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000
FXUS61 KCAR 161930
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MEAN WHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR REF IS NOW BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY FILL IN ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONT INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SE PTNS OF THE FA LAST TO RECEIVE STEADY RN BY MID
TO LATE EVE. THE MOST SIG RNFL WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL PRIOR
TO 3 AM ACROSS THE FA...LEAVING PATCHY LATE NGT AND ERLY MORN FOG
IN ITS WAKE AS A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST TO THE
CAN MARITIMES BY MON MORN. WE BEEFED UP QPF A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
18-24Z PD GOING INTO THIS EVE WHEN THE BEST LOW TO MID LVL WARM
ADVCN IS XPCTD...BASED ON LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA. BEST TOTAL RNFL
WILL BE OVR CNTRL AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY 09Z...WHERE MANY
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.65 TO 1.00 INCH(ES) OF RNFL.
OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NGT DUE CLD CVR...
WARM ADVCN AND RNFL.

ANOTHER S/WV FROM CNTRL ONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS MSLY
DURG THE AFTN HRS MON. FCST MAX AFTN SBCAPES OF 500-900 SUGGESTS
ADDING CHC TSTMS WITH SHWRS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ADDING ENHANCED
TSTM WORDING ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW MUCH AFTN
SUNSHINE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N WHERE THE BEST UPPER LVL DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER...SPCLY FOR NRN PTNS OF THE
FA BY MON AFTN AS MILDER LLVL AIR REPLACES THE RETREATING COOL AIR
OF TDY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE OR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY MON EVENING WILL PULL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON EVENING AND
SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE BY 12Z TUE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUE AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUE NIGHT AND WED. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TUE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AS
THE AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUE IN THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS DOWNEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW LEFT OUT
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER TUE PM. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
RAPIDLY STABILIZE BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...BUT ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT CU WILL BUILD UP BY
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD BE P/M SUNNY DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ALL THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS. THE LATEST 12Z GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH TIMING OF THE
00Z ECMWF. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST WE CLEAR OUT GOING
INTO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE DIVERGENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND SETUP
FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST WITH
GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY OUT THIS FAR IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK STAY GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY VFR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...THEN
CLGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR BY ERLY EVE IN RN AND THEN TO IFR
AND EVEN LIFR OVRNGT IN RN...SHWRS AND PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR ERLY TO MID MORN...WITH DOWNEAST SITES TAKING THE
LEAD...THEN BACK TO VFR ALL SITES BY MON AFTN...BRIEFLY TO MVFR
CLGS/VSBYS MID TO LATE AFTN IN ANY SHWRS/TSTMS MID TO LATE MON
AFTN.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY MVFR MON EVENING IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVING TO VFR
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY VFR TUE-WED...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUE. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THURS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD TNGT THRU MON. WENT BLO WW3 WV HTS FCST
FOR LATE TNGT AND MON MORN...WHICH IMPLY THE USE OF AN SCA FOR
HAZ SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS. WITH ONLY A LIMITED 6-9 HR PD OF SRLY
FETCH WINDS AND VERY STABLE SFC-500M LAPSE RATES...WE BELIEVE
THE GFS...WHICH IS THE MAIN MODEL INPUT FOR WINDS IN WW3...ARE
SIMPLY OVR DONE. WV HTS SHOULD COME UP ABOUT A FOOT BY MON MORN
AND WE CAP MAX WV HTS OVR OUTER MZS TO 4 FT THRU THE DAY MON.

SHORT TERM: SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT IN LONG PERIOD S-SE SWELL TUE-
WED. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE SWELL DOES LOOK TO ORIGINATE WELL SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB