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000
FXUS61 KCAR 162329
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
729 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
THOUGH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1930 PM UPDATE: THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA.
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN IN WASHINGTON COUNTY OTHERWISE EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATED TO BRING GRIDS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SFC AND UPPER LOW PRES OVR FAR NRN MAINE/SRN
QUEBEC ATTM... THIS RESULTING IN MOIST CYC FLOW AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. INSTABILITY A MAX ACROSS OUR E CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE THE ATMOS HAS BECOME MOST UNSTABLE ON THE GRADIENT
BTWN THE DENSE CLDS N AND SCTD CLDS AND MUCH MORE HEATING S.
ACTUALLY SEEING SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE STORMS LAST HR W/ NUMEROUS
RPTS OF LG PEA-SIZED HAIL W/ THE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN
SPOTS. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO MV EWRD INTO WRN/SWRN NB NXT HR
OR SO W/ SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AREA LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AS THE UPPER AND SFC LOW MV E AND
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH W/ THE LOSS OF HEATING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WILL CONT LATER TNGT THRU FRI THO SOME INSTABILITY AND
LINGERING MOISTURE LIKELY TO LEAD TO MAINLY CLDY SKIES AGAIN
ACROSS THE N ALONG W/ A FEW SPOTTY LGT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
PSBL... OVERALL...MOST UNSETTLED AND RATHER COOL ACROSS THE N W/
BETTER CONDS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA W/ DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS A
FACTOR THRU THE PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THEN CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FOR
POPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS40...SREF AND ECMWF. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS FOR WINDS. WILL USE 150 PERCENT OF
SUSTAINED WIND FOR GUST SPEED. TEMPERATURE GRIDS INITIALIZED FROM
THE GMOS. WILL LOWER RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY MORNING AND
LOWER MAXIMUM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES. WILL USE
CANADIAN FOR DEW POINT. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM..GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME UNSETTLED FOR
THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAVERS ACROSSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS.
HOWEVER MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE SPECIFIC DAY TO DAY DETAILS
OF THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME. DECIDED TO UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND OF GMOS ALONG
WITH THE RAW GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM GLOBAL FOR THE FORECAST. THE
UPSHOT IN THE GRIDS IS A FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN IMPROVING TREND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW VFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES INTO THIS EVE W/
SHOWERS THEN LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO SOME MVFR FROM LATE EVE THRU
ERLY FRI AM THEN BACK TO VFR. VFR CONDS THRU THE PD EXPECTED AT
OUR SRN TAF SITES...

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ...EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS THRU 08Z FRI...
THEREAFTER...WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS.

SHORT TERM:
HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR
GUST SPEED WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE GROUP EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 3
FEET WITH 8 TO 90 SECOND PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ACOMPANIED BY
SECONDARY NORTHEAST WIND WAVE SATURDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NORTON
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/KHW/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/KHW/MIGNONE