Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 020234
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/02/14 0234Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0215Z  JS
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LOCATION...W ILLINOIS/MISSOURI/E AND SE KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE SENT AROUND 18Z WITH MORE INFO
CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR PORTIONS REGION FROM E
AND SE KS TO W IL.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SCATTERED LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION LIMITING ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN
THREAT SOMEWHAT, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATER IN THE NIGHT FOR SIGNS OF ANY
GREATER ORGANIZATION. NOW WATCHING STRONG UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE GAINING
STRENGTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENT ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHWEST PER
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. ALREADY SEEING SOME RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IN THE
GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS W OK/W TX SHIFTING
WESTWARD ALONG WITH A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FROM
N CENT TX INTO W CENT AND CENT OK.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0830Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AT LEAST
THROUGH 06Z AND POSSIBLY BEYOND, HAVE GREATER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN EXPECTATION OF A CONTINUATION OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH ONLY
MINIMAL ORGANIZATION TO MOVE FROM E KS ACROSS MO AND EVENTUALLY INTO
W IL. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED STEADY INDIVIDUAL CELL MOVEMENTS,
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME CONTINUED ISOLATED TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM THE REPEAT ACTIVITY. FOR LATER IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND
BEYOND TOWARD THE LATE NIGHT/VERY EARLY MORNING...CONFIDENCE DROPS A BIT
IN DEPICTING THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE GREATER THREAT, BUT STILL KEYING
ON SLUG OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND AREA OF GROWING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH GRADUALLY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING LLJ
TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN AREAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E KS/W MO POTENTIALLY FOCUSING MORE ON THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENT MO
TO E CENT KS WHICH HAS APPARENTLY BEEN REINFORCED BY RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION PASSING BY JUST TO ITS NORTH. THIS WOULD IMPACT AREA FROM
E CENT KS TO CENT MO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR EMPORIA KS TO W OF COLUMBIA MO PER
ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC APPEARING ON WEB SITE IN APPROX 10 MINUTES.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3998 9137 3914 8986 3786 9108 3747 9353 3746 9608
3879 9634 3960 9473
.
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