Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 250824
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...VALID 12Z SUN JUN 25 2017 - 12Z MON JUN 26 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
100 SE HXD 50 ESE SSI 20 ESE NRB DAB 10 ESE MCO 30 SSE BOW
45 E APF 40 SE APF 20 W APF 15 SSE MCF 20 NNW GNV 20 ESE VLD
25 ENE AAF BVE 25 S P92 20 WNW KVBS LBX 25 NW KBBF 10 SW KOPM
35 N HRL 15 E BKS 50 E COT 10 WNW COT 40 SE MMPG MMPG 30 N UVA
10 S GRK 15 NNE UTS 20 ENE CWF 25 W BTR 15 SE HSA 10 NE BFM
10 SW OZR 10 SSE DBN 20 NE OGB 45 ENE HSE.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW TAD 15 SE TAD 20 SW SPD 25 SW PYX 50 NNE CDS 50 S CDS
25 NNW SNK 40 SSW LBB 25 SSW HOB 30 E ATS 20 S ATS 20 SSW CNM
55 SSW GDP 25 SSW MMCS 50 SSW DMN 45 SW SVC 10 WNW SVC 50 NW SVC
70 NNW SVC 65 NNW TCS 45 SSW AEG 30 NW SAF 20 SSE SKX 40 NNE SKX
35 NNW VTP 30 SW FCS 20 W AFF COS 30 NW TAD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
LBB 40 W LBB 25 N HOB 45 E ROW 10 NE ROW 15 N ROW 35 WSW ROW
30 W GDP 45 ESE MMCS 25 WNW MMCS 10 ENE DMN 30 N LRU 45 WNW SRR
40 SSW 4MY 15 SW 4MY 10 SW CQC 15 SSW LVS 30 E LVS 40 WSW CAO
30 N DHT 20 E PPA 30 SW CDS LBB.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ESE HXD AMG 10 ENE TLH 15 SSE JKA 20 WNW PNS 20 N MAI
20 WSW VDI 45 WSW MYR 20 SSE MYR 30 ESE HXD.



...SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST TO TX/NM...

THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND ACROSS TX INTO
NM. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTERACT WITH CONTINUED
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME ORGANIZATION. LIGHT STEERING FLOW
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST, AS
HI-RES SUITE INDICATE SOME VERY LOCALIZED IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS. ONE
AREA THE HI-RES MODELS PREFER FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC INTO SOUTH GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE AND WPC
UPGRADED HERE TO A SLIGHT THREAT. MEANWHILE BACK UPSTREAM TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY
AND PICK BACK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING. WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE SWRN UPPER RIDGE WILL STREAM SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST TX TO INTERACT WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS FROM NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND AN
ARRAY OF HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST NOT JUST ORGANIZATION BUT POTENTIAL
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THEN THIS AFTN, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SERN/SOUTHERN NM INTO PERHAPS WEST TX. WPC ALSO WENT WITH A
SLIGHT THREAT GIVEN STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS.


MUSHER

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