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000
FXUS61 KCAR 170723
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
323 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE W/STRATUS AND RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. STEADY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO NERN
MAINE AND WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC. 00Z UA SHOWED A NICE JETLET AT 700MBS ENHANCING THE
RAINFALL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE W/AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS AS OF
06Z. TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS(SOUTH OF THE FRONT) AND IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE IN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT. THE REGIONAL GEM AND RUC WERE HANDLING THIS LATEST
SITUATION THE BEST AND THIS HOW THE FORECAST WAS RUN THROUGH THIS
MORNING W/CLOUDS, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME FOG.

THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND THE CWA GETS INTO A PSEUDO WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION
W/SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED W/TEMPERATURES HITTING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LLVLS WILL WARM AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AID IN LLVL INSTABILITY.
ALOFT, THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH W/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES(700/500MBS)
RUNNING -2C/-19C RESPECTIVELY. MDL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS
SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS W/SB CAPES OF 600-900J/KG W/THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FCST TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
FCST TO BE 6.0-6.5 ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOSE TO 7.0 C/KM ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE W/SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
ADD TO THE MIX. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE
ACTION WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FCST
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO AROUND 60F. SW
WIND SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE OUT THE STABLE
MARINE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DECIDED TO
CARRY ENHANCED WORDING W/THE TSTMS INCLUDING THE BANGOR AND CALAIS
AREAS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTH FLOW HOLDING ON LONGER. QPF WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GEM/NAM12 AND GFS
AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT TO 2 AREAS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS(0.25")
W/ONE AREA ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE 2ND AREA OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION.

THINGS WILL WIND DOWN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/PATCHY
FOG. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS. FOLLOWED
THE GEM AND NAM12 FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS...SREF...NAM AND ECMWF FOR POP AND QPF GRIDS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GMOS FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL
INITIALIZE WITH GMOS AND WILL RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TWO
DEGREES BASED ON VERIFICATION. HAVE USED THE GEM FOR DEW POINT
GRIDS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE GMOS TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST
POP AND SKY GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED ALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
HIGHER AND TO BETTER FIT THREE HOUR GMOS.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. WIND
SHEAR AND SMALL WILL BE A CONCERN. DAYCREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE AWW FOR BIA THIS AFTERNOON IF TSTMS FIRE.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES FOR THIS TERM. WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ADJUSTED
TO BRING THEM UP A FOOT W/A FCST OF 5 FT BY THIS EVENING AS A SOUTHERLY
FETCH SETS W/A SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AVERAGING SPEEDS
OF 10 KTS. DECIDED ON THE NAM12/GFS40 AND GEM FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS.

SHORT TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 AND WILL
USE 125 PERCENT OF THE MODEL BLEND FOR GUST SPEED. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
SO LONG PERIOD WAVE WILL DOMINATE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP
2-3 FEET/8 SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEAST GROUP 1-2
FEET/10 SECONDS.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE