Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 281828
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID MAY 28/1200 UTC THRU JUN 01/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR
SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

A 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE HAS THE BEST SUPPORT FROM THE MODEL
ENSEMBLES...SO IT CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL PREFERENCE AT THIS
POINT.  CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONSIDERING THE
WELL-CLUSTERED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE 00Z ENSEMBLE LOW
PLOT.


CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THERE IS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO EXPECT A CLOSED CENTER AT 500 HPA.
THIS SUPPORTS THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF, A COMPROMISE OF
WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO PREFER A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


T.D. TWO APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST
MATCH TO THE 15Z NHC TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS FORECAST AS THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A SLOWER RECURVATURE WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO BE SPEEDING UP.  REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND
FORECAST REASONING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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