Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 141945
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EST THU DEC 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 15/0000 UTC THRU DEC 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF ND AND MN ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
AXIS OF QPF EXISTS...A MULTI MODEL BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE.

...GREAT LAKES...

A CLIPPER WILL BEING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FADING ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED A HIGH
RES MODEL BLEND FOR QPF TO CAPTURE SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE LAKE
EFFECT FEATURES.

...SOUTH TEXAS...

A SHORTWAVE CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW WILL DIG INTO MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR DECENT WAA OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET TO THE NORTH PLACING THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION AS WELL. THUS A GOOD SETUP FOR A BROAD AREA OF
STRATIFORM RAINFALL. NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER LAND...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF TOTALS. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE ARE A
BIT LOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
LIKELY A FACTOR IN THIS. FOR QPF THUS WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
HIGH RES MEAN AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH AMOUNTS MAXING IN THE 0.5"-0.75"
RANGE.


DAYS 2/3...


THE WEST
~~~~~~~~
ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY PICKS UP WITH TIME INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS RIDGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH/EMBEDDED UPPER LOW DROP INTO THE SOUTHWEST IN TANDEM.
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, THE GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO
TRENDED NIGHT SHIFT CONTINUITY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE, WHICH LED TO INCREASED AMOUNTS.  THE WIDE DISPERSION
SEEN IN THE SOUTHWEST IS SLOWLY RESOLVING ITSELF DUE TO
CONVERGENCE ALOFT; DOWN THERE USED THE INTERSECTION OF THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE MEMBERS WHICH LED TO A WETTER TREND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM.  FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, SEE
OUR HEAVY SNOW/ICING DISCUSSION (QPFHSD).


GULF COAST INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID-SOUTH
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES (THE FIRST SHEARING OUT WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE SECOND A CLOSED CYCLONE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST) LED TO A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, AND OHIO VALLEY.  GUIDANCE
KEEPS WAVERING EAST-WEST AND NORTH-SOUTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DUE TO CHANGES IN THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST.  TRENDED
CONTINUITY TOWARDS THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS
OF EAST TX AND THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS LED TO THE INTRODUCTION OF A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

ROTH/CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 566044 566032 563024 561018 560015 558014 549009 542002
      531997 522989 514981 512978 509975 503971 499967 491959
      477944 469937 460932 447935 443932 440935 445940 448943
      454952 457962 457964 460966 463967 467973 469979 475989
      478994 481002 493024 499034 502039 505043 506048 506053
      506062 503068 500073 493084 487093 483100 484108 486122
      486126 483127 479129 475131 473138 471145 468147 463152
      460157 455169 448180 440190 433200 429204 427209 424215
      421219 418223 417227 417235 419240 430249 431253 429255
      430260 433266 441269 450268 459265 461264 462260 465259
      468261 472266 470271 469276 470279 473283 480285 484285
      489285 495284 507283 515276 518269 519263 518256 519249
      515239 516230 518222 520219 523217 528222 532225 535218
      537202 537193 537184 536179 535171 535162 535152 534145
      535136 532128 528121 526118 524116 524111 524103 523099
      524094 525071 528071 529074 531078 542100 545104 547107
