Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 310654
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...VALID 06Z SUN AUG 31 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 01 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW SZL 10 NNE TOP BIE 25 WSW SLB 20 E RGK 30 W IOW EOK
40 SSE IRK 25 NNW SZL.


NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY

A COLD FRONT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING MEAN UPPER TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER AIR
OBS SUPPORTED THE MODEL FORECAST IDEA OF A WELL DEFINED REGION OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN A NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES.  THE
RESULTING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY AND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ONCE IT
ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING LLJ.  THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE GENERAL PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN ALTHOUGH PCPN AMOUNTS
VARIED.  ONE PCPN MAX ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY SHOULD BE AIDED BY
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET...WHICH CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH IN IA AND PARTS OF ADJOINING STATES SHOULD BLOSSOM IN
RESPONSE TO THE LLJ.  THE WPC PCPN MAX IN THE SOUTHERN AREA WAS ON
THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES IN AN AREA WHICH RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN RECENTLY.  AS A RESULT WE PLACED A SLIGHT RISK
ALONG THE AXIS WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO ALIGN WITH WHERE THE MODELS
EXPECT THE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT.  THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE MUCH WETTER
SOLNS SHOWN BY THE ARW AND NMMB MAY PROVE CORRECT.

BANN
$$




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