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000
FXUS61 KCAR 122252
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
652 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH LATER MONDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
650 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES TO BRING THEM IN LINE
W/THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST 21Z ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA AS WEAK LOW PRES HEADS INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING
OUT OF NORTHERN MAINE W/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM SOUTHERN
MAINE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROF AND COLDER AIR ALOFT.

THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE POPS BACK SOME USING THE RADAR TRENDS AND
THE 18Z RUC/RAP SHOWING SCATTERED PRECIP THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ENDING. ADJUSTED THE CLOUDS USING THE LATEST CANADIAN GEM
WHICH IS ALIGNING WELL W/LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEARING MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

ONE LAST THING, ADDED FOG FOR THE DOWNEAST AND COAST THROUGH LATE
EVENING DUE TO THIS CLEARING AND MOIST GROUND. BHB ALREADY DOWN
HAS VSBY BELOW 1/2 OF A MILE AND WEB CAMS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.

A CHILLY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE TO BRING
CHILLY AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S DOWNEAST.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. DOWNEAST AREAS WILL TURN OUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SURFACE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FROST COULD BE A CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED. THE UPPER TROF CROSSES
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TUESDAY. AN OCEAN LOW
LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW AND WHETHER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE BASED THE
FORECAST ON A LOW TRACK WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE
REGION AND ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST MORE
RAPIDLY. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS. PATCHY FROST COULD AGAIN BE A CONCERN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THE TAIL OF A WEAK RIDGE MOVING EAST A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT WITH
06Z GFS/00Z CMC BEING MODESTLY ROBUST WITH QPF COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF WHICH HAS LITTLE TO NONE. THE LATEST 12Z GFS RUN LOOKS A
BIT MORE ROBUST BUT STILL THINKING LIGHT. AFTER THIS MOVES EAST
FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY NICE AS TEMPERATURE MODERATE. THE MODELS
AGAIN GET FAIRLY DIVERGENT AFTER THIS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE 06Z GFS
BRINGS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST 12Z GFS HAS SIMILAR SOLUTION TO 06Z
GFS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP A LITTLE EARLIER AND DEEPER WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER LEVEL THOUGH. CURRENT GRIDS SEEM TO BE A FAIR
COMPROMISE FOR THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SO WILL TREND TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OUT GOING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING
DOWNEAST AND LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES THURSDAY THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR
GOING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA WILL REMAIN UP FOR SEAS TONIGHT AND WINDS AND
SEAS ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST OVER 25 KT ON
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HEWITT/NORCROSS