Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240617
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 24/1200 UTC THRU AUG 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


SRN MIDATL/SE COAST...

SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE SRN MIDATC/SE COAST WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SCTD CONVECTION THIS PD WITH MODELS INDICATING DECENT RT
ENTRANCE REGION JET SUPPORT ASSOCD WITH UPPER TROF MOVING ACRS THE
ERN GT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MSTR IS FCST
TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH IS WHERE THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AND HEAVER RAINS AMOUNTS WILL PREVAIL.

SOUTH FL...

THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF/VORT AND RATHER A
RATHER DEEP POOL OF MSTR ACRS SOUTH FL AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT..WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS
THIS REGION DURING THE DAY 1 PD.  THE 00Z NAM WOULD APPEAR TO BE
SOMEWHAT OF A HEAVIER OUTLIER SOLN INLAND ACRS SRN FL..AS MOST OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SE COAST AND
OFFSHORE...SO MANUAL QPF TENDED TOWARD A NON-NAM BLEND ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY.  GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK FLOW..AND FORECAST PWS OVER
2.25 INCHES...SOME SLOW MOVING VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE PSBL.

SRN ROCKIES/NM/SRN HI PLAINS...

WEAK S/WV ENERGY NOTED AT 5H MOVING EWD ACRS AZ/SRN CO DURING THE
DAY 1 PD IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COVERAGE
PARTICULARLY ACRS PORTIONS OF ERN AZ WHERE TIMING OF ASSOCD 25H
TROF WILL TEND TO ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION WHERE
LOCAL POOLING OF AXIS OF MDTLY HI PWS AND ELY UPSLOPE CONDS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.  SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE
LIKELY BASED ON CONSENSUS OF 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE..WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS.  A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY ALONG WITH 00Z NAM CONEST AND WRF ARW WERE PRIMARILY
USED.

WRN GULF COAST...

