Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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AXUS72 KCAE 031651
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GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>028-030-051700-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1151 AM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

...DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA IN GEORGIA...

                        ...SYNOPSIS...

RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THERE WERE TWO RAIN EVENTS THAT PRODUCED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS TO NEARLY 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. THE RAINFALL WAS
EXTREMELY WELCOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE WERE WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING. OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

BEFORE THE RAINFALL EVENT ON NOVEMBER 13TH...IT HAD BEEN 35 DAYS
SINCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENT
BACK IN OCTOBER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MATTHEW.

SEE WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

                     ...SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

ON DECEMBER 02 2016...THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION
REPORTED THAT THE KDBI INDEX IS ABOVE 400 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THESE VALUES HAVE IMPROVED A LITTLE WITH THE RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED ON THE LAST 2 DAYS OF NOVEMBER.

THE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT DUE TO RAINFALL ON THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE
MONTH. THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTED THERE HAVE
BEEN MORE FIRES THAN NORMAL...WITH 118 FIRES DURING THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER. DURING A NORMAL OCTOBER APPROXIMATELY 80 FIRES OCCUR. THE
DATA FOR NOVEMBER HAS NOT YET BEEN RELEASED.

IN OCTOBER 2016...THERE WERE 118 WILD FIRES WITH JUST OVER
332 ACRES BURNED. WILD FIRE OCCURRENCES WAS 65 PERCENT ABOVE THE
5 YEAR AVERAGE AND ACRES BURNED WAS 53 PERCENT ABOVE THE 5 YEAR
AVERAGE.

THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY COMMISSION...AS OF DECEMBER
2ND...REPORTED 2 WILD FIRES OCCURRING ACROSS THE STATE. THE LARGEST
WILD FIRE CONTINUES NEAR TABLE ROCK. THIS IS THE PINNACLE MOUNTAIN
FIRE THAT HAS BURNED 10,560 ACRES AND IS CURRENTLY 92 PERCENT
CONTAINED. THE PINNACLE MOUNTAIN FIRE IS THE 3RD LARGEST IN STATE
HISTORY WITH AN ESTIMATED COST OF OVER 4 AND ONE HALF MILLION
DOLLARS.

THE UNITED STATES CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES RELEASING
APPROXIMATELY 3100 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND...CFS...FROM LAKE THURMOND
DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN.
THE CORPS IS PLANNING TO MAINTAIN SIMILAR RELEASES THROUGH THE END
OF JANUARY 2017 TO CONSERVE THE WATER CURRENTLY IN THE SYSTEM.

VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA
IN EXTREME...D3 TO EXCEPTIONAL...D4 DROUGHT. EXTREME DROUGHT...D3
CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA COUNTIES OF
LINCOLN... MCDUFFIE AND MCCORMICK. JUST EAST THE SEVERE DROUGHT...D2
CONTINUES ACROSS COLUMBIA AND WESTERN RICHMOND COUNTY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO EDGEFIELD...NEWBERRY AND NW FAIRFIELD
COUNTY.

GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE DROUGHT ACROSS
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

                 ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON NOVEMBER 29 2016 SHOWED LITTLE
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA. THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX THE ENDED ON NOVEMBER 26TH FOR
SHALLOW SOILS...INDICATED SLIGHTLY DRY TO ABNORMALLY DRY FOR THE
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT DUE TO
THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER.

                          ...DETAILS...

D4...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...COVERED THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIP OF
LINCOLN COUNTY.

D3...EXTREME DROUGHT...COVERED NEARLY ALL OF LINCOLN COUNTY AND
NEARLY ALL OF MCDUFFIE COUNTY AND NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY. D3
DROUGHT ALSO COVERED THE NORTHERN HALF OF MCCORMICK COUNTY.

D2...SEVERE DROUGHT COVERED NEARLY ALL OF COLUMBIA COUNTY...WESTERN
RICHMOND COUNTY AND EXTREME NW BURKE COUNTY IN THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA. D2 COVERED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MCCORMICK
COUNTY...NORTHERN HALF OF EDGEFIELD COUNTY AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD
INTO NEWBERRY AND NW FAIRFIELD COUNTY.

D1...MODERATE DROUGHT...COVERED NEARLY ALL OF BURKE AND THE
REMAINDER OF RICHMOND COUNTY ACROSS THE CSRA. THIS EXTENDED ACROSS
THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. THIS INCLUDES THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA METROPOLITAN AREAS.

D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWCOUNTRY. THE ONLY PORTION OF THE STATE
NOT IN SOME FORM OF DROUGHT IS THE PEE DEE REGION AND GRAND
STRAND.

GO TO WWW.DROUGHT.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.

              ...SOUTH CAROLINA DROUGHT COMMITTEE...

THE SOUTH CAROLINA DROUGHT RESPONSE COMMITTEE MET ON DECEMBER 1 2016
AND UPGRADED MUCH OF THE LOWCOUNTRY TO INCIPIENT DROUGHT. ONLY THE
EXTREME EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION REMAIN IN NORMAL
CONDITIONS.

                    ...GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...

THE GROUND WATER NETWORK MAINTAINED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WAS USED IN THIS REPORT. GROUND WATER LEVELS
FROM NOVEMBER 22 SHOWED THAT MOST WELL FELL SLIGHTLY...BUT THE
AIKEN WELL AND SUMTER WELL ROSE.

A HIGHER NUMBER MEANS A LOWER WATER TABLE AND THEREFORE LESS
GROUND WATER. A MINUS DIFFERENCE INDICATES LESS GROUND WATER.

