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000
AGUS71 KTAR 211637
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1237 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEAR
CAPE ANN MASSACHUSETTS.  ALONG THE FRONT WERE SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN
ACROSS MAINE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...BUT BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST OVER
EASTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
:
DURING TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING ALL OF THE REGION EXCEPT MAINE TO SEE A
RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.  IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROAM THE REGION.
:
FINALLY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A STRONGER BUT SLOW MOVING
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO THE REACH MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THE RAIN THAT FELL MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY PRODUCED RIVER RISES
RANGING TO JUST OVER ONE FOOT FROM THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER BASIN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...UPPER CONNECTICUT
RIVER BASIN...AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE.
:
THE RAIN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO
MODERATE RIVER RISES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RISES UP TO 4 FEET ARE FORECAST. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT RISES TO NEAR ACTION STAGE ARE POSSIBLE
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. RISES OF A
FOOT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERFC FORECAST AREA ARE BELOW TO
MUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS. FLOWS IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE RIVERS IN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP.SHTML
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:          STEVE NOGUEIRA
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                   JEFF OUELLET