000
FXUS61 KCAR 131007
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...MODIFIED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
IN NORTHEAST AREAS WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM SOMERSET
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO HANCOCK COUNTY. SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.

A BAND OF CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE DOWNEAST
REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BRINGS SOME SUBSIDENCE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TODAY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS A SMALL BUT INTENSE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A TRACK OF THIS LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW MAY TRACK NEAR ENOUGH TO
THE AREA TO BRUSH THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SO WILL
INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG COASTAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT.
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY...WHILE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE LOW WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...POSSIBLY JUST CLIPPING THE DOWNEAST
COAST. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL EXIST WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHEN
DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
COULD ALSO EXIST TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND THE
LOSS OF HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
SATURDAY...WHILE A TROF DROPS SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE.
GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST SATURDAY. ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY...WITH AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK JUST NORTH OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY...THEN CROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A STEADIER RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
REGARDING WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OR IF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO COASTAL
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. EXCEPTIONS COULD OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST IF THE STEADIER RAIN IS ABLE TO REACH THE
COAST WITH LOWER CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY...DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS