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095
FXUS62 KCAE 251736
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
136 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build into the region today with the remnants
of a frontal boundary to our south. The front will push back
towards the north some Friday, and lead to a slight chance of
afternoon showers, mainly western areas. Fair Saturday through
Monday with a warming trend. A cold front is expected to bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday and
Wednesday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will build into the region today with the
remnants of a frontal boundary moving back into the forecast
area tonight. As winds shift from northeasterly today then turn
more easterly tonight, it will allow for moisture advection into
the Southeast. Despite moisture increases we do not expect any
showers just low clouds developing and some mid and upper clouds
associated with the remains of the frontal boundary. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s.

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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure axis to extend into our region Friday,
with the old front set up just to our south and west. GEFS
ensemble guidance, as well as the HREF CAMs suite, has
consistently indicated a slight chance of rain across the
western FA as southeasterlies create some upslope flow. This
feels reasonable, and should yield a shower or two Friday
afternoon. Mid-level clouds are likely to be hanging around out
there during the afternoon hours, helping keep temps a bit
cooler than they have been the past couple days but still in the
mid and upper 70s. Mid-level clouds are likely to continue
Friday night, holding lows in the mid and upper 50s. Partly
sunny skies are expected Saturday, with mid/upper level ridging
really beginning to build into the area. This will suppress any
attempts at precip and should yield highs back in the low 80s.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High confidence in the long term, as LREF members continue to
show an unfavorable pattern for significant weather. Slow
moderation of afternoon highs is likely, with guidance slowly
stepping us from the low 80s Sunday into the upper 80s or low
90s by Wednesday of next week. Our next chance at rain really
doesn`t look like much of a chance. The upper ridging will
weaken slightly by Wednesday, allowing a weak cold front to
approach the region. This feature is unimpressive at this point,
so maintained the slight chance PoPs that the NBM has currently.
Overnight lows will likely moderate into the low 60s by mid week
as surface moisture increases.
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.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Restrictions possible early Friday morning.

Expect high pressure to prevent rainfall today and keep skies
mostly clear with light NE winds becoming E overnight. As
easterly winds develop, onshore flow will drive moisture into
the area and may result in low clouds developing early Friday
morning in the Pee Dee. The low clouds may move over the TAF
sites around 09Z to 12Z but confidence is low. With increasing
cloud cover tonight and a 10 to 20 kt LLJ around sunrise,
widespread fog is unlikely to develop. However there may be a
brief period of fog at fog prone AGS/OGB. Winds will pick up out
of the east on Friday morning around 5 to 10 kts. Any possible
restrictions should clear by 15Z or so.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread aviation impacts unlikely
through Monday. A front could enter the region near the end of
the extended and bring convection and possibly restrictions.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$