Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 151357
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/15/14 1357Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1345Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND...VERMONT...
LOCATION...CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...
LOCATION...DELAWARE...MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA...
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ATTN WFOS...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...MHX...
ATTN WFOS...CTP...LWX...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...SERFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE TRENDS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
THIS MORNING WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOUTH TO THE WESTERN GULF.  TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WERE
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROF WITH NORTHERN MOST ONE OVER WI/MI WHILE
S STREAM TROF WAS PUSHING E THROUGH AR AND LA.  FLOW HAS BEEN BACKING
AHEAD OF FULL LATITUDE TROF AND HAS BECOME HIGHLY DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM.
ENHANCING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE OH VALLEY ALSO INDICATING STRENGTHENING
JET STREAK.
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LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
UPSTATE NY SW TO N GA AND THEN S TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE APPEARED TO BE LIFTING NE OUT OF FAR UPSTATE NY.  FURTHER SW,
SEVERAL WAVES WERE EMBEDDED ALONG THE FRONT PARTICULARLY OVER N PA
AND THEN SW TO NEAR N GA AND UPSTATE SC.  LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS
ALONG WITH 12Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE
WAS SURGING UP THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD PW ANOMALIES
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 200-250% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THE GOES SOUNDER DERIVED PRODUCTS HAVE NOT
BEEN HELPFUL BUT 12Z RAOBS WERE SHOWING MOSTLY WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXTENDING NE FROM THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND.   HIGHEST ANOMALIES APPEARED TO BE CENTERED NEAR
IAD WHERE THE OBSERVED PW OF 1.64" THIS MORNING WAS THE FOURTH HIGHEST
EVER OBSERVED IN APRIL.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400-2000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE THAT BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE
TO WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING RAPIDLY NE ALONG BOUNDARY FROM UPSTATE SC.
WOULD EXPECT SOME AREAS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION FOR LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2.0-3.0" ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AN AXIS FROM
E NC N THROUGH THE DELMARVA TO UPSTATE NY AND PERHAPS NW PORTIONS OF VT.
ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME THAT WAS LIFTING NE ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST AND OVER THE DELMARVA.  THE INTERACTION OF THIS PLUME
WITH UPSTREAM PLUME ALONG AND AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL GREATLY
ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS NE THROUGH THE DELMARVA
TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TO EITHER CONTINUE OR DEVELOP INTO THESE REGIONS BY LATE IN THIS PERIOD
AND EXTENDING BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4402 7344 4393 7177 4254 7124 3586 7537 3554 7724
3909 7656 4252 7499
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