Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251838
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES & CENTRAL
PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~
THE GREAT BASIN 500 HPA TROUGH MAKES SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION THIS PERIOD, REACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WITHIN THIS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TROF, SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DIG INTO ITS BASE INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS/FORCING THRU MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS..WITH ENHANCED TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN CO WHERE POST FRONTAL
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN LIFT.  THE LATEST MODEL QPFS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THIS
TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE REGION.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER
WEATHER DETAILS.


SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPARSE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NATION THIS PERIOD..WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS LIKELY IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE ROCKIES 500 HPA TROUGH..SOME LIGHT RAINS FROM EASTERN
TX/WESTERN LA UP INTO OK TRIGGERED BY AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THESE AREAS..AND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN FL..WHERE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
ON FRIDAY WITHIN THE HIGHER PW AXIS.


DAYS 2-3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS COME THROUGH THE REGION COURTESY
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA.
KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z WPC QPF HERE IN AN AREA WHERE
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL QPF SPREAD.  STAYED AWAY FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN PER COORDINATION WITH THE THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/METWATCH
DESK. INCREASED AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT TOWARDS 00Z GEFS-BASED QPF
REFORECAST VALUES WITHIN TERRAIN WHERE IT APPEARS TO PERFORM
BETTER.


GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SHORTWAVE SHEARING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWERED AMOUNTS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE PREFERRED 12Z GFS,
PER COORDINATION WITH THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/METWATCH DESK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES UP THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY.  THE 12Z GFS
INDICATED SOME GOOD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STEADY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  STAYED CLOSE TO THE 12Z WPC QPF HERE.


LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER TROUGH PARKED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP THE REGION WITHIN A MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH
PACIFIC-ORIGIN MOISTURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE.  A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA APPEARS
MODEST -- IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE PER THE 12Z GFS -- WHICH COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-5-1.75" SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR CONVECTION WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES.  THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (PER THE 09Z SREF MEAN) ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE THE LA COASTLINE, WHICH SHOULD
RESTRICT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE MARSHES OF SOUTHERN LA
THIS PERIOD -- MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
PASSED ALONG BY NIGHT SHIFT.  PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/METWATCH
DESK, STAYED REASONABLY CLOSE TO 12Z WPC CONTINUITY AND UTILIZED
IDEAS FROM THE 12Z GFS/09Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE, WHICH IS
ALSO IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 00Z GEFS-BASED QPF REFORECAST.


