000
FXUS61 KCAR 190527
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 0130 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONS.

A COLD UPPER LOW IN SRN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL MARCH
EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE WED. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL
MERGE WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
TRACK NE AND PASS EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WED. HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER WRN NY
STATE BY 00Z THU.

CU COVERS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS. THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THE CLOUDS MAY
HANG ON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE CU IN THE NORTH BREAKS UP/DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW
PATCHES MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD OUT INTO AN AREA(S) OF STRATOCU
OVERNIGHT.

THE AIR MASS IS COLD ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL
DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS ZONES 1 AND 3...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AND WITH A BIT OF WIND AS THE HIGH CENTER IS STILL WELL
WEST OF THE AREA THE THINKING IS THAT ANY FROST POTENTIAL IS
FAIRLY LOW AND WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...BUT WILL BRIEF THE INCOMING SHIFT
THAT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THERE MAYBE A FEW
RESIDUAL PATCHES OF STRATUS IN THE NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR A SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CU FIELD TO DEVELOP
IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH DON`T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT.
FOR SATURDAY WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID
PATTERN THAT WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND IN
THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.&&

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SO FAR JUNE HAS BEEN A DAMP MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL MUCH OF THE TIME AFTER A VERY WARM START THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS OF THE MONTH.  THE PATTERN APPEARS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHIFTING AS
THE LARGE SCALE HEMISPHERIC MODELS INDICATE A RETREAT OF THE POLAR
FRONT WITH A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS TO TAKE HOLD BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND THAT SHOULD FIRMLY BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A 90 DEGREE DAY BY TUE.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH HAVE 850 MB TEMPS TO +18C AND 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
+24C...THE WARMEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA COULD PUT THE BREAK ON THE HEAT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IF IT LEADS TO ENOUGH CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS.  IN
THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WED AM
IN PATCHES OF STRATOCU.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAIN THREAT OF WORSE CONDITIONS WILL COME FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 4 FT IN LONG PERIOD S-SE SWELL
THROUGH WED.

SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE