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000
FXUS62 KCAE 230531
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
131 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LIMITED COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF DIMINISHED MOISTURE BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS WITH THE GREATER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST PART CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUPPORTED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. WE WILL
GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START SO THE WARMER GUIDANCE APPEARED
BETTER FRIDAY. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PLUS GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORTED VERY LOW POPS. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR NORMAL
READINGS DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE ENE. MOST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE SC...STRETCHING SW ACROSS
NE AND CENT GA. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE CSRA. WILL
MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS FOR AGS/DNL UNTIL AROUND
09Z...OTHERWISE NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION PRECIP AT THE OTHER
TAF SITES.

GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIG RESTRICTIONS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...IN A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. WILL
MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT TO IFR IF NEEDED.
UPPER IMPULSE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY LATE THIS
EVENING...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION...OTHER THAN BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$