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000
FXUS61 KCAR 250128
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
928 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the area will continue moving east across the
Maritimes tonight as a cold front following the low pushes
offshore. High pressure will build across the region Thursday
into Saturday. A warm front will approach from the southwest
Sunday and move to the Saint John Valley on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:28 PM Update...Issued a Special Weather Statement from around
Millinocket northward for icy conditions on untreated surfaces.
Temperatures are now well below freezing in these areas and wet,
untreated surfaces are becoming icy. Less of an issue further
south where less precipitation fell and where temperatures are
still above freezing in spots.

Also incresed PoPs over the next couple of hours in Eastern
Aroostook County where some light snow and snow showers are
still hanging on. This activity will come to an end by midnight
tonight.

Previous Discussion...
The frontal boundary with the surface low pressure system will
continue to push through the state this evening and tonight.
High res models show the boundary crossing into the state this
evening before intensifying and picking up speed. Rain will
switch to snow with the passage of the front. With the warmer
surface temps and mid levels, the snow ratios will be low making
the snow heavy and wet. By tonight, clouds will clear quickly
with the exiting system and the high pressure moving in. The
breezy NW winds and low cloud cover, temps are expected to drop
into the 20s. This is a concern for any precip on the roadways
freezing throughout the night causing slick conditions.

By Thursday, high pressure returns with sunny skies and warming
temps. NW winds will keep decreasing throughout the day as the
pressure gradients relax. The only concern for tomorrow will be
the areas in the south that do not receive any precip today and
tonight and have low dewpoints.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any SC cld cvr even ovr NE ptns of the FA should dissipate and
move E of the Rgn Thu Eve as thew upper trof moves E and winds
become lgt with the apch of a sprawling large and strong Can
high pres system. Ovrngt low temps will be chilly with decent
radiational cooling spcly ovr NW vlys where some lctns will
experience lows of mid to upper teens. After chilly start Fri
Morn, temps will recover to Aftn high temps closer to climo
values Fri Aftn under msly sunny skies.

After another clr cool, calm ngt Fri Ngt (but not quite as cold
as Thu Ngt) as strong sfc high pres remains ovr the FA, the
warming trend will cont Sat under sunny skies and lgt winds as
an upper ridge amplify just W of the Rgn, with most low trrn
inland lctns reaching abv normal Aftn high temps of arnd 60 deg
F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long range will feature and open upper E-W blocking pattern
between the the NW Atlc and the lower Great Lks. This will keep
the Rgn msly dry thru Mon before the upper ridge gets flattened
by a s/wv alf from S Cntrl Can Mon Ngt into Tue. A weak band of
warm front shwrs may reach msly Wrn ptns of the FA Sun Aftn
into Sun Ngt before dissipating, with little if any measurable
rn.

More sig rnfl will reach spcly Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA later
Mon Ngt into Tue where PoPs reach the likely range by blended
long range guidance. In addition, some models, like the 12z
dtmnstc ECMWF indicate a back door cold frontal passage late Mon
Ngt, which could make high temps Tue much cooler than blended
long range model guidance gives for this day, so low confidence
on this parameter attm.

Models are very uncertain regarding what happens after Tue`s
s/wv moves E of the FA Tue Eve, with some models like the 12z
dtmnstc GFS indicating a stronger s/wv alf arriving from S Cntrl
Can by late Wed, while the corresponding ECMWF shows more zonal
flow alf Wed and drier conditions. The 12z CanGem has a
considerable phase difference of s/wvs from the other two major
models, with Tue`s s/wv arriving on Wed for our FA and Wed`s
s/wv on Thu. For now, we just trended PoPs downward to Chc shwrs
for most of the FA by Wed. Given these model differences, low
confidence must be given to both temps and PoPs on Wed attm.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly MVFR from HUL northward through around 03z
with -SN and -SHSN. Mainly VFR at southern terminals this
evening. All terminals will improve to VFR after 03z for the
rest of the night and through Thursday. NW winds 15-20kts,
gusting 30-35kts this evening. Decreasing to 10-15kts, gusting
20-30kts late tonight and Thursday. LLWS possible tonight
through early Thursday morning.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Thu Ngt - Sun...All TAF sites Unlmtd VFR
with lgt winds.

Sun Ngt - Mon...All TAF sites VFR clgs. Isold shwrs mainly Sun
Ngt. Lgt winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory continues through tonight and
Thursday morning with high winds and seas. A few gusts to near
Gale force are possible this evening, but not enough to justify
a warning. By Thursday afternoon, winds and seas will decrease
below SCA levels.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd with msly lgt winds and low
wv hts. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts
with wvs composed of two wv groups; a short fetch 3-5sec group
and a semi-swell 8-10 sec group.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/LaFlash
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Clark/LaFlash/VJN
Marine...Clark/LaFlash/VJN