AIKEN COUNTY - 430 WELL NEAR JACKSON
NOVEMBER    21 2016  162.34 FEET
DECEMBER    01 2016  164.10 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 1.75 FEET

MCCORMICK COUNTY - 52 BAKER CREEK STATE PARK WELL
NOVEMBER    21 2016   39.22 FEET
DECEMBER    01 2016   39.27 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 0.05 FEET

SUMTER COUNTY - 335 WELL NEAR DALZELL
NOVEMBER    21 2016   11.60 FEET
DECEMBER    01 2016   11.44 FEET
DIFFERENCE        PLUS 0.16 FEET

KERSHAW COUNTY - 433 NEAR LIBERTY HILL
NOVEMBER    21 2016   54.00 FEET
DECEMBER    01 2016   54.06 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 0.06 FEET

LANCASTER COUNTY - 497 WELL LANCASTER COUNTY AIRPORT
NOVEMBER    21 2016   31.92 FEET
DECEMBER    01 2016   34.48 FEET
DIFFERENCE       MINUS 2.56 FEET

RICHMOND COUNTY - 30AA04 WELL NEAR MCBEAN
NOVEMBER    21 2016  135.61 FEET
DECEMBER    01 2016  135.46 FEET
DIFFERENCE       PLUS  0.15 FEET

               ...RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

A SNAPSHOT OF ALL RANKED GAGES OF STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS ON
DECEMBER 01 2016 SHOWS AROUND 60 PERCENT REPORTING FLOWS THAT ARE
LESS THAN THE 25 PERCENTILE RANGE.

OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS ENDING ON DECEMBER 01 2016...THE SALUDA
RIVER BASIN...THE BROAD RIVER BASIN...THE WATEREE RIVER BASIN AND
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN CONTINUE TO BE IN MODERATE TO SEVERE
HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. THE GREAT PEE DEE AND EDISTO RIVER BASINS ARE
NOW IN BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT...LESS
THAN 5TH PERCENTILE RANGE...MODERATE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT...BETWEEN
6 AND 9 PERCENTILE RANGE AND BELOW NORMAL FLOW...BETWEEN THE 10
AND 24 PERCENTILE RANGE.

DATA SOURCE...UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

                        ...RESERVOIRS...

MOST OF THE AREA RESERVOIRS SHOWS FALLS DURING THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS LAKE RUSSELL.

LAKE RUSSELL                              LAKE THURMOND
NOVEMBER 03 2016 474.11 FEET              321.57 FEET
DECEMBER 01 2016 475.11 FEET              319.44 FEET
DIFFERENCE  PLUS   1.00 FEET          MINUS 2.13 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD                            LAKE MURRAY
NOVEMBER 03 2016 436.87 FEET              354.58 FEET
DECEMBER 01 2016 436.44 FEET              354.03 FEET
DIFFERENCE  MINUS  0.43 FEET          MINUS 0.55 FEET

LAKE MARION NEAR PINEVILLE                LAKE WATEREE
NOVEMBER 03 2016  74.64 FEET               98.51 FEET
DECEMBER 01 2016  73.66 FEET               98.10 FEET
DIFFERENCE  MINUS  0.98 FEET          MINUS 0.41 FEET

NOTE...LAKE LEVELS ARE BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL...RELEASES AND
LOCAL POWER DEMANDS.

THE LEVEL OF LAKE RUSSELL WAS 0.11 FEET ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE
LEVEL LAKE THURMOND WAS 7.48 FEET BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE LEVEL OF LAKE WATEREE WAS 3.1 FEET ABOVE THE 95.0 FOOT
TARGET LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DATA FOR THIS SEGMENT WAS GATHERED FROM THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS AND
DUKE ENERGY.

                    ...CLIMATE SUMMARY...

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 01 2016 THROUGH DECEMBER 01 2016

STATION   PRECIPITATION     DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL   PERCENT OF
NORMAL

COLUMBIA SC   36.20 INCHES   MINUS   5.27 INCHES     87 PERCENT
AUGUSTA  GA   33.86 INCHES   MINUS   6.43 INCHES     84 PERCENT

              ...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING MUCH NEEDED ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM DECEMBER 10 2016 TO DECEMBER 16 2016
CALLS FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2016 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCE OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECPITATION ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2016...JANUARY
AND FEBRUARY 2017 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

GO TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB PAGE AT
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV IN LOWER CASE LETTERS FOR MORE DETAILS AND
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS.

               ...HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE 1 TO 2 WEEKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME
MORE ACTIVE WITH STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTHWARD SYSTEMS AFFECTING
THE REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS WILL GIVE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO SOIL
MOISTURE AND FIRE CONDITIONS.

LONGER TERM OUTLOOKS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA FOR WINTER
2016-2017. THEREFORE CHANGES IN THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE DROUGHT
STATUS FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY
JANUARY 05 2017 UNLESS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

                      ...RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT MAY BE FOUND AT THE
FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP:WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
COLUMBIA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAE/DROUGHT.HTML
SC FORESTRY COMMISSION...WWW.STATE.SC.US/FOREST/

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LAKE INFORMATION:
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USACE...HTTP:/WATER.SAS.USACE.ARMY.MIL/HOME
USGS...HTTP://WWW.USGS.GOV

                      ...ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC
DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS
AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE...THE
USDA...USACE...DUKE ENERGY... SANTEE COOPER...SOUTH CAROLINA
ELECTRIC AND GAS AND THE USGS.

                    ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
STATEMENT
PLEASE CONTACT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
CAEWX@NOAA.GOV
LEONARD.VAUGHAN@NOAA.GOV



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