Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 070202
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/07/15 0202Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0145Z  JS
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LOCATION...W AND NW TEXAS/W TO N CENT OKLAHOMA/E NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPENES MESSAGE FOR ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT
WITH NEW INFORMATION.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS STATED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGE,
ATTEMPTING TO STAGGER SPENES ISSUANCE WITH WPC`S MPD`S THOUGH THERE IS
SOME RECENT OVERLAP WITH NEWLY ISSUED MPD OVER A PORTION OF OK. ALSO
JUST BRIEFED/COORDINATED WITH WPC MPD FORECASTERS TO TIE INTO THIS
MESSAGE. SINCE LAST SPENES MESSAGE, AREA BETWEEN MCS WHICH FORMED WITH
WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER E CENT NM AND NW TX AND BACK BUILDING LINEAR MCS
OVER KS/N OK HAS NOW FILLED IN OVER W CENT-N CENT OK AS VERY SIGNIFICANT
MERGER JUST W OF KJWG-KEND OCCURRED RESULTING IN TREMENDOUS UPDRAFTS AND
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD CLOUD TOPS/VERY INTENSE LOCALIZED RAIN RATES. COLD
POOL FORMATION HAS NOW TAKEN PLACE WITH OK LINE DROPPING TO THE S AND
SE. ONE RECENT ITEM OF INTEREST FROM SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE HAS BEEN  SOME
DARKENING(SUBSIDENCE) IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE E OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE ACROSS TX-OK ALONG WITH  INCREASE IN CINH AND DECREASE IN CAPE PER
GOES SOUNDER ANIMATION WHICH IS LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTIVE
BEHAVIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE
OUTFLOW/CELL INTERACTIONS HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE WITH THE FORMATION
OF THE VERY LARGE LINEAR COMPLEX OVER THE S AND CENT US.

OUTLOOK...AFTER VIEWING THE 00Z RAOB DATA AND RECENT MESO-ANALYSIS
INCLUDING THE BEST TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL INFLOW, IT CERTAINLY
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GREATER HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NOT
TOO FAR FROM WHERE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER W-NW TX INTO SW OK
(SEE APPENDED ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN
APPROX 10 MINUTES OUTLINING SPECIFIC THREAT AREA). DESPITE THE REDUCTION
IN SFC BASED INSTABILITY, STILL SEEING SOME HIGHER IMPLIED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THE NEARCAST VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCING PRODUCT OVER
NW TX-SW OK ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER BETWEEN CHILDRESS-WICHITA
FALLS WHICH MAY ASSIST MORE IN THE TRANSITION TO GREATER OVERNIGHT HEAVY
RAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA OF NW TX-SW OK. COULD ALSO BE SOME ADDITIONAL
MORE ELEVATED ACTIVITY MOVING FROM SE NM BACK INTO W TX WHERE SIGNIFICANT
OUTFLOW COLLISION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED AND CONVERGENCE FROM ABOVE THE
SFC TO 850MB IS BEING MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER GENERALLY BETWEEN
CLOVIS AND HOBBS NM PER OBSERVATIONAL DATA/RAP ANALYSIS. NOT ANTICIPATING
THE INTENSE RAIN RATES IN THIS AREA AS WITH THE ACTIVITY FARTHER TO THE
NE, BUT VERY LOCALIZED RATES TO 1"/HR MAY BE POSSIBLE.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3599 9883 3590 9701 3405 9853 3226 10023 3119 10359
3383 10415 3478 10338 3536 10203
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