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000
FXUS61 KCAR 221409
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...12Z KCAR RAOB SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PROFILE
THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW THE LAST OF THE STEADIER SHOWERS
EXITING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY UTILIZING THE RUC13 WHICH WAS DOING A
FAIRLY GOOD JOB AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS...ONLY EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED TO EXPECTED MAX TEMPS.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. AN
EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT. HUMID AIR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG IN MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD...

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE AREA BREAKING INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING
HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IT BEGINS TO COLLAPSE BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS DEPICT
CAPE VALUES OVER NW AREAS GENERALLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT THERE
IS CONCERN AS SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG, IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS FROM 0-6 KM, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES ALONG A FAIRLY
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS
WITH AGAIN, THE BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKING TO BE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE GENERALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP AS IT NEARS THE COAST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO LINE BOTH DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND PUSHING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO TRACK EAST OF
THE AREA THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLEX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN
SOUTH. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SOME WET
SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS
DOWN TO SHOWERS HEADING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COOL
FOR SUNDAY...ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST.

EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTING CLOUDS, COOL
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARMER DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY.


SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MVFR/IFR PERSISTING THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS. NORTHERN SITES SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING A RETURN TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY LATE DAY. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS REGION WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
CONTINUING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS STEADIER PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HUMID AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM:
WINDS/SEAS BUILD THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG DURING THIS PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/FITZSIMMONS