Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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TXUS20 KNES 011321
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/01/16 1320Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES 13: 1300Z JW/JS
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ONSHORE AND APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IN THE REGION RECENTLY COMING
ON TO THE SOUTHEAST SHORE OF PUERTO RICO.  SAN JUAN`S 12Z SOUNDING
IS INDICATING DECENT CAPE OF ALMOST 1900 J/KG AND CONFIRMING A RATHER
CONSISTENT MOISTURE TREND SINCE 00Z WHICH IS SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE
LATEST MICROWAVE DATA.  AT THE UPPER LEVELS, SLIGHT DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE
IS SEEN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND AND A WEAK JET MAXIMA AT 250 MB IS
SEEN OVER THE ISLAND BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD HELP PROMOTE CONVECTION OVER
THE ISLAND AND  OFFSHORE. AT THE MID LEVELS, WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
ROTATION WITH CIRCULATION IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO .
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1320-1800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND MID-LEVEL DRYING SPREADING
OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND, CONVECTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INITIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.  THE
PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN EFFECTS ON THE ISLAND
SHOULD HELP IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MUCH RAIN
HAS FALLEN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WITH THE SATURATED GROUNDS, LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN (ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ISLAND WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL YESTERDAY).  SO TO SUM UP THE OVERALL
SITUATION, THE POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INSTABILITY
IS FAVORABLE WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE PRESENT, BUT IN ADDITION TO AIDING
INSTABILITY, MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE OUTFLOW GENERATION
AND MORE MOVEMENT WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1893 6764 1893 6440 1751 6439 1750 6767
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