Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260751
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...VALID 12Z TUE MAY 26 2015 - 12Z WED MAY 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT TODAY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS BROAD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN ADVERTISING AN AXIS OF HEAVIER (1 TO 2+ INCHES) RAINFALL ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AXIS...ESSENTIALLY FROM NORTHEAST IA...INTO CENTRAL-NORTHERN WI
AND WESTERN-CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS IS WHERE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
BECOME MORE ENHANCED BETWEEN 2 SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAKS...ONE MORE S-N ORIENTED MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND THE OTHER MORE W-E ORIENTED LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO.

MUCAPES PEAKING BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH THE ANOMALOUS
PWS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY ROBUST
THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE TO GO ALONG WITH THE QG SUPPORT IN
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY... POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SW-NE AXIS MAXIMUM 850-500 MB
DEFORMATION. ALL OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOW ISOLATED TOTALS
OVER 2.5-3 INCHES...THE BULK OF WHICH WOULD FALL IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (AGAIN
COINCIDING TO PEAK DIURNAL INSTBY). GIVEN THE RELATIVE LOW FFG
OVER THIS AREA...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES
LATER TODAY.


...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST REGION...

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
EXIST WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM NEW
ORLEANS EAST TOWARD PENSACOLA...GIVEN THE ONGOING (ALBEIT
WEAKENING) MCS EARLY AND WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE
MOST FAVORABLE (PWS NEAR 2.00 INCHES AND MUCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG). BY AFTERNOON...THE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER
OVER THIS REGION...HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE LOWER...SUPPORTIVE OF MORE
AIRMASS/PULSE TYPE STORMS WITHOUT THE ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY
OBSERVED WITH THE MCS THIS MORNING.

HURLEY
$$





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