-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 131545
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1145 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY...THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NOON UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE REGION WITH
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE PINE TREE STATE.
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT, EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. ALSO CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, BUT GIVEN THE DRY
AIR AT THE SURFACE, THEY SHOULDN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF A VAN BUREN TO DOVER-FOXCROFT LINE WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR MID MAY, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S DOWNEAST. ADDING
TO THE CHILLY DAY WILL BE A BRISK SOUTHWEST BREEZE, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SECOND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AT THE SURFACE, ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO
SUBSIDE. AS SUCH, WE`RE EXPECTING TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES TO BE SOME
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, WITH SOME LOW-LYING SPOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SEEING UPPER 20S. FROST IS A POSSIBILITY ANYWHERE AWAY
FROM THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHATS LEFT OF ANN UPPER LVL TROF WILL CROSS THE FA ON TUE...BUT
WITH WITH DRY CAN AIR WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY
SOME SC/MID CLDNSS IS XPCTD...MSLY ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA.
HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S N AND ARND 60 DOWNEAST
BY LATE AFTN. MOST MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NW WINDS AND PERHAPS THE
WRN FRINGE OF HI CLDNSS WILL AFFECT ERN PTNS OF THE FA AT LEAST
THRU THE FIRST HLF OF THE NGT TUE NGT AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRES
MOVES N FROM THE OPEN ATLC INTO THE ERN MARITIMES. THIS COULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OVR THE NE/E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA
IF WIND SPEEDS KEEP A SFC BASED INVSN FROM FORMING. OUT WEST...
CLOSER TOO THE RIDGE AXIS....ANOTHER CLR...CALM NGT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FROST...MOST WIDESPREAD OVR PROTECTED NW VLYS...TO RE-FORM
LATE TUE NGT AS OVRNGT LOW TEMPS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH 30S ELSEWHERE.

ANY FROST THAT DOES FORM SHOULD MELT/SUBLIMATE DURING THE ERLY
MORN HRS WED AS THE STRONG MAY SUN TAKES OVER. HI TEMPS WED
SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND LGT WINDS. AFT MCLR SKIES ERLY...A FAST MOVG
S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF WARM ADVCN SHWRS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLDNSS OVRNGT WED WITH A CHC OF SHWRS LATE.
QPF WITH THESE SHWRS LOOKS TO BE LGT AT THIS TM...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ARND A TENTH OF AN INCH AS OVRNGT LOWS REMAIN
AOA 40 DEG F MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST SHWRS SHOULD END THU MORN AS THE INITIAL S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN
MOVES QUICKLY E OF THE FA. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR THU
AFTN...HI TEMPS MAY BE WARMER THAN PREV UPDATES...WHEN SLOWER
MOVEMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS ANTICIPATED. CLDS AND SHWRS WILL
THEN NOT BE TO FAR FROM NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROF AXIS FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS...WITH THE SFC LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THRU THE FA ON FRI ALONG
WITH A CHC OF SHWRS. DEPENDING ON THE TMG OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE
HOW WARM HI TEMPS WILL REACH ON FRI...WITH AN EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOT ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH AOA 70 DEG F FRI AFTN AS
PREV THOUGHT YSTDY ATTM. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...FRI NGT THRU
SUN LOOK SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH MCLDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND EVEN A FEW SHWRS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SPCLY FRI NGT INTO
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MAINLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CLGS/VSBY WITH SHWRS LATE WED NGT THRU FRI...SPCLY NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
MONDAY. SEAS ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY BLO SCA WIND/SEA CONDITIONS XPCTD...WITH
SCA WVS POSSIBLE LATE WED NGT THRU THU EVE WITH A BLO 25 KT WIND
SPEED LONG FETCH RETURN LLVL SRLY WIND DIRECTION AS SFC HI PRES
MOVES E THRU THE MARITIMES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/VJN