RAIN AND HEAVIER TROPICAL SHWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
WRN GULF COAST REGION ESPECIALLY THE TX COAST LATE THUR AND THUR
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF HARVEY FROM THE WRN GULF.  CURRENT
TIMING AND NHC FORECASTS SUGGEST THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS WILL ARRIVE BEYOND THE DAY 1 PD BUT LOCAL .50 TO 1 INCH
RAINS ASSOCD WITH THE DIRECT CIRCULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
TX COAST ESPECIALLY CNTL/SRN PORTIONS BY LATE THUR NIGHT.  ACROSS
CNTL TX..DAYTIME HEATING ACTING UPON RATHER HIGH MSTR STRADDLING
E/W FRONTAL BNDRY WILL SUPPORT SCTD CONVECTION THAT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD NWD WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SW SIDE OF COOL HI PRES
SETTLING IN ACRS THE GT LAKES.  MODEL SPREAD ACRS THIS AREA IS
MDTLY HIGH GIVEN THE HIGHLY MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND
THUS CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS RATHER LOW.  EMBDD HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY PRIMARILY THROUGH CELL MERGERS BUT OVERALL
STAYED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 231001 242006 248007 249008 253008 263005 267006 269009
      272013 276022 284027 288029 292027 300021 324019 329022
      332025 328027 322030 317031 309038 303043 301048 297052
      293054 287055 278055 272056 266055 262059 261062 257062
      250059 245057 237055 232054 233057 238065 244073 249081
      253086 258089 268093 274096 280096 286098 288100 292101
      304102 309104 315105 317106 319104 323100 325098 327100
      330103 335108 337115 343123 347130 349135 352141 354147
      359155 362159 365158 363152 360148 359145 361141 363135
      364132 360131 355127 356119 353115 346104 345088 345081
      348079 350080 354082 358080 359077 362077 366077 369079
      371084 374089 380088 382088 384084 386083 387079 388076
      391076 392078 396078 401076 410066 411054 413050 414047
      417045 425051 435052 439050 441048 444047 446049 454056
      460089 457092 450091 444091 440093 430094 424093 426096
      430103 433107 439118 436127 436135 437140 436145 436148
      439151 444153 449157 449162 448167 448174 449178 450178
      455169 459161 461159 465159 469163 475164 481163 488165
      492171 492181 494187 500188 510191 513196 516202 518209
      520212 523217 528221 533222 536220 544190 541185 538178
      535174 529173 522173 519172 517169 516164 514158 505159
      502151 499146 492139 487134 484130 481123 478122 474122
      474118 474113 476110 478105 479099 477094 481092 487090
      491086 495082 499076 503072 509072 514072 518071 526071
      530070 540062 545054 548047 548041 545033 542028 538024
      531023 526026 523028 515035 506041 501044 496046 485045
      480042 476039 472033 468029 463027 455026 449028 445031
      443035 441038 438038 434037 431033 429029 427020 425017
      425012 425005 425998 428985 428979 430976 432974 435973
      439968 441964 444965 448967 454967 457969 459966 459962
      459955 458952 457946 456942 453937 450932
 0.01 450932 441923 432917 428914 422912 414912 411918 410924
      410931 413943 414953 412959 411966 409973 406979 404987
      397995 377010 370019 360021 348021 339023 335024 332022
      329018 327015 327013 332012 338010 348010 353007 355001
      355995 353990 349979 345967 343962 340958 337952 334945
      329935 324920 322914 318910 315907 313903 313898 313892
      311887 309882 306878 306865 308857 309850 312845 315840
      318834 322828 327824 329819 336812 340809 346807 349804
      352800 355788 364764 371751 374746 376740 379726 381716
      363710 356709 351712 340717 329724 318731 309737 300743
      292748 287751 279752 263755 257754 253756 236759 228761
      224764 223775 224781 225786 232810 233820 236824 242833
      251841 257844 263846 267847 272845 281842 285842 290843
      294846 296853 298856 298861 299870 296882 294889 290890
      285891 277882 274879 270877 259876 252876 248879 239885
      233891 227894
 0.01 493214 493212 492212 491213 490214 490215 492215 493214
 0.01 484214 483212 481210 478209 476210 473211 471213 469215
      469219 473220 476220 478219 480218 482216 484214
 0.01 473138 473136 473133 473131 472128 471126 471125 470124
      468123 466125 465127 465129 465132 464134 464136 464139
      464141 465144 466143 468142 470140 472139 473138
 0.01 462711 460708 457708 451710 449712 449716 450722 449725
      446726 446728 445732 445737 447739 452738 455733 457727
      459721 461713 462711
 0.01 451080 450078 450075 448073 446072 445070 443069 441069
      440071 439072 440072 441072 443072 444075 446075 448075
      449078 451080 451080
 0.01 447831 447826 446824 444822 441820 439818 437818 435816
      433816 434818 436821 437825 439827 441829 443832 445832
      447831
 0.01 438763 437752 434751 432752 429755 426754 425751 424745
      422744 418745 418747 420751 420755 419761 421783 420791
      419797 414802 411799 409795 405785 401778 395777 387785
      384791 383795 384800 385802 388803 394804 399808 400813
      402816 402823 405829 408833 412828 414821 418816 421811
