-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 250523
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
123 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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120 AM UPDATE: LATEST 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITTING ALONG EASTERN MAINE AND LOW PRES SLOWLY LIFTING N FROM SE MA.
ADJUSTED THE POPS TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING
STEADIEST RAFL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST UNDER AREA OF DECENT
FORCING AT 850-700MBS AND THETA E GRADIENT PER THE NAM12 AND RUC.
QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THIS TREND AS WELL SHOWING
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE NNE AND WNW
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE CURRENT OBS SHOWING
LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT TO UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S OUT WEST AND STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NNE
AND DOWNEAST AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
STREAMING NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND CUTOFF
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AROUND THIS
SYSTEM KEEPING RAINY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND
WEST TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE SAT EVENING AND TRACK INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
SUN EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON MEMORIAL
DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP IT QUITE COOL AND
WET SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES SUN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT BY THE EAST OF THE
AREA. MEMORIAL DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL LIKELY START WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THE SKY MAY BRIGHTEN UP SOME
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE DAY LOOKS RAIN-FREE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT SOME MON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S WITH FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH TO POSSIBLY
TOP 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH DOMINATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING THE
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.
WEAK DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY ALL TERMINALS IN LOWER CIGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR MUCH OF TIME INTO MON MORNING IN LOW
STRATUS...RAIN & FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SLOWLY MON
AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: RESIDUAL SE SWELL FROM LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF  MAINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH SEA/SWELL 6-8 FT INTO SUN
EVENING. THE SEA/SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT
AND REMAIN SUB ADVISORY MON-TUE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.
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&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT