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000
FXUS62 KCAE 181224
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
824 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. CURRENT
CAE WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS GA PERSISTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CSRA
AND MIDLANDS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AS TEMPERATURES
RISE THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
SEVERE CELL IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT TO THE NORTH
WITH THE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY ALSO GIVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS.
UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT STILL AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP A WARM AND GENERALLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT LESS THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-LIKE
REGIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE.

CURRENT CAE WSR-88D RETURNS INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
AGS/DNL AND WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
OF SHOWERS IN CAE/CUB/OGB TAFS ATTM. UNCERTAINTY ALSO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WITH CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 8
KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$