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FXUS06 KWBC 261940
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 26 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 05 2016

MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD IS GOOD, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGIONS. SOLUTIONS FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTER ARE LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THOSE FROM THE GEFS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOLUTIONS FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTER AND THE GEFS INDICATE
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ENVIRONMENT CANADA DEPICT NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

IN THE MANUAL BLEND, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA,
NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHWEST. ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY WEAK, LESS
THAN 30 METERS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, UNDER BROAD
RIDGING AND WEAK ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE THE FORECAST PATTERN INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND
A SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN LOW-LEVEL MEAN FLOW. OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LINKED TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION. ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.

PREDICTED BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS FAVOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, WHILE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THAT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. ENHANCED RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. THE ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FAVOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE SOME ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FAVORS
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
7, 25% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL
12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 09 2016

THE FORECAST PATTERNS FROM THE AVAILABLE MODELS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE ANOMALIES ARE OF MINIMAL AMPLITUDE.  THE LOW
AMPLITUDE ANOMALIES LEAD TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY FOR A PERIOD WHEN THE MODELS
EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS BASED SOLUTIONS DEPICT SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500-HPA
HEIGHTS OVERALL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. EUROPEAN CENTER MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN CANADIAN THAN ANY OF THE OTHER
MODELING SYSTEMS.

RECENTLY, THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELING SYSTEMS HAVE SCORED SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN THE GFS, SO THOSE MODELS ARE GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEIGHTS IN THE
500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE AVERAGE
HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES, AND WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE FORECAST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
EAST COAST DUE TO THE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT.  PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY, DUE TO THE INDICATIONS OF A FRONT SETTLING ACROSS THAT REGION
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROUGHING IN THAT REGION. THE ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING. THE BROAD RIDGING FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPICTIONS OF THE MEAN FRONT IN THE GFS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN
IN THE EUROPEAN CENTER SOLUTIONS, SO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
EAST COAST IS HIGH. THE ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FAVOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE SOME ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FAVORS
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960808 - 20050719 - 19550802 - 20010801 - 19810731


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960808 - 20050717 - 19810802 - 19590803 - 19550802


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 01 - 05 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 09 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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