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000
FXUS62 KCAE 231439
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED
COVERAGE BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH
THE GREATER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASICALLY HAVE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE WEST AND 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE
EAST WITH AROUND 50 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST PART. MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING MONDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE AREA. THE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS LESS MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN H5 RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS.
BELIEVE THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AS NEARLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z. UPPER IMPULSE
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH/EAST OF
MOST TAF SITES. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...WILL
NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$