-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 130216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1016 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF MAINE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1010 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS A BIT MORE FOR
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS, AT THIS HOUR, A
BAND OF RAIN IS STILL AFFECTING AREAS FROM HOULTON SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARD LINCOLN TO JUST NORTH OF BANGOR. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES INCLUDING RAISING TONIGHT`S LOWS SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING
THE 12Z GEM REG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES SO...STEADIER RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SCT TO BKN CUMULUS
WITH THE UPPER LOW COLD/COLD POOL ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST MODELS HAVE MADE A SHARP SWRD TREND WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW MOVG ENE FROM THE MID ATLC STATES...RESULTING IN SHARPLY
REDUCED POPS FOR MUCH OF FRI ACROSS THE FA...SPCLY THE S HLF WHERE
WE PREVIOUSLY WERE FCSTNG LIKELY POPS. NOW THE FURTHEST N OVR LAND
WE INDICATE CHC POPS FOR STRATIFORM RNFL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
COASTAL DOWNEAST ZONES ON FRI...WITH LATE DAY AND EVE SHWRS AND
PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCIATED LATE AFTN FCST SBCAPES OF 200-400
J/KG OVR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH THE APCH OF A WEAKENING
SEPARATE NRN BR S/WV FROM CNTRL QB. HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY...BUT
NOT CERTAINLY BE INVERTED S TO N ACROSS THE FA DUE TO XPCTD
HI/MID CLD CVR OVR THE S HLF OF THE FA...WITH THIS FCST UPDATE
SHOWING LESS S TO N TEMP DIFFERENCE. LATER FCST UPDATES MAY NEED
TO RAISE HI TEMPS MORE FOR FRI...SPCLY DOWNEAST IF THE TDYS OPNL
12Z GFS ENDS UP VERIFYING.

BEHIND THE NRN BR S/WV SAT...LLVL NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY MODEST
COOL ADVCN...SHIFTING THE LATE AFTN MAX 925 MB TEMP THERMAL AXIS
TO DOWNEAST AREAS...ALG WITH DOWNSLOPE LLVL WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN WARMEST HI TEMPS OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA. STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD RESULT IN SFC WIND GUSTS REACHING 25 MPH OVR MUCH OF THE FA
SAT AFTN DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALF. MODELS ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER
WEAK S/WV ARRIVING FROM CNTRL CAN...PERHAPS RESULTING IN AFT/ERLY
EVE ISOLD SHWRS FOR MSLY NW PTNS OF THE FA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST. THIS WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH TO MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE SETUP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY MONDAY. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WHICH SOLUTION WILL PLAY
OUT HERE FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 06Z GFS IS A BIT
FASTER BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN SLOWER WITH
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS SHOWS A DOUBLE BARREL LOW SETUP WITH ONE SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND THE OTHER TRACKING ALONG THE MAINE COAST
LINE. THE 12Z GFS ALSO LENDS TO CLOSER TIMING WITH THE 00Z ECMWF.
EITHER SOLUTION WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP GOING INTO
TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI...VFR THRU THURSDAY BUT PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT IN
LCL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

KHUL/KBGR/KBHB...MVFR IN LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY
FOG.

SHORT TERM: ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MSLY VFR THU NGT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SEAS THROUGH
2 AM...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA MOVES EAST. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS WITH THE
TRACK OF THE MID ATLC LOW FURTHER S AND WITH LESS INTENSITY...WE
ARE CURRENTLY FCSTNG NO HDLNS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND SCA CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT THE LAST 3 MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER S WITH THE
WIND FIELD WITH THE MID ATLC LOW AS IT TRACKS WELL S OF OUR
WATERS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z VS 06Z WW3 WV GUIDANCE TO TRY
KEEP FROM MAKING LARGE WHOLE SALE CHGS TO FCST WV HTS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/FITZSIMMONS/VJN