Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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FXUS02 KWNH 010546
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z TUE SEP 08 2015


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
LONGWAVES, WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA MOSTLY FOLLOWING THE FLOW
LINES--I.E., NON-DEVELOPMENTAL. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NATURALLY
SUITED TO SUCH A REGIME, WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY GIVEN WIGGLE MOST
ACCURATELY EXPRESSED AS A PROBABILISTIC "SMUDGE." THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH
A SECONDARY FOCUS OF RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON SHOULD RETAIN ITS DEFLECTION TO
THE EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS.


CISCO

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