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000
FXUS62 KCAE 181828
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS WHERE SUNSHINE ALLOWED FOR A BIT MORE HEATING
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HELPING TO INITIATE
NEW CELLS. WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE
AREA EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALOFT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE JUST OFF TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN IT IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE
TO TAKE HOLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY TO BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES. UNTIL
THAT TIME...EXPECTING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PROBABLY
COME IN WAVES...BUT DID NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING THIS FAR
OUT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE STORMS...JUST
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL.  TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DE PENDANT UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS AS IF MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
AREAS THAT ARE IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL REGIONS REMAIN IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE RIDGE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES LOW ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VARIABLE.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH FOG POTENTIAL BEING A CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD. BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AROUND AND NORTH OF OGB WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPO SHOWERS FOR
OGB AS DOMINANT BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME GROUND MOISTURE FROM EARLIER
RAIN HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG FOR AGS/OGB. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
CLOSER ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$