TERRY/ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 518077 519072 517067 513061 508057 501058 494059 491060
      489065 491071 493081 494084 496083 502079 505079 510080
      512083 515082 518077
 0.01 505148 505144 503140 498137 492134 487132 485129 479125
      476120 476109 475106 470105 467105 465108 465113 467121
      465122 463119 464126 468129 470138 478142 479147 473147
      467144 463143 459144 453145 452152 452156 452162 448170
      450177 448180 446181 443181 441184 441188 445191 449197
      452196 459180 457173 457168 459165 462164 466166 470170
      475165 480164 484164 487162 488156 488151 487146 489143
      493146 499148 505148
 0.01 479239 479236 479233 478231 476231 475230 473232 473234
      473237 474237 475239 477239 478239 479239
 0.01 469245 468242 463237 460233 457232 454233 450233 445234
      441236 435236 432238 430241 431243 429248 425251 423256
      427257 436253 445250 455249 463247 469245
 0.01 484806 483794 482786 479779 477775 473775 469784 468791
      468796 465809 463821 460832 457842 456848 457857 461863
      463869 464878 464886 463893 463898 467901 469897 471893
      473880 476870 479857 480849 480845 481839 482829 482824
      483819 483811 484806
 0.01 462223 457221 452217 447218 442218 436220 433219 431221
      430223 432225 435226 437228 441227 447227 451224 457222
      462223
 0.01 464703 463700 460699 458699 456701 454703 452704 450706
      450711 451716 453717 457716 458713 459711 462708 463705
      464703
 0.01 447204 448202 448201 446199 446198 445196 443195 441195
      440194 438194 439197 439198 440200 440202 442205 443206
      445206 447204 447204
 0.01 448012 455956 458933 459922 456908 450913 447929 443943
      434951 420958 406966 380985 373992 366000 363003 361010
      359017 359027 358034 356039 350048 347051 343051 331050
      316049 311051 307054 301062 296073 272075 266077 263080
      262084 265090 268095 282098 288099 289105 292109 296113
      300114 304118 308121 312121 319118 325112 329108 333103
      337101 340097 339085 343081 344074 345071 348070 350072
      350076 348082 349088 352097 357102 361105 366106 368102
      372100 375102 381103 385101 388099 391099 393102 391106
      383112 377120 376127 377134 381138 388145 392152 392159
      389168 390175 395175 400168 406157 405149 401147 404139
      407136 410136 412136 414139 416144 417149 420150 421148
      426134 429125 431121 434117 436117 436114 436106 435100
      438095 440089 441081 442075 443072 447065 445039 445025
      446018 448012
 0.01 443742 441740 439740 435740 433742 432745 432749 433752
      434756 434761 436764 438763 439760 440755 440752 441748
      442745 443742
 0.01 398936 398923 394922 391924 388928 380933 378935 373936
      364935 354936 350938 345938 342940 337939 335938 332936
      328932 326928 321922 315919 313918 308918 304918 298917
      290916 286918 286923 288929 290933 293936 294939 292942
      290947 288954 287959 285961 278966 274968 275970 280974
      286977 303981 319979 335973 338970 342969 348969 356968
      362967 366966 370965 373963 379959 384954 390947 395943
      398936
 0.01 295807 292802 286797 280795 271795 267794 257796 249798
      245803 241808 239812 239817 240822 243823 247819 249812
      251809 254812 258816 261817 264815 274806 286812 290812
      291810 295809 295807
 0.25 415055 416045 415040 412038 408037 401039 393043 386043
      380039 375040 370046 365055 364064 367072 371079 378087
      383086 384077 382072 376064 372060 369057 374053 379059
      384062 387066 387073 387077 390080 396082 397088 398090
      400089 400081 403069 403062 405060 408061 411062 412060
      415055
 0.25 393117 392116 390115 389115 388116 387117 386118 385120
      384120 383122 382124 384125 385125 386124 388123 390121
      392119 393117
 0.25 323098 322093 321089 321084 314081 310079 305080 297081
      294081 291083 289086 290089 296094 301097 308101 313106
      316109 319108 321099 323098
 0.50 402053 401051 399051 397053 399054 400054 402053 402053
 0.50 314090 314088 313087 312086 310085 308085 307085 306086
      304086 303087 302087 301087 299087 298088 299089 300090
      301091 302091 304092 306093 307093 309094 311093 313092
      314090

