Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 221359
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
958 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...VALID 15Z TUE JUL 22 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

12Z RAOB DATA SUGGESTS PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH THE
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES ALREADY IN PLACE
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES INLAND.  SUSPECT
THE CELLS WHICH PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ISOLATED AND
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY
RETROGRADING THE CLOSED H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TO THE EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM..VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC..SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM FL AND GA INTO THE CARLOINAS AND
BACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY..WHERE 2+ INCH PWS WILL BE COMMON.
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THRUOUT THIS ENTIRE
REGION AS HEATING INCREASES ON TUESDAY..BUT WITH ONE AREA OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE.  THIS ONE AREA WILL BE THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS..AND IN PARTICULAR COASTAL NC..WHERE ATLANTIC
INFLOW OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED INTO A WEAK
SURFACE/COASTAL TROF EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  HERE..AREAL AVERAGE 1-2
INCH RAINS COULD OCCUR..BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT..ALL OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS.


...NEW MEXICO...

THE AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TX WAS ANOMOMOUSLY
MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNNING SOME 125 TO 150
PCT OF NORMAL.  GIVEN SOME UPPER SUPPORT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
MID LEVEL HIGH...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  ISOLATED
PROBLEMS DUE TO RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN...MAY
RESULT GIVEN SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE CONVECTION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TERRY/BANN

$$





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