SLOW TO APPROACH CA NEXT WEEK
BUT SUSPECT CLOSER PROXIMITY MAY ALLOW SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN
ABOUT A WEEK IN THE VICINITY OF NRN CA TERRAIN.

SCHICHTEL









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