-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 171625
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1225 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1225 PM...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NRN NY STATE
EAST INTO SW MAINE. THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
STRONG THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE THERE WAS STRONG
SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AS OF NOON. THE THINKING REMAINS THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOVE
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME ONLY
PLANNING TO MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE....RADAR...AND OBSERVATIONS.

938 AM UPDATE...LOW PRES IN SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS 125 MILES
NW OF QUEBEC CITY AT 13Z WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
AND ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NRN AND WRN MAINE TOWARD
EVENING. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH SBCAPES OF 700-1200 J/KG. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHORTWAVES THAT GET EJECTED IN THE FLOW AROUND A DEEP UPPER
LOW JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY THAT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL TO
ENHANCE THE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND CAUSE A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG/BORDERLINE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY WIND WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT ANY OF THE
STORMS THAT REALLY GET GOING COULD HAVE SOME LARGER HAIL. THE HRRR
HAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING THAT DID NOT MATERIALIZE TO THE EXTENT THE MODEL WAS
SHOWING. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE
NOT RISING MUCH IN THE NORTH WHERE THE STRATUS IS THICKER. TEMPS
WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AND KEPT AS IS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE LOW STRATUS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY MIDDAY AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE MID SHIFTS HIGHS WILL REALIZED. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POP/SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

630 AM UPDATE:
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SEEN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING PER THE BAR
HARBOR METARS AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOME WEBCAMS IN THAT AREA.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 950 MBS. PATCHY
FOG THROUGHOUT THE CWA MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL
BURN OFF AFTER 8AM. LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK W/SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN SOME LOCALES ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE
MTNS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATER
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, BACKED DOWN THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CARRIED A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE CWA GETS INTO A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED W/TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LLVLS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AID IN LLVL
INSTABILITY. ALOFT, THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH W/MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES(700/500MBS) RUNNING -2C/-19C RESPECTIVELY. MDL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS W/SB CAPES OF
600-900J/KG W/THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
FCST TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FCST TO BE 6.0-6.5
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOSE TO 7.0 C/KM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LLVL
MOISTURE IN PLACE W/SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ADD TO THE
MIX. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS IN FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE ACTION
WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FCST
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO AROUND 60F. SW
WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE OUT THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECIDED TO
CARRY ENHANCED WORDING W/THE TSTMS INCLUDING THE BANGOR AND CALAIS
AREAS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTH FLOW HOLDING ON LONGER. QPF WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GEM/NAM12 AND GFS
AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT TO 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER
AMOUNTS(0.25") W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE 2ND AREA OVER
THE DOWNEAST REGION.

THINGS WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/PATCHY
FOG. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS. FOLLOWED
THE GEM AND NAM12 FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF GRIDS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GMOS FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL
INITIALIZE WITH GMOS AND WILL RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TWO
DEGREES BASED ON VERIFICATION. HAVE USED THE GEM FOR DEW POINT
GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST
POP AND SKY GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED ALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
HIGHER AND TO BETTER FIT THREE HOUR GMOS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: IFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMNINALS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
LIFT...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AT LEAST MVFR BY 18Z. SCT
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KBGR AND KBHB. STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL WILL BE A CONCERN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 FEET AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT BY THIS
EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY FETCH SETS W/A SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AVERAGING SPEEDS OF 10 KTS.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 AND WILL
USE 125 PERCENT OF THE MODEL BLEND FOR GUST SPEED. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SO LONG PERIOD WAVE WILL DOMINATE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP
2-3 FEET/8 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST GROUP 1-2
FEET/10 SECONDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE