Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 311851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 01/0000 UTC THRU JUN 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A BROAD WARM SECTOR WAS IN PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY
RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. MODELS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND...AS THE FORCING MECHANISMS MIGRATE ONLY SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTH. HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY WELL FOCUSED THIS PERIOD...AND THE TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF CONVECTION WILL DEPEND TO A LARGE EXTENT ON CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MODERATE QPF IS OUTLINED SOUTH OF
AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WITHIN THIS ZONE...RADARS HAD LIT
UP WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ALL EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS...FROM CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER
LEVEL UPSLOPE AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT...HOWEVER...WERE MAXIMIZED
FARTHER WEST ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE TX/OK CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
SEND OUTFLOWS IN ALL DIRECTIONS...BUT WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINED RAINFALL WITHIN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST TX AND THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...AS WELL AS
ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SAME TIME...EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND OF PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION TO
COME OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING.

THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FOCUS...ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
MODEL TRENDS FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE...CAUSES US TO ERR ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...BUT THE WPC FORECAST STILL DELIVERS VERY
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL TO A REGION THAT IS
AS SATURATED AS IT CAN BE. DURING THIS CYCLE WE FOLLOWED THE
MULTI-MODEL TREND TO DECREASE QPF ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...BUT TO INCREASE IT ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WPC BLENDED THE
INHERITED FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS. THE 12Z NSSL WRF
AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS ALSO OFFER SUPPORT.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

MODEL TRENDS WERE PRETTY FLAT THIS CYCLE...WITH DAY 1 QPF FOCUSED
ESPECIALLY ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...OUT AHEAD OF A MATURE AND SLOWLY MIGRATING CYCLONE
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO LEAD TO ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE / CONVECTIVE CELL REGENERATION AND/OR DEVIANT MOTION
LATER TODAY AS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS COULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...WITHIN A REGIME
OTHERWISE CHARACTERIZED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR SSW TO NNE TRAINING.
OUR PRIMARY FOCUS IN THIS AREA WAS TO REFINE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN ENSEMBLE QPF TOOLS
ARGUED FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DETERMINISTIC WPC FORECAST.


...EAST COAST...