      549106 552102 554093 556084 556075 557070 559065 563053
      566044
 0.01 488200 487195 484191 480189 476190 474194 471198 468200
      465204 465208 467209 471208 475207 479205 483204 486202
      488200
 0.01 492934 489917 489898 488886 486878 483864 480857 478850
      476845 476840 476831 474795 473784 472778 473775 472757
      469750 466745 462742 460739 458739 447745 437751 435753
      433751 432749 430750 429754 429763 428769 423774 420778
      415781 411785 400792 396793 395795 395798 400796 402799
      402803 400817 403822 408824 414824 418825 419830 419841
      418844 418848 417854 417864 421867 427870 432871 438871
      442871 446872 442877 439880 439882 441882 445881 452880
      456881 457885 458888 458893 456900 456905 458906 462910
      463919 465922 469915 475906 479900 482898 482901 478913
      477917 477921 479929 486939 486944 487947 489946 492934
 0.01 461957 461955 459955 457957 459959 460959 461957
 0.01 414708 412705 410704 403706 396708 389711 381720 377726
      375733 374741 374749 374754 376757 377760 379762 382764
      386764 390762 391760 395755 398749 399741 403734 407721
      411716 414708 414708
 0.01 380047 380042 380038 379035 377033 375030 373029 370030
      368031 366034 365036 366039 367041 369044 371046 372048
      376048 378047 380047
 0.01 361700 360695 357693 352693 343695 339696 338698 329700
      326703 323707 319709 316709 314711 310713 307712 305716
      303723 303727 302730 301738 299745 294756 291763 290770
      289774 290778 291780 292784 293788 295792 297797 299801
      300806 301813 304811 304808 305801 311790 317777 324767
      331755 338745 351722 355717 357711 360704 361700
 0.01 312086 313080 313073 312065 309059 303055 299054 296052
      291045 289039 288033 288029 289018 287010 286999 287990
      291952 298917 303900 303894 302890 298884 295884 292881
      289873 290870 290865 288862 288857 289854 289848 292839
      290826 289822 283822 276821 270820 264824 263827 264831
      260837 259844 261846 265846 268844 270844 271847 271852
      269855 263867 259880 251895 247911 246918 247922 247926
      247932 245935 242941 237947 235949 235953 234965 235975
      236983 236992 236999 234002 233007 232016 232023 230033
      228040 226048 225057 232069 235071 240073 244078 246080
      250081 257079 263081 266083 269081 277083 282083 285082
      290083 297087 301090 307090 312086
 0.25 521023 521020 519018 518017 517017 517020 518022 519023
      520023 521023
 0.25 499232 499226 498221 497213 493211 490211 483211 477212
      470215 466219 466222 469221 476220 482226 486233 488235
      493236 498234 499232
 0.25 473885 472878 471870 470860 468856 467854 464861 462867
      464873 466878 466885 465895 465901 468900 469898 471890
      473885
 0.25 450225 451222 450221 448221 447221 446221 445222 443222
      442222 441223 439224 441226 442227 444228 445229 447228
      448227 449225 450225
 0.25 461832 458815 459798 458793 456791 452796 450804 447809
      445814 449817 453817 454820 456828 457837 454842 449846
      446852 443856 443860 446860 451856 455852 459847 459839
      461832
 0.25 429798 429795 429793 429790 428788 426788 426789 425791
      425793 424794 423796 422799 422801 424803 424805 426807
      426805 427803 428800 429798 429798
 0.25 307081 307075 306071 303068 301064 297063 293064 292069
      293073 295077 298080 301084 303085 307081 307081
 0.25 286062 285057 282055 276050 274046 272041 274032 276021
      277009 277987 278976 280966 285947 287936 290927 291921
      292915 290904 288899 283898 277904 272911 269919 259932
      253938 249945 247956 247968 248975 248981 245990 241998
      239007 237018 238027 239049 241054 244057 250061 259064
      264065 267067 275072 280072 284070 286062
 0.50 456796 456795 454796 454799 454801 455802 455801 456798
      456796 456796
 0.50 456847 456846 454846 453847 452848 451849 450850 451851
      453851 454850 454849 456847 456847
 0.50 302080 302078 302076 302075 300076 300077 300078 301080
      302080
 0.50 288922 288913 285907 282906 279908 275912 273919 270925
      263936 256948 252954 251962 253970 256975 256980 255984
      251988 243999 241007 241016 243031 244040 247046 249048
