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000
FXUS62 KCAE 130244
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions continue in the near term diminishing overnight.
Expect weaker winds for Saturday, but it will still be breezy
through the afternoon. Warmer weather and dry conditions move
in for the weekend and early next week as high pressure and
upper ridging move over head.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A reinforcing frontal boundary allowed for enhanced mixing late
in the afternoon and brought the highest wind speeds for the
day. With this surface boundary east this evening we should not
see gusts as high. Mixing overnight will prevent decoupling and
lows should stay in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...Amplified upper trough will be well offshore by
morning. Dry northwest flow aloft across the region. There is a
short wave trough moving through but only very thin high clouds
expected. Precipitable water less than 0.5 inches. With deep
low over eastern Canada and pressure ridge over the Deep South,
the pressure gradient across the area remains relatively tight
until the afternoon. Winds expected to be lower than today, but
still breezy with a few gusts to around 20 mph. The highest
winds may be in the morning as the gradient relaxes later in the
day. With relatively strong downslope flow and subsidence,
think it will be a little warmer than the NBM mean. Mos
consensus is a little warmer so went with low to mid 70s.

Saturday night...the surface ridge moves east over Florida and
extends into GA/SC. Expect more favorable radiational cooling
with lows in the mid 40s to around 50.

Sunday...Modest increase in moisture through the day with
precipitable water to 1 inch. Fast west-northwest flow aloft and
a short wave moves through in the evening with mid level clouds
expected. With warm advection in the afternoon as surface ridge
to the south pushes east, temperatures above normal in the low
to mid 80s. Strong mixing Sunday night should keep temps up a
bit. lows around 60 expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increase in low level moisture Monday. GFS Model soundings show
steep low to mid level lapse rates and elevated instability but
air mass appears capped with strong subsidence as upper ridge
over the Mississippi Valley builds east into the region. A
frontal boundary is well north of the region east- west across
the Mid Atlantic and surface trough extends south across the
western Carolinas. So dry forecast with some clouds and warmer
temps, above normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Ensembles and deterministic indicate upper ridge axis over the
area Tuesday, then shifting east upper low moves into the
northern Plains and southwest flow aloft develops. So increase
in mid level moisture into Midweek. Ensembles show an
anomalously deep low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with
zonal flow over the area. This trough may push a cold front into
the area late Thursday into Friday. So slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms late in the week. NBM temperatures remain
above normal even behind the frontal passage

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr forecast period.

Winds have diminished quicker than expected so adjusted winds to
around 10 knots for the remainder of the night. Winds will pick
back up with gusts again by 14z Saturday. Skies should remain
clear through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$