405
FXUS62 KCAE 230711
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
311 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair with below normal temps today as weak surface high
pressure slides towards the coast. A front coming through
Wednesday afternoon and evening could provide a slight chance of
light showers for some areas. Fair and slightly cooler
Thursday. Weak surface high pressure will generally remain over
or near our vicinity Friday through Monday. Fair weather
generally expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure over the forecast area will be slowly
drifting east of the area this afternoon and evening. This will
keep a relatively dry air mass in place with some cirrus
drifting across the region. Currently the clear skies combined
with light and variable winds are producing optimal radiational
cooling conditions with temperatures generally in the low to mid
40s at most locations. Through daybreak expect little change
with a few few more degrees of cooling with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 30s in the northern Midlands and Pee Dee
to the low 40s in the CSRA.

After the cool start to the day the clear skies and light winds
will allow for temperatures to quickly recover into the mid 60s
by midday. As the ridge of high pressure slides to the coast
winds will become southerly and begin slowly pushing moisture
back into the region. With plenty of dry air in the low levels
do not expect any cumulus to develop just some cirrus drifting
over the area. With the clear skies and light southerly winds
expect afternoon highs a couple degrees below normal in the low
to mid 70s. With sunset expect winds to become light and
variable however there will be additional mid and upper level
clouds moving into the forecast area overnight ahead of an
approaching front. This will keep temperatures several degrees
warmer with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temp recovery back to near normal expected Wednesday in a SW
low level flow developing ahead of a cold front that is progged
to slowly come through late afternoon/evening. Limited moisture
with this front as the Gulf of Mexico does not get a good tap
due to a surface ridge axis extending west along much of the
Gulf Coast. However, latest GFS/EC ensemble means continue to
suggest a slight chance of light shower activity possible, with
NBM POPs remaining low however. Decided to indicate a slight
chance POP for some areas due to a preponderance of the
guidance. Surface high pressure will ridge down the Eastern
Seaboard into our region Thursday behind the front which appears
will stall to our south. Current indications are that any
precip associated with the front will stay to our south
Thursday. Slightly cooler temps Thursday due to some weak cool
air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure axis to generally remain over our
vicinity Friday/Saturday, with the old front stalled just to our
south and west. An upper ridge axis will shift east over the
region. Some model guidance indicating some increasing
atmospheric moisture and possibility of either some weak
isentropic lift and/or enough low level moisture return and
surface convergence near the stalled front which could promote
some shallow showers developing under the subsidence inversion,
aided by diurnal heating. However, latest NBM POPs remain low.
Not enough confidence to introduce POPs but this continues to be
an item of uncertainty and subject to some change going
forward. Upper ridge expected to shift offshore early next week,
with appearance of a cold front and associated precip chance,
approaching just beyond the current forecast period. Generally
near normal temps expected Fri/Sat, with a slight warming trend
Sun/Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Ridge of high pressure will remain in control of the region
through the period while gradually sliding eastward. Expect to
see a few cirrus cross the area during the period however with
dry air in the low levels do not expect any cumulus development.
Variable at 4 knots or less will continue through 16z then
become southerly around 7 knots into the evening hours before
returning to light and variable through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$