Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 261931
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 26 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2017

TODAY`S MODELS DEPICT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MOST SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PREDICT TROUGHS
OVER THE BERING SEA, THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA/U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS
GENERALLY FAVORED OVER ALASKA, THE GREAT PLAINS, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
AS USUAL, THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN BOTH THE PREDICTED AMPLITUDES AND PHASES OF
THESE LONG-WAVE FEATURES FROM THE GENERAL CONSENSUS PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC
6Z GFS RUN DIFFERS FROM THE OTHER RUNS IN THAT IT FORECASTS A TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TODAY`S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND FAVORS TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAS SHOWN HIGHER RECENT SKILL THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURE TOOLS (FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, CALIBRATED REFORECAST
GEFS AND ECMWF, AND THE MANUAL AND AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURES) GENERALLY FAVOR AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PANHANDLE, PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THESE FORECAST AREAS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF PREDICTED NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS THE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, ARE
ATTRIBUTED TO WEAK 500-HPA TROUGHS AND HEIGHT ANOMALIES CLOSE TO ZERO. FOR ALL
REMAINING AREAS OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED,
ASSOCIATED WITH 500-HPA RIDGING AND MODESTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
(INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND PANHANDLE), CENTRAL SECTIONS OF BOTH THE PLAINS
AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
AREAS OF PREDICTED WETTER-THAN-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO
500-HPA TROUGHS AND RELATED STORM TRACKS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS (INCLUDING PARTS OF ADJACENT
LOUISIANA), ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THESE AREAS OF PREDICTED DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
500-HPA RIDGES AND WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2017

THE PREDICTED WEEK-2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE OF SOMEWHAT GREATER AMPLITUDE THAN ITS 6-10 DAY COUNTERPART,
ALONG WITH A REASONABLY AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST. TWO EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION, WHICH
DEPICTS A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE EASTWARD; AND THE 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS RUN, WHICH CONTINUES TO PERSIST A
NARROW TROUGH ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS IT DID DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

THE ANTICIPATED WEEK-2 SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A GREATER COVERAGE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS ALONG WITH INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR MANY AREAS, AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE ARE
PREDICTED TO MODERATE FROM BELOW-NORMAL (6-10 DAYS) TO NEAR-NORMAL (WEEK-2).
PERHAPS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS
THE INCLUSION OF A CORRIDOR OF NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
COINCIDE WITH MOISTURE RELATED TO THE ONSET PHASE OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON.
THIS CORRIDOR INCLUDES EASTERN ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS, AND
THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW-AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO WEAK MEAN 500-HPA ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
DOMAIN AND SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE SURFACE SPECIFICATION TOOLS.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY A

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890606 - 20030608 - 19720703 - 20000627 - 19510701


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030608 - 19890605 - 19720703 - 20020613 - 19600620


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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