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000
FXUS62 KCAE 180757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
357 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCE TO NORTHWEST PART
WITH 10 PERCENT OR LESS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S STILL LOOKS OK.

TODAY...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM GEORGIA. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
TODAY. LOWEST POPS 20-30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST FARTHEST AWAY
FROM APPROACHING TROUGH. 30-40 PERCENT MIDLANDS INCLUDING CAE BUT
40 GOING ON UP TO 50 PERCENT NORTHWEST PORTION CLOSEST TO UPPER
TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR N/NE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PROGGED. LOW/MID LEVEL JET AND SHEAR
WEAK. CLOUDINESS COULD INHIBIT INSOLATION/INSTABILITY. ARRAY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE CELL
IS ALWAYS HARD TO RULE OUT. 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS OUR FA IN
GENERAL. VIL OF THE DAY 57.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT TO THE NORTH
WITH THE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MAY ALSO GIVE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE MOS CONSENSUS.
UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT STILL AFFECT THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP A WARM AND GENERALLY MOIST AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT LESS THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-LIKE
REGIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATELLITE INDICATES ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HEADED OUR
WAY TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RADAR INDICATES BATCH OF SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR WEST
OVER N GA/ALA...SLOWLY SHIFTING ENE. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER
THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT THE FA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE N/NW FA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO
OUR N/NE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
ARRAY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES OF IT AFFECTING SPECIFIC TERMINALS MAY BE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$