Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 272024
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 27 2015

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY NEAR NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
THIS WEEKEND. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.

HAZARDS

HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, FRI, JAN 30.

HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST, FRI-SAT, JAN 30-31.

HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, FRI-SAT, JAN
30-31.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND PARTS OF
WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS, FRI-SAT, JAN 30-31.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, SAT AND TUE, JAN 31 AND
FEB 3.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND MIDWEST, SUN-TUE, FEB 1-3.

HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE,
SAT-MON, JAN 31-FEB 2.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC, WED, FEB 4.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S., WED-FRI, FEB 4-6.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY JANUARY 30 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 03: ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW NEAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOW, 6 INCHES OR MORE, IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH THIS SURFACE LOW BUT MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS BOSTON.
SINCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR BOSTON, A HEAVY SNOW HAZARD IS
NOT POSTED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS, HIGH
WINDS (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
OF 12 DEGREES F OR MORE) ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.



A 1036-HPA SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA AND BRING
MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF 12 DEGREES F OR MORE) TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SUBZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY MORNING. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND.



A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
HEAVY SNOW, 6 INCHES OR MORE, IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE
7,000 FEET) OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN COLORADO, AND NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HAZARDS CRITERIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR JANUARY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
(MORE THAN 1 INCH) FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA EAST TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN (LOCALLY MORE THAN 2 INCHES) IS ALSO
FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.



SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND AFFECT THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST ARE AT RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT
UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS PRECLUDES DESIGNATION OF A HEAVY
SNOW HAZARD AT THIS TIME.



EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WET
ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING. RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDS CRITERIA FOR THIS REGION.



ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY FROM EASTERN ALASKA. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 04 - TUESDAY FEBRUARY 10: THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH (RIDGE) OVER EASTERN
(WESTERN) NORTH AMERICA. GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATES MORE THAN A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 15TH PERCENTILE ON FEBRUARY 4
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, A
MODERATE RISK OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR THIS REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE LOWER 48
EARLY IN WEEK-2. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
ANOMALOUS COLD EXTENDS, A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
POSTED FOR A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FROM FEBRUARY 4-6.



AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CALIFORNIA DURING WEEK-2.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED ON JANUARY 22, 2015 INDICATES A
VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2
TO D4) FROM 16.65 TO 16.97 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

$$



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