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 535215 536207 536201 535193 534186 532176 530171 528168
      523162 517157 506145 503142 498140 490133 484126 481118
      478110 473106 468100 463099 460101 457101 455098 443096
      441098 438098 433096 427094 430101 428104 423105 424108
      423114 424118 427120 431121 434119 439120 443123 446126
      448124 456120 458121 459124 459130 453134 451137 449143
      446146 443144 437138 434151 434156 436160 438163 440166
      437167 429166 427168 428173 436176 437180 436187 436192
      439197 442202 443204 445202 446201 444196 446192 448193
      450196 453196 455190 458188 469180 474180 479181 484184
      487189 488192 486193 483194 475196 470200 467203 462202
      457207 451211 448212 444216 436220 432222 431228 431229
      436230 438231 439234 434239 432244 435245 440247 442250
      464257 469258 473261 478263 480266 487282 491289 496294
      500294 504292 511285 516277 519267 522257 521248 519237
      519226 524224 530224 533220 535215
 0.01 509040 510026 510014 507993 503975 502970 501965 498957
      496954 494957 492965 491970 490975 490987 493008 493015
      494019 494031 494038 495042 495054 496059 498062 501059
      505051 507047 507042 509040
 0.01 498791 492764 489759 487752 486747 483746 479743 476741
      471743 466752 462753 461755 458756 452762 441777 434785
      432788 428788 426791 426796 422803 414816 411821 410826
      406831 403834 395841 390845 385848 382852 376852 366853
      358857 350861 345860 346855 345845 345839 343834 338825
      330811 326808 324803 323799 314804 311799 310797 308796
      304793 298790 287793 281794 277792 269789 265790 261793
      261798 264802 265808 268811 274814 276818 282818 290819
      295818 298820 303821 306820 311819 315821 314826 312830
      309839 303847 296857 289866 286868 282870 273873 268874
      266877 261884 260890 257893 258907 258919 259924 260928
      262931 265933 267935 266941 264950 266954 266960 268969
      269972 268974 270978 274981 275989 277995 281994 286993
      288992 289995 290998 294997 299996 303994 305991 309989
      314988 320990 322990 328988 331987 331992 327001 318016
      313023 305027 303030 301036 301040 297042 291043 292048
      295052 293059 292072 290076 285076 278074 272073 266074
      263076 263080 265083 270085 273092 275095 280097 287099
      296097 304094 308087 320038 325033 330027 333022 336019
      342013 345009 347013 346024 345027 348028 354024 357021
      360020 362015 365012 369003 374997 380990 385990 388989
      391988 396993 397996 397000 393015 393021 391026 389031
      385033 381035 377035 372036 366036 361036 359037 352040
      345044 341046 340047 340052 339056 342059 346063 350064
      354066 356069 359071 365073 370075 372079 375083 379085
      381083 384084 383079 385075 387074 389075 391078 396072
      397078 399077 403074 407073 412073 413067 416064 415061
      410056 405056 401053 401050 403047 406044 413040 414029
      419003 423994 426990 428984 435971 439960 447942 452935
      454930 457926 461918 465910 475894 478890 478886 478878
      480873 484864 489857 495850 497848 496840
 0.01 496840 496839 495838 495835 494833 494830 494827 494825
      494822 494820 495817 495815 495812 496809 496807 496804
      497801 497799 497796 497794 498791
 0.25 476136 476134 476133 474133 473136 474137 475137 476136
 0.25 527212 528205 526200 521192 517183 511178 502173 496166
      489162 483156 478154 473152 468145 465144 462147 464156
      469165 472167 477169 484176 489181 495183 499185 503193
      506193 509195 512197 515201 516206 520215 526214 527212
 0.25 516262 516254 516246 512236 510229 508224 503215 501209
      498203 488203 482203 478204 471209 453215 450220 450225
      453230 452233 450234 448234 447238 451241 461241 466241
      470245 477252 481256 484260 488270 492274 497277 502278
      506277 510274 513270 516262
 0.25 488234 488231 487228 484226 481226 479226 478223 476222
      475225 477227 478229 480231 482234 484236 487236 488234
 0.25 479812 478807 476804 473806 472811 461822 456830 452838
      449845 446854 443865 443875 446884 448887 449893 453890
      455886 458879 461869 464861 469842 472831 475824 478821
      479817 479812
 0.25 375905 375898 372893 365895 357898 347899 344900 340896
      336889 328876 324866 320858 319854 315852 309856 295868
      292873 285879 272889 269894 268905 268916 270927 273934
      276941 283958 285966 286971 290974 309969 316968 324964
      333960 340961 344962 349962 355958 361950 365942 367933
      368922 368918 366915 368911 375905
 0.50 511268 512264 512258 510253 506245 505237 503233 500230
      498224 495213 492210 486209 476208 470213 463219 458219
      457222 462223 466221 473218 489224 500242 503247 503250
      502254 500257 496257 493256 492260 494264 501272 507271
      511268
 0.50 485246 485244 484243 483241 482240 482239 480237 479236
      477234 476234 475234 474235 473236 473239 473242 475243
      476244 478245 479245 481245 483245 484246 485246
 0.50 482163 483161 482159 480159 478160 477162 478164 479164
      481164 482163
 0.50 471155 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466147 466149
      467152 467153 469155 470156 471155
 0.50 326894 326884 325879 322873 319869 315865 309867 299871
      285886 278896 274904 274913 275921 277931 280938 282943
      288951 290952 291957 292964 295967 299966 305962 308959
      315952 319947 319943 309939 312932 313926 317915 321905
      326894 326894
 1.00 483214 482213 481212 479212 477212 477213 479214 480215
      482215 483214
 1.00 315896 315886 313879 307876 301878 292887 287892 284897
      281904 280910 281920 282927 288939 294939 297934 302920
      305914 309909 313903 315898 315896
 1.50 308901 309894 308888 306884 302884 296889 290895 286902
      284908 284912 287920 291929 294928 296924 300916 304908
      308901
 2.00 302905 303901 302898 300897 297897 295897 291899 289902
      289904 289908 290910 292914 293915 296914 298912 300910
      301907 302905

