National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KCAE 170201
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1001 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE INDICATES HIGH CLOUDINESS
HAS THINNED COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY. THE
DIMINISHED CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
KEEP THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...FRIDAY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW. THE WEAK LIFT
AND MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS CLOSER TO FRONT AND
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT CLOSE TO THE
NC/SC BORDER ON SATURDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO MOS
CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA MAY POSSIBLY MOVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND COULD SET UP
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
SO WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL. FORECASTED WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRIER AIR
WILL HELP PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG AT FOG
PRONE OGB/AGS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
CURRENT ISSUANCE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC...EXPECT WSW WINDS AROUND 7 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$