Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 042000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 00Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 00Z FRI AUG 07 2015

...SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MUCH OF THE NATION`S ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT, THE PORTION EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WARM AND MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, HELPING TO REINFORCE A NEW,
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE WPC AND
SPC, RESPECTIVELY, THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUT WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE BELOW
TYPICAL MONSOONAL AVERAGES, SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FARTHER TO THE EAST HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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