      252050 259049 265035 268029 271022 272012 272003 272993
      272983 272978 274974 276968 280953 284937 287930 288922
 1.00 283927 283919 282914 279916 277921 272930 270936 268939
      263947 259958 260963 263966 267968 270966 273961 274956
      277945 281934 283927
 1.00 263021 265011 264001 260995 256995 253996 247000 245008
      245016 248024 251030 254031 257029 261024 263021
 1.50 271952 271949 271947 270946 269947 268948 267949 266951
      266952 266954 266956 266958 268958 269956 270954 270953
      271952
 1.50 258017 259012 260008 259004 258002 255001 251001 249002
      248006 248010 249014 249016 251018 254020 257018 258017
 2.00 253010 254008 254006 253005 251005 250006 250008 251010
      252011 253010

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 447606 455633 454638 452644 451649 446676 444684 442689
      439692 435696 428697 426696 423697 415705 401723 394731
      390734 385736 381736 379735 375733 367726 363724 359720
      357716 357710 357702 360697 365687 371678 377668 378663
      381658 386647 447606
 0.01 558032 556015 554007 552004 549000 546996 539989 532983
      527976 516968 513970 511968 508966 503959 500954 497949
      496944 493939 490931 487927 486922 482914 480909 479906
      479902 480899 480895 480890 481885 483879 483875 484872
      486866 484864 481862 481859 478853 474847 470836 465826
      462818 459807 456795 455789 453781 451774 451770 453769
      458778 462783 466784 470784 473778 476770 476763 477757
      476747 472736 468722 466710 461711 458709 455707 450708
      445710 442713 439714 437712 436716 435720 432723 428729
      427732 430738 428744 425744 421742 418745 416746 417751
      418759 421760 425760 386806 390806 393801 397798 403797
      405800 405804 405809 404820 407828 411839 414848 418856
      453933 460954 463960 465964 469974 471984 473994 478017
      480031 480037 479039 478043 476046 472043 467043 461050
      459054 456058 454058 453055 453051 452043 452036 451031
      451023 451012 448010 444009 437998 433000 431005 429009
      427013 426021 423026 417033 414037 411042 409049 407054
      402063 395071 388077 384085 384088 386091 396092 401091
      403093 402097 400102 397105 392110 388113 385116 383120
      382125 383129 387128 391126 396127 401135 405133 409129
      413126 418125 420127 420130 417134 411141 406149 406154
      407157 410162 411167 409172 406175 400182 395189 392192
      391196 393206 396208 401208 405215 408218 412217 420214
      425213 429211 429209 437202 446199 450197 452193 464182
      467180 471181 475176 477171 480162 481157 483156 488158
      497160 502160 506159 509157 510151 512146 511140 506117
      504111 502105 498101 496094 500085 497078 496072 495061
      495053 497049 501037 504028 506025 508025 513025 517030
      518033 529048 534056 539059 546055 553050 558032
 0.01 520271 523261 525248 524238 523232 522229 521226 519225
      515226 510228 505223 503222 502219 504213 506208 505205
      500200 492200 487202 479205 472208 466210 458212 443214
      440215 437217 434220 433225 448226 453227 455228 455231
      450235 447239 449243 455248 463252 470256 475265 477268
      476274 474278 470281 467288 466295 467301 468309 470312
      475314 478315 482314 488311 492311 495309 501304 505299
      509294 512289 518277
 0.01 442139 443132 444125 441123 439123 435125 432128 430130
      427137 427144 427147 429149 432149 435148 437145 440142
      442139
 0.01 329722 327709 326705 321706 314712 310719 302734 293748
      290753 289757 288766 289773 290777 294786 297795 301796
      306795 311788 311783 312777 313768 316759 322743 327725
      329722
 0.01 323971 323965 322962 319954 314945 310941 304941 294947
      288950 285949 287945 289940 292935 290930 288928 285928
      282927 281924 278919 276915 274912 271909 271907 269905
      266905 264902 262903 257908 254912 251917 248923 246929
      242941 235951 233956 232963 238977 236991 235006 234023
      234028 233031 229036 228051 229064 231070 233073 236073
      240069 245065 254071 261073 267077 272079 277080 285080
      285076 284073 281061 277050 275044 271039 266039 264037
      266035 268030 273027 279025 291021 302017 305013 304011
