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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
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AGUS74 KFWR 251826
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

                     VALID MAY 25 THROUGH MAY 30

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Storm activity has continued in central Texas with heavy localized
rain totals reaching near record amounts around the San Antonio area
from midnight up to the time of this report. Short term models
suggest scattered convective storms expanding north and east
throughout the day.

A large sprawling closed upper level storm system continues to
develop over the pacific northwest, with the circulation
expanding into northern California and Nevada.  This system
is expected to move eastward later this weekend and shift the upper
level ridge currently over the area to the east.

This pattern is favorable for additional showers and thunderstorms
near the dry line over west Texas and the Panhandle down into
northern Mexico this evening.  It will push east-southeast into
north Texas with diminishing chances for rain over east Texas and
Louisiana. Some localized convective activity is possible for the
Panhandle again Sunday evening. Conditions are also favorable for
continued storm activity in central Texas over the next couple of
days. Major flooding is expected for portions of the San Antonio and
Guadalupe basins later today through Monday. Flash flooding is
already occurring in the San Antonio from reported rainfall totals
near 9 inches in 6-8 hours.

Mid-week should see a return of storm activity in far west Texas
eventually affecting the eastern two-thirds of Texas, north and
south. as the system advances eastward.  This will include Presidio
and areas around the Big Bend National Park reaching north into
Lubbock.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to one inch are forecast for central Texas extending
into the DFW Metroplex.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch
are forecast for Midland and northeast through Childress.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area.  About 67 percent of Texas remains in sever drought, or
worse, with 18 percent classified as exceptional. In New Mexico,
drought conditions are even more widespread, with 98 percent of the
state in sever drought, or worse, with 45 percent classified as
exceptional drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Antonio Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rainfall has been occurring since around midnight across the
San Antonio area.  Major flooding is occurring across several
urbanized drainage basins of the San Antonio River system in the San
Antonio area.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall has been occurring since midnight in the San Antonio
area.  This rainfall is starting to move into the Guadalupe River
basin around New Braunfels, Texas.  The Guadalupe River and the
Comal River, a tributary to the mainstem Guadalupe, is forecast to
rise to around flood stage in the New Braunfels area.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows is currently occurring for the South Fork
Sabine River near Quinlan.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows is forecast to occur for Los Olmos Creek
near Falfurias.  This location is part of the Nueces River forecast
group.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Near normal river flows are occurring for the remainder of the WGRFC
basins.  Although rainfall is possible, no significant flooding is
expected for these areas.  However, the WGRFC will continue to
monitor these areas in the event river forecasts need to be issued.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

CAZIER


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