      426805 427803 430804 433809 435811 435808 433799 432790
      434783 437770 438763
 0.01 426871 425869 423867 422865 421862 417861 415861 412861
      410863 408864 410866 412866 414868 417870 419870 421872
      424872 426871
 0.01 411105 411101 412096 410094 408093 406093 404095 402097
      402102 402106 404107 405109 407108 409108 411105
 0.01 388762 388760 388758 386758 384761 384763 383766 383768
      385768 385767 387765 388763 388762
 0.01 383122 383120 383119 383120 381121 381122 381124 383122
      383122
 0.01 282995 282991 282987 282983 281980 279981 275982 273984
      272986 270988 270993 270997 271999 275001 278999 280997
      282995
 0.25 456106 457103 456101 455102 453103 453105 454106 456106
      456106
 0.25 415005 415001 414998 412998 410001 408003 406005 405007
      403009 402013 402016 404018 407017 409016 411013 413011
      414008 415005
 0.25 362738 362729 362725 359723 347725 341728 336731 329737
      323745 318753 313764 311768 310773 311781 310787 307797
      307803 308810 312819 318819 322817 327809 334802 339795
      345784 349776 352763 356755 360745 362738
 0.25 365050 365042 367036 367032 365029 361027 353025 348026
      335030 331032 326036 323040 322046 317050 315053 315056
      320060 326060 332058 336055 337051 342050 350049 354051
      358053 362053 365050
 0.25 345998 344990 341984 336981 334977 328973 323972 312976
      307979 303983 301990 300996 297002 295004 297007 301008
      307008 314007 320005 330001 337000 344000 345998
 0.25 338082 339080 338078 338076 337076 336074 334074 333075
      331076 329077 329078 328079 329080 329081 330083 331083
      332084 334085 335085 336084 337082 338082
 0.25 231973 235977 241979 252980 259980 268979 277976 283973
      287968 292960 300950 303945 306947 309949 311947 314941
      313930 311924 310914 306903 304897 301896 300899 299906
      297912 286909 277904 270895 266891 262888 256888 249890
      241895 232902 227908
 0.25 300082 300075 299071 296068 291067 283070 274073 271075
      268074 263072 258073 257078 259082 263084 268085 277086
      285085 294083 300082
 0.25 292776 291771 287770 280769 261769 256770 250771 245775
      238789 240801 241811 242817 243821 248827 254831 262833
      271830 277826 279821 279817 279811 283804 287797 288787
      291780 292776
 0.50 361032 357028 350028 345029 339030 334032 329036 328041
      330043 333043 340043 345041 351040 356038 360034 361032
 0.50 350740 347736 345734 341733 336736 331742 327748 322756
      320763 317781 316792 317797 319800 321804 318808 315813
      319813 322810 327805 332799 335791 336782 339773 344757
      349741 350740
 0.50 337991 334986 330982 324981 317980 312982 308988 310991
      313992 317995 320999 326997 331995 336993 337991
 0.50 331053 329051 327051 325051 323051 322051 320052 319054
      319056 319057 321058 323058 325057 326057 327057 328056
      330055 330053 331053
 0.50 309935 309930 308926 308924 307920 306917 304915 303917
      301920 301922 301926 301928 303931 305934 307935 309935
 0.50 298078 298075 297073 296072 295071 293071 291071 289072
      288072 287074 286074 287075 288077 289078 289079 290079
      292080 294080 295079 296079 298078
 0.50 231963 237969 244972 253976 258978 263978 273975 279971
      285964 288957 294949 296943 297937 297929 297924 294920
      285917 279914 272907 268902 265898 261895 254895 249896
      244899 239904 234911 230917 228920
 0.50 282794 283789 282785 279780 274777 269776 255779 250782
      246786 244791 243797 244813 245817 247819 252821 261826
      265826 268824 268820 270819 272813 273807 277803 280798
      282794
 1.00 337751 336748 334750 332752 329757 328760 327765 326771
      325775 326778 328777 330774 332770 334765 335760 336756
      337751
 1.00 283941 283935 282931 278925 268913 262907 257904 251904
      248906 242910 237916 233922 230932 230942 232952 235959
      241965 246968 254972 259973 262972 270968 274964 281948
      283941
 1.00 276797 276791 274789 271787 267786 258788 252792 250795
      250798 249808 249812 251812 256809 260809 263811 266810
      267807 270801 276797
 1.50 271793 269792 268792 267791 265792 264792 263794 262796
      261797 261798 259799 259801 259802 261803 263801 263800
      264799 266799 268798 269796 270795 271793
 1.50 272954 273943 272935 270927 268923 264917 261913 257911
      253910 248912 242916 239921 236927 234934 233941 234948
      237955 240960 245964 250966 257968 263967 268963 271958
      272954
 2.00 268954 268948 267941 266929 264923 261919 257917 251915
      246918 243921 239930 236935 235942 236949 239954 245960
      254965 259966 263965 266960 268956 268954
 3.00 265956 264951 262947 263937 261929 258925 255922 251924
      248926 245930 243933 241944 242950 245953 250958 257963
      260963 263962 265958 265956
 4.00 263956 262949 260947 260943 259935 255932 252931 248933
      246935 246941 247947 250953 254957 257960 261960 262958
      263956
 5.00 261954 261951 259949 257946 256943 256939 254939 252941
      251943 253945 252947 252950 253954 254956 257957 261956
      261954

$$




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