000
FXUS61 KCAR 160402
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1202 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CROSS
NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12AM UPDATE...
DECREASED QPF FOR TONIGHT AS FRONT IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.
ADJUSTED FOG AREA TO MOSTLY DOWN EAST WHERE HIGHEST HUMIDITY WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. INCREASED QPF FOR THURSDAY AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BUILD DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUE ALL AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN
NORTHERN ZONES.

10 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED POPS/WX BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

7 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MAINLY WHERE RAIN HAS MOVED IN. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTING THE FA ATTM W/ HIGH CLDS
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF AND SFC OCLN ALREADY
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WRN HALF OF OUR STATE... FCST APPEARS
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD AND ON TRACK ATTM SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS THIS EVE
AND REACH ERN/NERN AREAS BY MDNGT. CONDS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM
W-E AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCLN LATE TNGT/ERLY THU THO
EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDS W/A GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE N AS
LINGERING SFC AND UPPER LOW PRES SLIDE ACROSS FAR NRN MAINE/SRN
QUEBEC.

CLDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS THE
N ON THU W/ MAXES EXPECTED ABOUT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
FURTHER S EXPECT TEMPS NR SEASONAL NORMS W/ MORE SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING WNDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE AWAY TO NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD THEN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOW BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF FOR
POPS. FOR WIND USED BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND THE GMOS. TEMPERATURE
GRIDS INITIALIZED WITH THE GMOS THEN ADJUSTED MANUALLY. DEW POINT
GENERATED WITH THE CANADIAN.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION DURING THE WORKWEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD OR NEARLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
SOME FROST CONCERNS. FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN THE 30S, THOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS HITTING THE 20S IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT SUFFICIENTLY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
SHOWER CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIKELY
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRICKY DURING THIS PERIOD DEPENDING ON WHERE
FRONT THE FRONT SETS UP. OBVIOUSLY, THERE ARE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT THIS FAR OUT. SOME WARM AIR WILL
POSITION ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (ESPECIALLY WARM PER 0Z
ECMWF), BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCES OF THIS AIRMASS
GETTING INTO OUR AREA ARE PRETTY SMALL. INSTEAD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATER THIS EVE
DOWNEAST AND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MDNGT AT THE NRN TAF SITES.
CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BEHIND THE SFC OCLN LATE TNGT INTO
ERLY THU AM THO UNSETTLED CONDS ACROSS THE N ON THU AS A SFC AND
UPPER LOW CROSS FAR NRN AREAS COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
BRIEF PDS OF MVFR SPCLY DURING THE AFTN HRS.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT SCA HEADLINES TONIGHT W/ THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW PRES TROF AND SFC OCLN FROM THE W. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR BUT AT LEAST ENUF TO GENERATE LOW-END
SCA WNDS AND THESE COMBINED W/ THE PERSISTENT SSERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SEAS ABV 5 FT BY THIS EVE.
LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WHILE WNDS SHOULD DECREASE BY
ERLY THU W/ THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCLN...APPEARS WAVES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THU NGT SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA TIL 08Z
FRI.

SHORT TERM: HAVE BLENDED THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WIND FOR GUSTS. FOR
WAVES: SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT MULTIPLE WAVE
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 8 TO 9 SECONDS. HAVE USED WNA/4
FOR WAVES. WILL EXTEND SCA UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RUNYAN/KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...RUNYAN/KHW/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...RUNYAN/KHW/MCW/MIGNONE