Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 112111
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 11 2016

SYNOPSIS: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE NORTHEAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES,
EXITING THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE U.S. MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA DURING
THE 3 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE BERING SEA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD

HAZARDS

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST, SUN, FEB 14.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS,
SUN, FEB 14.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, SUN-MON, FEB 14-15.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SUN, FEB 14.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA, MON-TUE, FEB 15-FEB 16.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND THE
SOUTHEAST, SUN-MON, FEB 14-FEB 15.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE OHIO VALLEY,
MON-TUE, FEB 15-16.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE
NORTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, TUE, FEB 16.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, TUE, FEB 16.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST, WED,
FEB 17.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE SIERRAS AND CASCADES IN CALIFORNIA, WED-THU, FEB
17-18.

FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-MON, FEB 14-FEB 15.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUN-MON, FEB 14-FEB 15.

FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC, SUN-MON,
FEB 14-FEB 15.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PUERTO RICO, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND
THE SOUTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 18: THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN
THESE AREAS MAY REACH 30 KNOTS OR GREATER. A BROAD AREA OF COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. DAILY MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MAY REACH 24 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL, WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHEAST.



STRONG WESTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOCALIZED
AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN IDAHO ON SUNDAY. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OR
GREATER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BRINGING
HIGH WINDS TO PARTS OF MONTANA EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 40 KNOTS OR GREATER.



SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY,
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY. MANY MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM TO TRAVEL
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT A NUMBER OF HAZARDS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS
REGARDING THE PATH OF THIS STORM, WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE SPECIFIC TIMES THESE
HAZARDS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF LOWER
MISSISIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH RAIN AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION AND COLD CONDITIONS LEADS TO A STRONG POSSIBILITY
FOR THE THREAT FOR ICING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.



AS THIS STORM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST, PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND OHIO VALLEY MAY RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE
IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE SNOW. AS THIS
STORM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST, PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE
MID-ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST, AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY RECEIVE A MIX OF
RAIN AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY SNOW MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR GREATER OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IN 24-HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THIS STORM MAY SUPPORT HIGH WINDS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST (SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER).



A SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TO
NEXT THURSDAY, BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE SIERRAS AND CASCADES IN
CALIFORNIA. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR GREATER OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN A
24-HOUR PERIOD.



DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT
THE DAYS 3-7 DAY PERIOD, POTENTIALLY ENHANCING WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LOW
PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDES THE DESIGNATION OF A SPECIFIC WILDFIRE RISK AREA AT
THIS TIME.



HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS TRIGGERED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ALONG THE FOLLOWING RIVERS: ALTAMAHA AND SAVANNAH RIVERS IN GEORGIA, CAPE FEAR
RIVER IN NORTH CAROLINA, EDISTO RIVER IN SOUTH CAROLINA, CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND PEARL RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI.

FOR FRIDAY FEBRUARY 19 - THURSDAY FEBRUARY 25: THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO HAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND WESTERN
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, AND RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY FOR WEEK-2.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON FEBRUARY 9, THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL (D2-D4) DROUGHT ACROSS THE 50 U.S. STATES AND PUERTO RICO
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 7.06 PERCENT TO 6.57 PERCENT. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND PUERTO RICO.

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$



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