Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 301955
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 31 2017 - 00Z SUN APR 02 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST...

...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN
AND WASATCHS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
TODAY -- WITH A FEW ORGANIZED LINES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINAS. THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS PRODUCING THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND REACHING
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY -- WITH A BROADER AREA OF SLIGHT RISK SPANNING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THESE OUTLINED AREAS WILL
BE LOCATED NEAREST TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WILL
EXPERIENCE THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL; WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING. REFER TO SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AND WPC`S
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WHILE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND ICE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WINTER STORM
WATCHES, WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OUT WEST, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERSIST DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. A STREAM OF MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INLAND
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A SURFACE FRONT CROSSES
THE ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME,  SNOW, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA/CENTRAL IDAHO, WEST-CENTRAL WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND MOST OF UTAH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH ONE SECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AND ANOTHER INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

CAMPBELL/WIX


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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