      301010 296008 292007 293004 302995 310988 317979 323971
 0.25 436624 440639 439646 436653 436661 435670 432677 426680
      419683 411685 406689 401694 396697 382699 382692 384685
      386678 388672 395659 403648 411640 436624
 0.25 514277 515271 515266 509260 505259 501259 497263 493272
      491284 490290 490295 492298 496299 502296 506291 510284
      514277
 0.25 492217 492214 491212 488210 484210 481211 476212 472213
      468215 470217 475217 478218 483219 488220 492219 492217
 0.25 498144 495133 492127 489120 484114 479107 474102 468098
      464098 462095 447068 441063 437064 435066 428069 426070
      424074 426079 426085 430091 432093 436092 437089 436085
      433076 434073 436074 439074 442076 448079 451087 451093
      449095 443099 440095 439100 442103 437107 445113 448115
      451114 459114 465119 470124 473128 474132 476139 483140
      488143 494146 498144
 0.25 483248 484243 483240 482236 481232 480231 478230 475231
      473232 471234 469236 467237 466240 469242 472244 474245
      477247 481248 483248
 0.25 474161 474154 473149 469147 466144 461141 458145 456150
      454154 454160 457164 462165 466164 471164 474161
 0.25 463238 462238 460237 458236 457236 455236 455237 454238
      456239 457239 458239 460239 461238 463238
 0.25 463218 463217 461217 459217 458217 456217 454217 452217
      451217 450219 450220 452222 453222 455222 457223 458223
      460222 462220 463218
 0.25 429791 428783 425780 421782 419786 418792 416797 416802
      417809 421809 423806 424801 426796 428792 429791
 0.25 304966 303964 300963 296965 290971 283978 279985 275995
      272995 268997 260000 253997 248998 245002 242005 240010
      239015 240019 242023 246026 251028 257027 263023 270016
      274008 284993 290985 296979 301972 304966
 0.25 267958 267954 267949 266947 263947 261949 259950 256952
      254953 251954 252956 255956 257958 260960 263961 266960
      267958
 0.25 442757 443752 442747 440745 438746 436748 435751 435754
      434759 433761 433766 434775 436770 436768 438765 440762
      442759 442757
 0.50 433633 435638 434643 431648 430655 427666 425670 420673
      415675 411675 405675 402677 398680 396679 395675 399665
      403654 410647 414643 419640 427635 433633
 0.50 511276 509271 507267 503270 501273 498277 496283 494288
      496291 499291 502288 506284 508281 510277 511276
 0.50 465154 464152 462153 463155 465156 465154
      488134 488133 487134 488134
 0.50 425789 424786 424787 423788 422789 422792 422794 423794
      424791 424790 425789 439758 438756 436758 437761
      439758 439758
 0.50 263015 260013 256014 254012 251010 248012 246014 247017
      248020 250021 254021 256020 258019 260017 263015

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 431629 434642 433650 431660 429668 427675 424682 420690
      411700 397708 395710 391712 387712 385710 381704 379699
      378693 380686 386680 391675 393668 396651 402639 431629
 0.01 483338 485336 487334 489330 490328 492326 494322 495320
      497318 499314 501312 502309 504308 506306 508302 509302
      528248 522240 517233 511226 507219 503210 501204 503205
      509214 513221 519228 521232 526234 529233 532230 535224
      543195 537189 532184 522171 514158 512155 508153 501149
      492137 487131 483128 480127 475126 472128 471133 470139
      471143 467143 465142 469170 476175 481180 487187 488190
      490193 488195 481197 475198 470198 467199 463203 457210
      454216 454228 450237 447238 450240 456245 457246 458250
      458255 457264 458270 460274 464279 467283 469289 467300
      465310 465318 466325 469332
 0.01 481150 479148 478147 476147 476146 475144 473146 472148
      472149 474150 476151 477151 479151 481150
 0.01 473882 473868 470863 469861 465860 459859 453859 450862
      447867 445874 445879 444884 445889 446899 448906 452909
      455909 457912 460918 465918 469912 470905 470897 471888
      473882
 0.01 445099 445096 442094 441092 440087 442080 444076 446072
      443070 440065 438059 438051 440043 442032 442024 441015
      441009 440006 439002 438996 434995 430004 426016 424018
      422018 420015 418013 415012 409012 399011 394015 391019
      389023 389031 384043 380052 389070 391068 394063 397062