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 519149 520136 519133 516132 512130 510128 507117 507113
      509110 513110 516109 518106 519098 519091 516085 513084
      487070 483066 481062 476054 470048 467045 463045 460042
      458044 455044 453047 448053 446056 444055 430044 424039
      421036 416036 417043 418046 418051 416055 411060 404058
      392066 385072 384078 386082 389086 391087 394090 398090
      402091 405089 409090 408094 405105 403106 401104 399105
      396109 392111 389113 383112 380114 379117 375125 374134
      373139 375141 377130 382125 391122 393118 399119 404119
      405123 407131 407140 410150 410162 412172 415182 416187
      415191 417201 416211 416222 414234 414239 416243 416246
      418248 424250 429251 432250 440249 467246 477246 481248
      484245 484232 487229 490228 497232 502230 504228 503223
      503212 505208 506199 511190 515181 516166 517156 519149
 0.01 500680 494662 491654 487649 482647 477648 473649 470652
      467653 465649 462645 461646 458651 456654 453657 451662
      448670 446678 443685 438692 428695 419697 415693 411686
      409683 408679 405673 399669 394666 392664 388665 379668
      373669 370672 366678 363685 357700 351715 337739 331749
      333755 335759 332761 330764 331770 335770 339771 342773
      344776 346781 345785 341794 336799 331804 326807 321810
      320813 317819 312831 306842 302848 297852 286862 282869
      276875 272882 266886 262891 262901 253911 252919 253924
      253941 249956 246964 246976 246986 246992 244996 244000
      245004 250009 255009 258007 263002 266995 271999 271012
      275017 277024 280030 278037 278043 276046 277050 280052
      282053 283056 283059 285063 288064 295061 301058 306053
      310045 313037 314030 311014 313011 313007 311002 304998
      302998 302993 305985 309978 313971 318964 323958 327952
      332946 337941 357925 368916 375907 383895 387889 392881
      396874 399867 405862 413856 426851 434850 440848 468842
      467858 467865 469871 471875 473873 476866 475860 474856
      472852 471845 470842 470839 473838 477833 483830 487826
      490818 496807 497796 497785 498780 497774 498762 501752
      502747 501745 498733 494725 498709 500695 499685 500680
 0.01 484977 485964 485952 484939 482932 477924 475924 475930
      474939 473952 472962 470972 470977 472982 479982 484979
      484977
 0.25 490219 491214 491211 487208 483207 476207 471209 465210
      459210 446211 441213 434215 432217 431222 434230 436232
      440232 445229 457227 469223 480221 486220 490219
 0.25 493148 493140 491135 483125 478119 472116 469113 467107
      464108 460123 455131 454136 455139 454144 450146 445146
      440142 437142 435147 434153 436158 439163 446170 447177
      447182 444189 446194 452195 455191 461184 466174 470173
      474174 480176 485174 493148
 0.25 479241 479239 478238 477237 476235 476234 474234 473234
      473236 474237 475239 477239 477240 478241 479241
 0.25 484750 484737 481723 477713 472705 469702 467702 464707
      464713 462717 462722 465735 467745 466750 464755 466779
      468789 466796 466801 467806 469810 474812 477808 481800
      483794 483789 481778 480770 480762 483756 484750
 0.25 464236 462234 459233 455232 453233 450233 448234 445235
      442236 441239 444240 446240 449241 452240 454240 458239
      460239 462238 464236
 0.25 462104 462101 461101 460100 459101 460103 460104 461105
      462104
 0.25 453110 452105 449102 444100 439100 437102 433106 431111
      436114 441115 445116 449116 452112 453110
 0.25 414802 412789 408785 404783 396786 391790 381799 378803
      373806 361810 346813 339816 334820 330824 327829 321838
      314849 306861 299868 292876 283886 282890 283894 286900
      287904 286908 284912 279922 273935 266946 262957 262966
      264971 266973 269973 276971 282969 288964 295957 303950
      323934 332927 340920 358901 365893 372885 381873 387863
      398841 405829 411814 414802
 0.50 458180 458177 456176 455177 454179 453181 453182 455184
      457182 457181 458180
 0.50 483214 481211 477212 470214 461215 453215 446218 442220
      442223 443225 446226 450224 453222 458223 466220 474219
      480216 483214
 0.50 490139 487136 481133 477130 474129 471130 470136 465137
      461141 459146 458153 460158 463162 467165 473167 479167
      482165 483161 481155 477151 474147 473141 476138 482138
      486140 490139
 0.50 448158 448157 447155 446154 445153 443152 441151 440149
      438151 438153 439156 441157 442158 444159 446159 447159
      448158
 0.50 380852 380846 379842 377838 374836 372832 368829 360825
      354822 346825 332836 322847 311861 306867 301871 294878
      289885 287888 287892 291897 291902 290907 286916 281930
      277940 276945 277952 280953 285952 291948 297943 305939
      317930 324924 330918 352894 362884 368876 373869 377862
      380852
 1.00 354870 355863 353856 350851 346849 341848 337850 332853
      329857 323864 317874 312880 306882 301884 299889 298894
      297902 295907 291915 288920 287927 289932 292933 303930
      311925 318917 331904 344888 350881 352876 354870
 1.50 340880 340874 337871 332877 327883 322890 317897 313905
      313910 317911 322906 328900 333891 337884 340880

$$




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