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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 150221
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1021 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1015 PM UPDATE: BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL PERSISTING AT THIS HOUR. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AND ALL ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY
MORNING. ALSO BUMPED UP TONIGHT`S LOWS SLIGHTLY. FINALLY, RAISED
POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LVL S/WV CROSSING THE FA FROM QB...LLVL COOL
ADVCN WILL BRING DRIER SFC DWPTS AND CLRG TO THE REGION LATE TNGT
AND ERLY SAT MORN. SAT WILL BEGIN MCLR...BUT ANOTHER S/WV
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BUT TIGHT MID LVL VORTEX FROM HUDSON BAY
TRACKING ESE N OF THE FA INTO THE CAN MARITIMES WILL BRING SOME
CLDNSS TO THE FA BY AFTN AND PERHAPS ANOTHER CHC OF SHWRS AHEAD OF
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE INTO NW PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT EVE. NW WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 25 TO 30 MPH MIDDAY AND AFTN
SAT DUE TO A STRONGER PRES GRAD AT THE SFC AND WINDS ALF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING
IN MUCH DRIER AIR. AS SUCH, SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, RAIN RETURNS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN MAINE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, IT RETURNS MONDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT, IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR COME MONDAY. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (AWAY FROM THE
COAST) AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE FRONT`S POSITION (QUEBEC VS MAINE), SO HAVE
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE) FOR CONSISTENCY. ALSO OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH LOCATION ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS THE TIMING. THE
00/06Z GFS BRINGS A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE LARGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW BUT IS A BIT SLOWER WITH TIMING. EITHER SCENARIO WOULD
BRING DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 12Z GFS STILL HAS SAME TIMING WITH
INITIAL LOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL LOW FOR WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z CMC DOES INTRODUCE THE
SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY BUT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS.
CONDITIONS DO IMPROVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STAYING NEAR
NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL SITES THRU SAT...XCPT BRIEFLY MVFR IN HVY
RNFL LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE IN ANY TSTM OR HEAVIER SHWR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE REGION.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
AT KBHB AND KBGR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED ATTM. THE ONLY CONCERN IS SWELL
COMING BACK BACK AROUND THE W END OF NOVA SCOTIA BY SAT AS THE
DEPARTING LOW MOVES INTO THE OPEN N ATLC. USED WW3 WITH SWAN NAM
SMOOTHED NEAR THE COASTLINE TO REDUCE COASTLINE WV HTS TO AROUND
1 TO 2 FT.

SHORT TERM: A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH ANOTHER TO COME LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/