Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 300238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300238
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-300345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Areas affected...Arklatex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 300238Z - 300345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 03z
across much of the Arklatex region.

DISCUSSION...Surface front is progressing steadily east across
northeast TX and will soon exit Tornado Watch 175.  Surface front
remains convectively active with the strongest thunderstorms located
near the intersection of a remnant outflow boundary and the cold
front over eastern Wood County.  As this outflow boundary weakens,
moisture/instability will return north across the Arklatex enhancing
the likelihood for continued frontal convection into the early
morning hours.  While tornadoes can not be ruled out, it appears a
linear squall line along the front will be the dominant storm type.
For these reasons current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch is
warranted.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31539509 34349455 34379285 31369356 31539509



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