POST-TROPICAL BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER COASTAL SC/NC WITH
OCCASIONAL SMALL SCALE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION
THAT HAD FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT BECAME QUICKLY OUTFLOW
DOMINATED THIS MORNING. CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER LAND...ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK...HAS TENDED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED
DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING CYCLE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS
FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAL AVERAGE QPF IS
CONSERVATIVE...GIVEN THE SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...BUT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION MAY EXPERIENCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 535215 536209 535203 531197 528193 527188 525176 521167
      515162 508156 505153 501152 498151 498154 500157 501160
      500162 498165 500166 501171 501176 499180 499185 503187
      507188 509189 509192 507198 502199 498200 494199 491201
      499204 503202 507207 508211 507216 505221 502222 500222
      495224 494228 495231 498236 499243 499245 497246 493243
      490242 490245 485251 488260 491262 493266 497273 500277
      505280 508283 507280 509275 513274 515272 517267 517256
      517251 516249 514245 509238 508235 509230 512228 517228
      521227 525228 529226 531224 535215
 0.01 544944 544932 543922 539914 536905 535900 535896 536885
      537866 536852 537846 539841 540835 540829 539816 536807
      533807 530806 525806 522805 515809 504816 491824 480829
      478831 473832 467831 462831 460833 453835 449837 445838
      435839 425841 419841 415843 402850 378866 373871 368873
      364877 357880 348883 344885 338886 319887 312890 307893
      306897 308899 313905 316910 319918 320927 319930 316930
      311925 306921 304920 303922 299926 300930 300937 299941
      294943 286945 281951 276955 272960 264972 258975 252978
      243989 240993 238996 238000 240006 244010 247012 249012
      257016 263021 268024 273028 278034 289035 297039 307047
      315059 318065 322068 331069 333071 334075 333082 335086
      342084 346082 351082 354082 354077 346075 347071 349069
      359069 363072 366074 368081 373087 378084 384080 387082
      390082 392080 392075 398062 405059 409059 410055 406042
      401024 395020 385015 379013 378009 379003 382983 386966
      387958 390953 404943 406940 411939 419936 445925 457919
      462919 465922 469927 467934 465937 465942 467950 467959
      469962 470969 468978 462995 460998 460001 462012 464025
      469033 476044 483048 487048 490046 493046 496044 501042
      505037 509033 518020 526007 529996 530989 532984 534973
      534965 536963 544944
 0.01 455103 455100 454098 454095 453095 452093 450092 448094
      448097 449100 450100 451102 451105 453105 454103 455103
 0.01 427781 426778 423777 417783 415781 413777 408772 400774
      396777 393775 395773 399763 398760 393761 388765 386767
      383767 381762 383752 383745 380743 378744 376744 375741
      376735 375728 373724 369725 366727 351735 338741 330745
      321751 316755 315761 314764 311771 306778 300791 298794
      297799 298802 301800 308795 312788 313784 318785 321786
      323790 326792 327796 324801 321805 317808 310812 305814
      301815 295812 292811 288812 282811 279810 275804 270800
      267798 268795 258796 251800 244807 260821 266825 274828
      285828 293831 298836 300840 301846 301850 303853 309852
      314849 317847 320845 321841 325836 330836 333840 332844
      336843 341850 345854 351858 357857 360855 363849 371829
      374822 380817 384816 386814 395812 401812 405813 414809
      421796 427781
 0.01 292083 287078 280072 275071 271069 265064 258059 255059
      252063 257069 263075 270080 277085 286088 289086 292083
 0.25 526857 527848 525839 523833 519829 515827 509828 502831
      479846 469851 464852 456852 452852 449852 448855 445859
      439863 428865 418867 412870 408877 402889 392897 385904
      370918 361917 355918 350916 345919 342923 339927 336933
      333939 329944 323947 316949 310948 304947 300946 298948
      294952 289961 287964 283966 277968 271972 264979 258984
      257987 257992 260997 264001 270009 274021 277024 282026
      293029 300031 306034 312037 317041 321051 327054 332052
      337051 342052 348052 353054 358057 362056 372053 377053
      384056 390056 394056 395053 393048 392040 391034 387030
      379024 369019 364017 362014 358009 357003 358996 361991
      367978 372966 375958 379952 384943 391942 395939 404934
      408933 414933 421932 425929 435921 439918 445916 458912
      469909 476909 480912 483915 484918 485922 487936 487948
      483956 483962 484967 486973 488980 490983 493983 498980
      500976 503972 504968 506967 517963 522960 524956 527944
      528938 528932 526927 524925 521921 520917 519909 517894
      514884 515874 520871 522868 525862 526857
 0.25 527973 528965 526964 524965 521968 519973 518978 517986
      515991 513996 513999 516997 518994 521989 523984 525980
      526975 527973
 0.25 491002 491000 490997 490996 490997 489000 489002 490003
      491002
 0.25 369779 369775 368771 367763 363758 359754 356750 354748
      350747 345746 339749 330757 328761 326768 325774 326777
      330778 335778 336785 335791 335793 339794 353791 364786
      369779
 0.25 365818 364815 362816 359818 358820 356822 354824 353827
      351831 353832 354830 355828 357826 358823 361821 363820
      365818
 0.25 271818 270814 268813 266811 264809 262807 260805 258804
      255806 254808 255810 258811 259813 262815 264817 266818
      268819 271818
 0.50 517853 517846 515842 510838 506837 501839 495843 481850
      465858 453865 446869 438875 433878 425881 422892 417896
      405906 400912 394920 391926 389928 389934 393934 397932
      403928 408928 411929 415930 419929 432919 439915 445912
      462907 465905 468902 470895 473892 478890 486889 487888
      490884 493878 504865 512859 515856 517853
 0.50 510944 509939 505939 504942 501946 499949 496954 494957
      493960 493965 497966 501964 504960 506957 508952 510947
      510944
 0.50 387047 388038 385033 380029 375027 370025 367025 365027
      364032 366039 367043 369045 374048 378051 383051 387047
 0.50 370947 370942 369938 363936 359936 355938 348942 337949
      331954 323957 315959 307959 301953 298954 296958 290970
      288973 283973 277973 274974 263983 261986 262992 268997
      273001 275008 276013 278018 283022 300025 317029 325032
      326034 326037 328038 330035 330031 332029 337023 340018
      340012 343006 347000 354987 362972 362962 364957 368951
      370947
 0.50 361780 362775 361769 357761 353755 349751 345750 340752
      334756 333759 333765 335767 340767 346770 347774 347780
      347782 351784 358784 361780
 1.00 491868 491865 489864 490861 490858 485857 480859 477860
      476863 479867 482868 484868 485871 486879 488876 489873
      491868
 1.00 460888 458888 456888 455886 454886 453886 453888 451888
      449889 449891 449892 451891 453891 454891 454889 456890
      458891 460889 460888
 1.00 456898 455898 453898 451898 450898 448899 446900 444900
      443901 441903 439904 439905 441905 443905 444904 445903
      446903 448903 450902 451901 453900 455899 456898
 1.00 447892 446891 444892 446893 447892
 1.00 439906 438905 436906 435907 436907 438907 439906
 1.00 433909 433908 431909 433909 433909
 1.00 428912 427911 426912 425912 426912 427912 428912
 1.00 427902 424902 421902 419905 417907 419910 415909 415911
      417914 416917 417918 420917 422915 422912 422911 423907
      425905 427902
 1.00 383042 382040 380038 379037 378037 377036 375035 373034
      372035 372037 373038 373039 374041 375042 376044 378045
      379046 379047 381047 383045 383043 383042
 1.00 354773 354768 353764 352761 351758 349756 346754 344754
      342756 340757 339760 341762 343763 345765 347767 349769
      351771 352773 354773
 1.00 354969 355961 354954 349952 345953 337959 326963 316966
      309966 303968 299970 296974 291978 286979 281981 276981
      271981 269986 272990 276993 288997 294996 298994 300992
      305993 308996 313997 315991 317989 320991 321997 324002
      327005 333001 335997 350981 354969
 1.00 295014 296012 294011 293010 291010 290010 289011 288012
      287014 289015 291015 292015 294015 295014
      310004 312001 311999 310000 309001 308002 310004
 1.50 346758 344759 346759 346758
 1.50 348971 349965 349962 346961 339965 336967 331967 328967
      324969 321972 321977 324978 328977 330979 330984 331993
      333989 335985 343981 348974 348971
 1.50 292985 292984 290985 292986 292985
 1.50 277987 277986 275986 275987 277988 277987

$$





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