Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231434
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1034 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers remain possible through the afternoon. In
addition, breezy conditions are possible this afternoon and
evening as the pressure gradient tightens. Upper ridging will
build over the area for Sunday and Monday. A slow-moving cold
front will move through the area during the mid-week period with
the next chance of showers. Temperatures will be below normal
this weekend, warming to near to above normal values for the
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:30 AM Update: Most of the shower activity has moved out of
the region for the time being and have adjusted the PoPs
downward to reflect this trend. However, with the upper
trough/low moving over the area, there remains a slight chance
of showers through the afternoon. Any rain that does fall is
expected to be light in nature and the threat for any thunder is
minimal (<10%). There has also been some breaks in the clouds
this morning, but have been filling back in as the upper trough
moves overhead. Temperatures as of 10 am have risen into the
lower to mid 60s across the region.


Early-morning discussion: Surface low will track across the
southern cwa, while the main upper low moves through by this
evening. Ahead of these, scattered showers and possibly an
isolated thunderclap, will remain across the region through late
morning. After that, most guidance pushes rainfall further off
to the east as winds turn more westerly and northwesterly. Best
chance for any afternoon showers or isolated storms should
remain more along the coastal plain. As the rainfall chances
come to an end, the wind will be on the increase through the
afternoon, with wind gusts approaching 20-25 mph. Sustained
winds look to remain below lake wind advisory criteria at this
time. Afternoon high temperatures should be able to reach into
the mid to upper 60s. Drier and cooler airmass will be moving in
overnight. Temperatures drop down into the mid to upper 30s
across the Pee Dee and northern Midlands, with lows around 40
elsewhere. Frost threat appears minimal due to the low-level
winds remaining up throughout the night, so do not anticipate
the need for any frost advisories at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Fair and cool Sunday with upper ridging over the east coast and
surface high pressure building into New England and ridging
down the eastern seaboard. If ideal radiational cooling
conditions set up, some risk of frost, especially northern
areas, late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Fly in the
ointment is possibility of some high level cloudiness streaming
in Sunday night. Also, location of surface ridge to our north
may provide enough pressure gradient/wind over the CSRA/S
Midlands to keep temps up there. For now, will indicate mid 30s
and patchy frost for the N/NE Midlands. High pressure ridge to
remain Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper and surface ridge axes to shift offshore Tuesday, with a
front approaching from the west. Mean upper trough to develop
over the central CONUS with SW flow aloft over our region,
leading to slow frontal movement. Low pressure may also develop
near the coast Wed nt/Thu. Guidance indicating a chance of
precipitation late Tuesday through Thursday. Upper trough to
push to our east by Thu nt/Friday, with drier air and high
pressure moving in under a dry NW flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ifr conditions to start out, then conditions improving to mvfr
then vfr through the afternoon.

Scattered showers will remain across the Midlands and southern
CSRA this morning. In addition, ceilings will remain mostly ifr
ahead of an approaching surface and upper level low. Outside of
rainfall, visibilities will mostly vfr, with brief mvfr
visibilities in heavier shower activity. The rainfall moves
east of all taf locations between 12z-15z, with drier air then
beginning to move in this afternoon. Ceilings begin to increase
once the rain ends, with a return to mvfr, then finally to vfr
later this afternoon. Winds will be quite variable in regards to
direction through the period, with southwest to west winds to
start off, turning to westerly and northwesterly once the
rainfall ends, and finally to northerly by 00z tonight. Wind
speeds will increase once the rainfall ends and the pressure
gradient tightens this afternoon, with speeds between 10-15
knots, and wind gusts up to 20 knots possible.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


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