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000
FXUS62 KCAE 231936
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
336 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP. MODELS GIVE AFTERNOON
CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...LIS -5/-6 AND TOTALS AROUND 45. PW VALUES
INITIALLY AROUND 1.4 INCHES BUT DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM WEST TO
LOWER PW TO 1.20 INCHES. KIS LESS THAN 30 AS MOISTURE IS MAINLY
BELOW 10 KFT. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING MAY LIFT MOISTURE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST PART. SPC HAS AREA IN
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS OUTLOOK BUT IF HIGH ELEVATED CORES DEVELOP
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERHAPS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
BUT AGAIN MAINLY IN THE EAST. HAVE MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE BUT
IN FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL KEEP 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
PLAN ON NO POPS IN THE WEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODEL BLEND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY. AIRMASS MODIFIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE NORTH BUT ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE FRONT
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIRMASS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND THE INSTABILITY INCREASES. EXPECT MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY TO THE MID 80S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE TO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL COME THROUGH LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITIES. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY
PROJECTING LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MAINLY FAVORING THE NORTH AND EAST FA. LATEST RADAR
INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. WILL
HANDLE WITH VCSH AT CAE/CUB/OGB IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH POSSIBILITY
OF HAVING TO AMEND OGB TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREDOMINATE MENTION IN
THE NEAR TERM. WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN...TO PRECLUDE FOG/STRATUS THREAT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$