      399064 400068 397073 394075 391077 388077 385075 384072
      381069 376071 373074 372079 379096 375108 372119 370125
      371129 380126 390123 397120 402117 407116 408118 410116
      412113 415107 416098 416091 418089 420088 423090 425094
      429098 430101 429106 430109 433108 436104 439102 443101
      445099
 0.01 423874 422862 420853 415847 412841 403827 399820 393814
      388809 381807 374808 369811 362817 356823 346833 341838
      335845 326853 320859 317862 313864 305850 292845 284845
      275846 255868 246879 239890 233926 233931 232934 232941
      233944 235950 240954 244954 247952 254951 261956 265957
      266962 266973 267983 268992 269999 271003 273005 277005
      280003 288000 291998 295998 299005 306009 309011 311010
      315009 316007 337986 342979 347973 357965 382947 392935
      393932 393928 397921 402914 404910 406906 413891 416880
      418877 421877 423874
 0.01 362128 364115 364106 363099 362095 361087 352073 355066
      357063 356060 354057 342047 338040 333034 330034 326037
      323042 315047 310051 305057 300063 294068 290069 286069
      275068 268066 257065 253065 251067 251071 253075 256081
      262087 267091 283097 290102 298105 314111 321115 325117
      328120 338130 342133 345134 351135 353133 355130 359130
      362128
 0.25 525256 518248 511239 506230 500219 496210 491206 487204
      482204 477204 473206 469209 465213 465217 466219 472223
      474224 474227 467232 464237 463242 464244 469254 473258
      476263 476276 479289 482301 486304 490302 505289 511287
      516283
 0.25 540203 536197 531194 526190 522182 514172 502165 496163
      489162 484164 487171 495182 499187 505192 517198 521202
      524203 528207 533210 539210
 0.25 428063 430058 429054 429050 427048 424046 423046 420046
      417048 415050 414052 414057 415059 417062 419064 423065
      426064 428063
 0.25 369914 370899 369888 366876 364871 361869 355868 349870
      343873 338876 335877 332876 332872 330867 324867 319869
      314874 309877 305879 303874 302869 301863 299859 291860
      277871 270878 265884 260892 258901 256923 256929 258934
      264941 270948 274954 283959 289964 291969 290975 290983
      297983 301982 310980 318976 325973 334967 339962 350949
      361934 367924 369918 369914
 0.25 334084 335076 333069 328066 324067 323070 320074 316078
      312079 305078 292079 287079 284080 284083 294090 301097
      314102 319104 322105 325104 331092 334084
 0.50 523262 513247 503231 498223 494212 491209 487208 481207
      477207 474209 471213 472219 476221 479224 480226 477230
      473231 470233 467237 469243 471246 478253 481257 482261
      483273 485284 488288 492287 499284 507284 511284 514280
      519276
 0.50 513184 512181 510179 508177 505176 502174 499174 498177
      499180 501182 503184 506186 509186 511186 513184
 0.50 357914 358903 357895 354888 351886 347886 333889 325889
      322888 322883 321879 318879 314881 303888 292895 283904
      278908 273911 270913 269916 268925 272933 274937 278943
      283945 287946 289949 293953 296959 298966 298971 301974
      306973 319967 330961 339952 346941 353930 357914
 0.50 306091 306089 306088 305087 304086 303085 301085 299086
      299087 299088 300090 301091 302092 304092 306092 306091
 1.00 491222 491219 490216 487213 485212 484212 481212 478213
      478215 480218 483221 486223 488223 489224 491222
 1.00 487246 486243 485240 483237 481235 478234 474234 472236
      471238 472241 474244 476245 479247 482248 486248 487246
 1.00 343925 344918 343915 341913 336912 332914 324921 318928
      312935 306943 304948 305952 307953 310956 316958 321956
      325954 332947 338939 342928 343925
 1.00 315911 311905 310899 308899 302905 297912 291918 287927
      285931 286934 288934 296931 303926 310920 315913 315911
 1.50 487218 487217 485216 483216 483217 483218 485219 486219
      487218
 1.50 480241 480239 479238 477237 475237 474239 475240 476241
      478242 480241 480241
 1.50 336932 335925 332924 329926 325930 321934 317938 314941
      310946 312950 319950 325948 328944 332940 335934 336932
 1.50 305916 304911 301912 297915 295918 292922 290926 288929
      289931 292928 295925 298922 301920 304916 305916

$$





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