841
FXUS61 KCAR 021440
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1040 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track southwest of Maine today. High
pressure will build over the area Friday into Saturday. A weak
trough of low pressure will approach Sunday then slide across
the area Sunday night. High pressure will build south of the
area Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Surface low pressure will track southeast across New England
today, with high pressure ridging south across the Maritimes.
Aloft, a trof crosses the region today while a disturbance
moves through the base of the trof. The system will bring rain
to mostly west-central and southwest portions of the forecast
area. Lesser rain chances are expected across eastern and
northern portions of the forecast area, nearer to high pressure
ridged across the Maritimes. Only isolated/scattered showers are
possible across northeast portions of the forecast area. High
temperatures will range from around 50 to the lower 50s across
west-central and southwest portions of the forecast area where
the most extensive clouds and most persistent rain is expected.
Across eastern portions of the forecast area high temperatures
will range from the mid 50s to around 60, with the warmest
temperatures across northeast areas. Have updated to adjust for
current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures,
clouds and rain chances.

Previous Discussion...
The surface low is expected to be in the vicinity of Cape Cod
later this afternoon, and fairly quickly pull away from the
southern New England coast this evening. A mid level low will
cross southern Maine early this evening and also quickly pull
away from the coast tonight. A surface ridge will begin to build
down into Maine tonight. An area of rain will overspread the
Central Highlands and into Hancock County this morning, and
taper to showers and end this evening. Clouds will likely hold
in tonight with a light northeast flow and lows will mostly be
within a few degrees of 40F.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure will build over the area on Friday. However, we
will be on the edge of some moisture to our east wrapping back from
an upper low south of Nova Scotia. This will bring a partly to
mostly cloudy and seasonable day with inland highs in the mid to
upper 50s across the area. A thin ridge of high pressure will remain
over the area Friday night. The upper low to our southeast will be
moving away to the east. However, some moisture ahead of a weak
occlusion will begin to stray into the area bringing a partly to
mostly cloudy night. Weak high pressure will be nearby to our
northeast on Saturday as a bit of moisture continues to stray into
the area from the occlusion to our west. This will bring a partly to
mostly cloudy sky on Saturday. However, any showers should remain to
our west.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to slide to
our east on Sunday. A corridor of moisture supported by lift out
ahead of an upper trough lifting through the Great Lakes, and
surface convergence associated with an approaching occlusion, will
continue to very slowly approach Saturday night into Sunday. A few
showers may begin to move into the area Sunday afternoon as the
occlusion pushes in. However, both the surface occlusion and the
upper trough look rather weak and there are currently no signs of
any well organized precipitation. Scattered showers may last into
Sunday evening across most of the area, with scattered to isolated
showers over the north on Monday as the occlusion pushes east and a
weak upper trough remains north of the region.

Weak high pressure will return on Tuesday and last into Tuesday
night although some thin moisture will linger beneath an upper
trough centered well to our north. This will bring partial
cloudiness Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Our focus on Wednesday will turn to a new trough of low pressure and
surface occlusion pushing east from the Great Lakes region. The
upper trough is currently looking a bit disorganized with one low
just north of the Great Lakes and another low in the upper plains.
However, this one looks like it may carry a bit more moisture into
the area than the trough coming through over the weekend, bringing a
chance of showers late Wednesday or Thursday. Temperatures through
early next week should be near normal, to perhaps a few degrees
above normal.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at the Aroostook terminals today with MVFR
ceilings developing tonight. However, a chance for MVFR
ceilings to move into KHUL later today. MVFR/IFR, occasional
LIFR, Downeast today with rain and patchy fog. MVFR Downeast
tonight with showers early along with patchy fog. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots today. Northeast/north winds 5 to 10 knots
tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR. Light NNE wind

Friday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Saturday...VFR Light SE wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR late. Light SE wind.

Sunday...MVFR, possibly dropping to IFR late. S wind.

Sunday night...MVFR. S wind.

Monday...VFR. SW wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Rain today, then showers early tonight. Patchy
fog today into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through
the coming weekend and early next week. Some humid air over the
waters early next week may produce some patchy fog or light
mist.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/CB
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/CB/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer