000
FXUS61 KCAR 222234
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
634 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR WEST ON THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
633 PM UPDATE: UPDATED THE FCST TO INCLUDE DRIZZLE W/FOG OVER THE
DOWNEAST COAST. 22Z LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRIZZLE SETUP
W/LIGHT SSE FLOW IN LLVLS & DEEP MOISTURE W/DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE LATE EVENING.

WHATS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION OVER NH AND MA MAY MAKE IT INTO
PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE LATER THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE MORE STABLE AIR
ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INDICATED SOME HIGHER POPS LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS MAINLY AFTER 8
PM. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING.
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON
READINGS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT REGION WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS IT PULLS A COLD
FRONT EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS IT PARALLELS
THE FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. BIG QUESTION
ON THURSDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING THINGS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SB CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS SOME SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 30 TO 40 KTS. AGAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE AND THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MIGHT OCCUR ON
THURSDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE INDICATED
THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THURSDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY STORMS
WOULD BE SUB SEVERE BUT ANY STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
ALSO...INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PWATS RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERS OUT OF EASTERN MAINE SINCE THINKING IS THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN MORE STABLE HERE WITH MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. HAVE LEANED
CLOSER TO MOS MAV NOS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VRY COOL AND WET WX PTRN WILL DRIVE OUR WX THRU THE SHORT TERM
PD... THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT W/
OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE PD THO SOME DIFFS EXIST IN THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS. A SLOW MVG FRONTAL BNDRY IS FCST TO ENTER WRN/NWRN AREAS
THU NGT AND SLOWLY PUSH SEWRD ACROSS THE FA LATER THU NGT THRU FRI
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SFC WAVES LIFT NE ALONG THIS BNDRY. THIS FRONT
IS FCST TO FINALLY STALL JUST E AND SE OF THE FA BY LATER FRI
NGT/ERLY SAT AS A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD UP ALONG
THIS BNDRY W/ MOST MODELS POSITIONING SFC LOW PRES OVR THE GOM BY
12Z SAT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NE
THRU SAT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...VRY WET/COOL AND DREARY CONDS WILL RESULT W/
LITTLE HOPE OF ANY MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THESE TRENDS ATTM.

WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS N AND W THU EVE AND SPREAD THESE
HIGH POPS SEWRD THRU THU NGT W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS CONTG RGT THRU
SAT FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR NWRN AREAS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER THRU THE EVE HRS W/ THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO MOSTLY
DIMINISH BY MDNGT.

VRY CHILLY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BNDRY BY FRI AND THIS
COMBINED W/ ABUNDANT CLDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN FCST HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S N ON FRI AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE N ON SAT...

PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PD SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND .75 FAR NW
TO BTWN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACTUALLY...TEMPERATURES COULD
END UP BEING LOWER WITHOUT SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING CUT-OFF LOW. BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FINALLY BUILD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS 70F BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS.

SHORT TERM: POOR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS
A SLOW MVG FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION THU NGT/FRI AND
STALLS JUST E/SE OF THE AREA AS SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT LOWS LIFT
NEWRD UP ALONG THIS BNDRY. EXPECT WDSPRD IFR/MVFR THRU THE PD W/
ONLY SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT PSBL BY MON...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS DURING THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TIME THURSDAY. PATCHY
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 TO 3 NM IN FOG THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY MV INTO THE WATERS LATE
THU NGT AND FRI AND THEN STALL W/ SEVERAL SFC LOW PRES SYSTEMS
FCST TO LIFT NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY. PERSISTENT SRLY
WNDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP ELEVATE SEAS W/ GENERIC SCA
CONDS EXPECTED INTO FRI. WNDS WILL ABATE AS THIS FRONTAL BNDRY
STALLS OVR THE WATERS BUT EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF ELEVATED SEAS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SCA HEADLINES INTO FRI WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/KHW